$50 billion vanished into thin air: Unrest in Iran grows over economic turmoil

"The regime anticipates demonstrations and uprisings. They understand that things are very fragile."

By PELED ARBELI JANUARY 10, 2025 12:58

Illustrative image of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (photo credit: Canva, REUTERS/MAHMOUD HASSANO, SANA/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)

Iran’s public discontent surged in recent weeks as economic hardships, including widespread power outages and rising inflation, fueled calls for change, Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) researcher Benny Sabti told Maariv on Friday.

Sabti began by describing the growing frustration among the Iranian population. "People are very angry with the regime for squandering funds, oil revenues, and resources on Syria, which fell alongside Hezbollah," he said. "The regime has poured $50 billion into Syria from 2000 until now, all of which vanished into thin air, along with funds sent to Lebanon and other places." According to Sabti, the Iranian public views this as "a regime failure."

Sabti believes recent events have given Iranians hope. He pointed to key incidents, such as the reported elimination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, which exposed the Iranian regime’s vulnerabilities, and "the fall of Gaza." He emphasized: "All of this gives the Iranian public—80% of whom oppose the regime—hope."

Sabti cited a parliamentary member’s report attributing the opposition level to the low voter turnout in the last presidential elections.

Sabti described worsening living conditions: "There are daily power outages lasting six to seven hours in Tehran and across the country, with even longer outages in remote areas. Water shortages follow the power cuts, and air pollution worsens because there isn’t enough clean gas to heat factories and homes. Instead, they burn ship fuel, which causes severe pollution until it’s stopped. The result is freezing temperatures and city shutdowns." He added: "On some days, people are forbidden to leave their homes—children, adults, government offices, and banks alike."

An anti-Israel billboard with a picture of Iranian missiles is seen on a street in Tehran, Iran April 19, 2024. (credit: MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)

The economic crisis is severe. The ongoing shortages of electricity and gas have halted much of the industrial sector. Sabti noted that the unemployment rate, which was already 23%, had risen by an additional 12 percentage points.

"While small protests by workers occasionally occur near their factories, these have not escalated into a large-scale movement," he said. "However, even these scattered demonstrations worry the regime."

Sabti highlighted a significant development: the Iranian regime’s recent protest-response drill. "Why would they hold a protest drill?" he asked rhetorically. "The regime anticipates demonstrations and uprisings."

"They understand that things are very fragile," he warned.

Sending mixed signals to the public

Sabti also noted the regime’s growing anxiety over its perceived failures. "On one hand, they threaten retaliation against Israel. On the other, an Iranian general recently admitted, 'We’ve been defeated.'" Another official reportedly stated: "We cannot retaliate against Israel or launch a third operation."

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Sabti reminded readers that Iran’s second offensive against Israel came at an enormous financial cost.

The regime faces soaring inflation. Sabti highlighted the rapid rise in the value of the dollar, from 460,000–480,000 rials to 820,000 rials. "Since imports depend on the dollar, the regime cannot ignore the exchange rate," he explained.

He added that many Iranians are willing to "endure a little longer" but are counting on international pressure and intervention to weaken and overthrow the regime. "They hope for Trump's return and believe he will enact significant changes. They admire Israel’s decisive actions and even call for strikes on Revolutionary Guard facilities that oppress them."

Sabti concluded with a sobering assessment: "The events are converging—this is a decisive year." He added: "The regime talks about racing toward nuclear capabilities, but how will they achieve this?" He answered bluntly: "It’s suicide."