Assad’s Fall Creates New Era in Middle East

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Israel’s obliteration of Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon directly led to the astounding and abrupt ouster of Syrian dictator Bashar Assad by HTS rebels, a radical Islamic offshoot of al-Qaeda.

According to experts who spoke with JNS, this is very good for Israel though it does pose some dangers.

For decades, Syria posed a serious threat to the Jewish state, especially as the regime was backed by Russia and Iran.

But now, with Iran seriously weakened and Russia busy in Ukraine, Syria does not threaten Israel in the same way. Now is the time for Israel to permanently eliminate the Syrian threat on its border.

Many Israelis would like to see Israel annex the Syrian Golan, the part of the Heights placed under Syrian control as part of the 1974 agreement with Israel, ending the War of Attrition throughout the enclave following the Yom Kippur War.

But some experts warn against this.

Barak Bouks, a senior research fellow at the Department of Political Studies at Bar-Ilan University in Ramat Gan, told JNS Israel is “obligated” to the disengagement agreement.

Israel said its capture of the Syrian-held part of Mount Hermon is only for defense purposes as its peak controls a wide area and poses a danger should it be captured by extremist rebel groups.

To secure its northeastern border, Israel has extended its reach beyond the 1974 demilitarized zone and sent forces to create a new buffer zone to deter attacks by rebel forces.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described this as a “temporary defensive position,” necessitated by the abandonment of these areas by Syrian troops.

Bouks said that the bright side of Assad’s ouster is that his downfall has been accompanied by the expulsion of Iran from Syria, “affecting the ‘bridge’ between Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon through which Hezbollah accelerated its power build-up.”

Israel must now navigate between the unprecedented collapse of Syria and the loss of Iranian influence there, and the dangerous, unpredictable rebel groups now in control.

His al-Qaeda past

The al-Nusra Front, al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria, merged with several other hardline opposition groups to form Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Muhammad al-Julani, who is now using his real name Ahmed al-Sharaa, remains the leader of the al-Nusra Front, which is at the core of HTS.

But few if any, experts believe al-Sharaa has truly shaken off his al-Qaeda past.

And this is where Assad’s overthrow may not be good for Israel.

Al-Sharaa on Saturday spoke about Israel for the first time since the fall of the regime.

“We are not entering into conflict with Israel,” he said. “Israel is using the Iranian presence as an excuse to invade Syria. After the Iranians leave, there are no reasons for foreign interference in Syria.”

However, rebel groups are on record announcing their intention to conquer “al-Aqsa” in Jerusalem.

Al-Sharaa also said “the pretexts that Israel uses have ended” for its airstrikes inside Syria.

Since Assad fled, the IDF obliterated Syria’s air force and naval fleet, as well as other military sites that posed a danger to Israel. A reported 500 Israeli airstrikes in the past few days have destroyed much of the Syrian military’s assets.

Retired British Army Col. Richard Kemp called it a “strategic masterstroke.”

Al-Sharaa said “the Israelis have violated the rules of engagement,” speaking in an interview with Syrian TV on Saturday.

If it is the case that al-Sharaa intends only to rebuild Syria, Bouks told JNS he hopes democracy “will be manifested in the new government, manifesting the will of the various religions and sects in Syria.”

But so terrified are the Druze of HTS that on Friday, leaders and members of six villages in southern Syria held a meeting and decided they wanted to be annexed to the Israeli Golan Heights.

Hope after tyranny

According to Joel Parker, a researcher at Tel Aviv University’s Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, the situation in Syria is “no less dramatic than the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989.”

“While Assad was a passive-aggressive actor on Israel’s northern border for decades and generally kept things quiet, over time the Syrian regime developed chemical weapons, tried to start a nuclear program, invited Iran and its proxies to Syria, and served as a conduit for precision missiles to Hezbollah in Lebanon—all aimed at Israel,” he told JNS.

“The collapse of Syria’s ties to Hezbollah, Iran and Russia certainly lowers a number of huge threats from Syria, and again, gives the Syrian people a reason to hope again after decades of tyranny,” Parker said.

However, he added that while he stands by his optimistic approach, there are “serious risks ahead for Israel and the region, possibly even other parts of the world.

“The jihadi groups that led the charge against Assad are not pro-Israel,” Parker said.

His biggest concern “is that they will splinter into more and less extreme groups, creating a sense of chaos and anarchy in Syria. That could lead to terror attacks on Israel, especially if the central government cannot gain full control in the coming months and years.”

The Turkey-Lebanon axis

Also troubling for Israel is Ankara’s new role as Syria shifts from the Iran-Russia axis to the Turkey-Lebanon axis.

“Turkey is the main winner other than the actual rebels and the civilians in Syria,” Parker said. “This raises certain red flags for Israel, given that Turkey’s recent turn against Israel following Oct. 7 has shown that Turkey can be a problematic partner.”

Traditionally, Ankara and Jerusalem have cooperated in a number of areas, with trade growing to billions of dollars per year, but leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has exposed himself as an antisemite, siding with radical Islamists.

Relations with Turkey might thaw with an end to the war in Gaza, Parker said, “but it is also possible that the trajectory is negative, given that Israel has a mostly good relationship with Kurdish factions in Syria and Iraq, where Turkey has been actively fighting them.”

There could also be “a temporary period of chaos followed by a stabilization,” he suggested, adding that the situation is “dynamic.”

Parker is optimistic that even if there are breakaway groups in Syria that desire to harm Israel, “the overall trend will be toward warmer ties and potentially even a normalization deal later on down the road.”

He warned against Israel annexing the Syrian side of the Golan Heights, suggesting Israel “will only reap problems if it tries to grab Syrian territory.”

“It would create conflicts for decades to come,” he said.

On the other hand, Parker said, “this might be a good time to try and negotiate a permanent recognition of Israel’s control of the Israeli Golan Heights from the new Syrian government.

“There are plenty of carrots that could be used to get to that point, and Israel could use the potential of more land grabbing as a stick to threaten Syria if it refuses to recognize Israel’s permanent hold on the Golan Heights,” he said.

However, he stressed that “our goal should be normalization with Syria.”

Israel should remain prepared to defend itself, “but continue to patiently try to establish ties with the new regime,” Parker said.

“Israel might not get an opportunity to make peace with Syria once they elect a new government,” he said.

{Reposted from JNS}