Airstrike signals new strategy against Hezbollah - analysis

Israeli airstrikes target central Beirut, hitting areas beyond Hezbollah strongholds to further pressure the terrorist organization.

By SETH J. FRANTZMAN NOVEMBER 23, 2024 12:53 Updated: NOVEMBER 23, 2024 13:06

Smoke rises over Dahieh in Beirut's southern suburbs, after overnight Israeli air strikes, amid ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as seen from Sin El Fil, Lebanon, October 3, 2024. (photo credit: REUTERS/AMR ABDALLAH DALSH)

A major airstrike in central Beirut at four in the morning is raising eyebrows.

Locals described the attack as hitting the Basta area of central Beirut. A large building was destroyed. People initially suspected a high death toll due to the presence of people sheltering in the area who had fled other parts of Lebanon. However, initial reports say four were killed and two dozen injured. More updates will come out as the rubble is cleared.

 What is important in this strike is that there was no call for evacuation. It also is increasingly part of a pattern of strikes on areas outside of the Hezbollah stronghold of Dahieh.

“It marked the fourth Israeli airstrike this week targeting a central area of Beirut, where the bulk of Israel's attacks have targeted the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs. On Sunday, an Israeli airstrike killed a Hezbollah media official in the Ras al-Nabaa district of central Beirut,” Ynet noted.

It's possible that Hezbollah leaders are now fleeing Dahieh and other Hezbollah strongholds. Hezbollah spokesman Mohammed Afif was eliminated earlier this week also outside of the Hezbollah stronghold. Hezbollah may feel it must hide out in other areas of Beirut.

People stand on the rubble after an Israeli strike on a building that according to security sources killed Hezbollah's media relations chief Mohammad Afif in Ras Al- Nabaa, in Beirut, Lebanon November 17, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/Adnan Abidi TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)

Hezbollah exploits civilian areas

This aids Hezbollah because any airstrikes also harm communities that are not loyal to Hezbollah, such as Christians, Sunnis, or others. Hezbollah has always sought to exploit civilian areas of Lebanon; however, it has had difficulties penetrating or making inroads outside of Shi’ite areas.

 Hezbollah is now being pressured in Beirut and also in southern Lebanon. The IDF continues to advance against the group in the south. Reports in local media and online say that the IDF is pressuring Hezbollah along the coast near Naqoura and also near Khiam and Marjayoun.

These are key areas for the group. Hezbollah continues to fight and fire rockets. This shows that Hezbollah continued to have a large number of weapons. The group, however, may lack some command and control as many of its leaders and commanders have been killed.

The strikes in Beirut are important. Hezbollah is seeking to find a way to survive for a long war. It has said as much in recent statements. It wants to survive this round and keep part of itself intact.

To do this, it will have to improvise, and it will need better operational security. The recent strike in Beirut and other operations are clearly having an effect on Hezbollah. It remains to be seen what effect this has on ceasefire talks and other activities of the Iranian-backed proxy groups that have been attacking Is