After Greek Earthquakes, Israel Faces Tough Questions on Tsunami Preparedness

Pesach Benson and Noa Aidan 

As a series of earthquakes in the Greek islands of the Aegean Sea raised concerns of a tsunami hitting Israel, an expert told The Press Service of Israel that the phenomenon is difficult to predict and that Israel is not prepared.

The Greek islands of Santorini and Amorgos have been rattled by earthquakes and tremors since Feb. 1, with the strongest being 5.3 on the Richter scale. The area of the Aegean Sea between Greece, Cyprus and Turkey is dotted with volcanic islands, but Greek officials said the tremors are tectonic in nature and not volcanic.

A tsunami is a series of powerful ocean waves caused by large disturbances in the sea, such as underwater earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, or landslides. The waves travel at high speeds across vast distances and grow significantly in height when they approach shallow coastal areas, leading to widespread destruction. Unlike regular ocean waves, tsunamis are not caused by wind but by the sudden displacement of large amounts of water. They can result in flooding, strong currents, and extensive damage to coastal communities.

With the epicenter being about 900 km away from Israel, the Deputy Head of the National Security Council held an urgent meeting on Israel’s tsunami preparedness with the chiefs of various emergency bodies, ministries, and the army. Israel is also preparing for the possibility of dispatching to Greece a delegation of rescue and humanitarian aid workers.

“Based on past experience, an earthquake swarm of this nature could lead to a strong earthquake,” the Council concluded. “There is a potential impact on Israel due to the risk of a tsunami wave.” Based on the distance, the Council estimated that Israel will have a two-hour warning time for a tsunami following a strong earthquake.

Meanwhile, Israel has not issued any travel warnings regarding Santorini.

Col. (Res.) Dr. Efraim Laor, one of Israel’s foremost experts on earthquakes, told The Press Service of Israel that it is very difficult to predict tsunamis or the effects they will have because they are so powerful.

“I won’t predict when there will be a tsunami,” he told TPS-IL. Israel’s most recent tsunami was in May 2021, “but that was a small one,” Laor stressed. “It reached about 13 centimeters, something like that.” He said that particular tsunami didn’t draw attention because “there was a war with Gaza — as if today there isn’t war in Gaza. So that was the last tsunami.”

He described Israel’s preparedness for tsunamis and earthquakes as “close to negligible” and called on the government to improve its readiness.

“There are some things – we’ve marked the beaches. On the Mediterranean coast. Hang all kinds of signs, wherever, spread them out when there are any. Too many of them, not in the right places,” Laor told TPS-IL.

“But the thing that I think is the most serious, is that the Israeli government has been delaying for many, many years from publishing the nature of the tsunami flood, the flood forecast. Because these are models,” Laor said. “Now, why is it important? There are things that must be along the coasts. A hotel doesn’t have to be in the flood zone. A desalination plant doesn’t have to be in the floodplain. It can be deeper in.”

Because Israel has not published the flood maps, there is no way to know which areas or how many Israelis would need to be evacuated.

He cited Haifa’s Rambam Hospital as an example. The medical complex has 1,100 beds, serves 2.5 million residents. Its parking facilities can be converted into the world’s largest underground fortified hospital.

“The thing that bothers me the most is Rambam Hospital. It’s in the floodplain,” Laor said. “Right now, the new Rambam Hospital, in the event of a tsunami from an earthquake, is a problem, not a solution. They knew. How do I know they knew? Because they invited me to give a lecture, in front of all their constituents, before they did it. But if the government had adopted the flood maps, it wouldn’t have allowed them to build.”

According to Home Front Command instructions, “Upon receiving a tsunami warning, immediately move at least one kilometer (0.6 miles) away from the shore,” with additional instructions for people who are indoors, in cars, or at the beach.

Asked if Israeli construction standards would withstand a tsunami, Laor said they simply wouldn’t.

“We visited tsunami zones. The effect is amazing. It’s strong, in a crazy way,” he explained.