Are Israel and Hamas about to reach a deal?

This week has been full of difficult news from Gaza. Omer Neutra, one of the hostages, was found to have been killed on October 7 and his body taken to Gaza, while the IDF also retrieved the body Itai Svirsky, another hostage.

At the same time incoming US President Donald Trump has demanded the hostages be released: “If the hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025, the date that I proudly assume Office as President of the United States, there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East, and for those in charge who perpetrated these atrocities against Humanity.”

Trump’s vow to make Hamas pay if the hostages are not returned has put new wind in the sails of a possible deal in Gaza. This has also come in the wake of a ceasefire in Lebanon. Israel launched operation Northern Arrows on September 23, intensifying airstrikes and a ground operation against the Iranian-backed terrorist group. The two month campaign appeared successful. Hezbollah lost thousands of fighters. Israel carried out a large number of airstrikes on Hezbollah munitions and rocket launchers. Israel was able to show that the Hezbollah bogeyman that could supposedly rain down destruction on Israel was partly a paper tiger.

The war in Lebanon has distracted from the war in Gaza. Hamas has counted on Israel getting fatigued by more than a year of fighting. While the early months of the campaign against Hamas after October 7 were intense and many Hamas members were eliminated, things slowed down in the spring of 2024. Since then Israel has not sought to completely defeat Hamas and remove it from Gaza. Instead the IDF has continued campaigns in certain neighbourhoods of Gaza.

In November 2023, when the first hostage deal took place, Israeli authorities said military pressure would bring more deals. However, there have been none. Instead, Hamas appeared to believe that international pressure would result in Israel being forced to stop the war. Hamas assumed that it could keep the hostages and play for time.

However, things have now changed. Israel has not been forced to stop the war. Israel is operating in northern Gaza, where it has eliminated more than 1,000 terrorists in Jabaliya, and it continues to expand its control of the Netzarim corridor south of Gaza city and also continues to hold on to the Egyptian border. The IDF has three divisions in Gaza, one in the north, one in Netzarim and one in the south. Israel has shown that it is willing to be resilient in terms of keeping up the fight.

Hamas may now think it can cut a deal prior to the Trump administration coming into office. This would enable it to try to stay in power in Gaza and get a respite from more than a year of fighting. Hamas might assume it can squeeze some kind of claim of victory out of the awful war it caused through the October 7 massacre. Hamas likely knows that if it waits until Trump takes over, that Israel will feel complete support to do whatever it wants in Gaza. Hamas has also lost the Hezbollah card to play. Hezbollah is weakened and no longer able to keep a second front open in northern Israel. Meanwhile Iran is distracted in Syria as the Syrian regime faces setbacks.

Hamas had gambled on the idea that it would be able to keep up the pressure on Israel via multiple Iranian-backed fronts. The Houthis in Yemen target ships, militias in Iraq use drones to attack Israel. Hamas thought this would keep Israel distracted. It also wanted to build on October 7 to try to get support in the West Bank. Hamas assumed that if it could get a hostage deal and get Israel to leave Gaza it would appear to be a winner. It assumed it could then leverage this to get power in the West Bank and take over from the Palestinian Authority. Now, Hamas likely feels more isolated. It sees that it hasn’t been able to get Israel to leave Gaza.

In any kind of deal there is always a question about which side wants it more. Israel has shown that it is willing to wait and also wage other wars to deter enemies. Hamas gambled on international pressure on Israel and also on Israel growing fatigued from the war. Hamas knew it would suffer losses but assumed it could withstand the losses.

Today Hamas continues to control central Gaza and it has shown an ability to recruit new members and to exploit humanitarian aid to stay in power. This is how Hamas has survived in the past, via working with international organisations and exploiting them to stay in power. Israel has sought to pressure these international organisations, such as UNRWA. The pressure may be working: UNRWA is often critical of Israel but its increasingly shrill statements betray its own sense that it is losing its grip on Gaza.

Reversing decades of Hamas rule and the way it controls Gaza will be difficult. However, after more than a year of war Hamas may be ready for a deal that gives it some respite. Israelis would also like a respite from one of the longest most traumatising wars in its history. Israel will want to deter enemies in the region and prevent any spillover from Gaza to the West Bank. Much is at stake. The pressure by Trump on Hamas and his willingness to push for a deal could have the necessary effect to get the ball rolling.

Seth J. Frantzman is the senior Middle East analyst for the Jerusalem Post, an adjunct Fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies and author of The October 7 War: Israel’s Battle for Security in Gaza (2024)