After Assad’s Fall, Uncertainty Reigns

Syrians across Europe are celebrating in the street, displaced nationals are streaming homeward, and in Syria, citizens are waving the national flag in jubilation. But while no one should be anything but glad to see the evil Assad fall, it’s unlikely that this sudden turn of events will end up being favorable for the U.S., Israel, or the cause of freedom.

And considering that the rebels who executed the successful coup d’état are Islamist fanatics – and that Hamas was among those congratulating them – we can expect that the Syrian people will soon simply owe their misery to a new regime, and that Israel will face as much, if not more, danger from its neighbor to the northeast. It would be foolish to take these rebels at their word about anything; they say they will respect women’s rights, but so did the Taliban when it took over Afghanistan. Assad may be history, but Syria is certainly not in line to become the next member of the Abraham Accords.

In the short term, however, the tohu va’vohu created by the coup might buy time for Israel to achieve key military goals (indeed, the IDF quickly took control of the Syrian side of Mt. Hermon this week), as Hezbollah awaits further marching orders from an increasingly chastened Iran. Hopefully, the amputation of its longest, most powerful tentacle will, at least temporarily, hamper Tehran’s ability to keep the terrorists on Israel’s Lebanese border fortified with arms and manpower.

One of the only predictable aspects of this coup has been Russia giving safe harbor to Assad, thereby removing any doubt about its loyalties in the Middle East and further distancing itself from the West.

Perhaps the most important takeaway from the upheaval in Damascus is that none of us saw it coming. That’s because there’s no such thing as free journalism in the Islamic world – witness the uniformly propagandized foreign reporting out of Gaza – and so far there do not appear to have been any intelligence leaks. The more you know, the more you know you don’t know, Aristotle reportedly said. Our own finite awareness stands in stark contradistinction to Hashem’s omniscience – and it is to Him that we must redouble our prayers for the safety of Israel and the Jewish people in this tumultuous world.