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NATIONAL AFFAIRS: Netanyahu faces public and coalition concerns about the hostages, but he can't afford to have Trump see him as a weak leader.
By HERB KEINON FEBRUARY 13, 2025 20:14
US PRESIDENT Donald Trump has made clear what he would do if he were in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s shoes. If Netanyahu does not act accordingly, what will Trump think? Here, a demonstrator wearing a Trump mask holds a doll with a Netanyahu mask during a protest on Sunday in Tel Aviv.
(photo credit: JACK GUEZ/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES)
Up until Monday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in addition to his concern for the national interest and the well-being of the Hamas-held hostages, had to consider two other main factors when deciding whether to proceed to the second phase of the ceasefire/hostage deal: public opinion and coalition stability.
Regarding the public, various polls over the last week indicated that, with all the pain involved, it overwhelmingly supports going through to stage two of the deal – which is negotiating the release of the remaining hostages in exchange for an end to the war, a withdrawal of IDF forces from Gaza, and the release of hundreds of more Palestinian terrorists.
On Friday evening, before the national gut punch of seeing an emaciated Or Levy, Ohad Ben Ami, and Eli Sharabi released, 70% of the public backed moving forward. Twenty-one percent opposed. Notably, support extended even to coalition voters, with a 54%-36% split in favor.
A Channel 13 poll two days after last Saturday’s release found similar results: 67% backed proceeding to the second stage, while 19% preferred resuming the fighting in Gaza after the first stage.
So as far as public sentiment goes, Netanyahu has little doubt – a majority wants the deal to continue.
RZP, Trump, and Bibi
The second concern, the coalition, is trickier. The Religious Zionist Party, which holds eight seats – enough to bring down the government if it leaves the coalition – threatened to do just that if the IDF does not renew fighting after completion of the first stage on March 1. But that threat was made before US President Donald Trump put on the table his plan for the US to take control of Gaza and redevelop it after the bulk of its residents are relocated. This was also before Trump signaled that the US may give the green light to annex certain parts of Judea and Samaria.
Given these shifting dynamics, Netanyahu may no longer need to fear that RZP leader Bezalel Smotrich will actually pull the plug. Smotrich sees a historic opportunity under Trump to advance parts of his ideological vision. Would he really bring down a right-wing government when the political winds are finally in his favor? Netanyahu’s concern over his coalition is, therefore, less urgent than it was a few weeks ago.
But then Monday introduced a new and weighty consideration: Trump himself.
After Hamas threatened to withhold releasing the three hostages it is scheduled to set free on Saturday, Trump weighed in forcefully.
“As far as I’m concerned, if all of the hostages aren’t returned by Saturday at 12 o’clock, I think it’s an appropriate time. I would say, cancel it and all bets are off and let hell break out.”
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Trump went on to say that all of the hostages should be returned, apparently meaning all 76, both those dead and alive, currently being held in captivity, and not in “dribs and drabs – two and one and three and four and two – but all of them.”
Trump stressed that he was speaking for himself and that “Israel can override it,” but that from his vantage point, if all were not released by Saturday at noon, “all hell” should break out.
This presented Netanyahu with a new and sensitive dilemma.
Trump's demands
Trump has effectively given Israel the green light to take whatever military action it deems necessary to secure the release of the hostages.
If it decides to restart the war, so be it – that is fine – and Israel will be able to do so with confidence that the US will not cut off weapons supplies, will not lecture about the rules of engagement, will not repeat the ad nauseum line that the “way the war is fought matters,” and will not condemn Jerusalem if it decides to stop sending fuel and food supplies to its enemies.
But with that green light comes a new complication: What happens if Netanyahu doesn’t use it?
Trump has made clear what he would do if he were in Netanyahu’s shoes. If Netanyahu does not act accordingly – if, because of concern over the fate of the remaining hostages, he does not send the IDF back into Gaza in full force on Saturday at 12:05 p.m. – what will Trump think?
Will he think Netanyahu is weak? That is a perception Netanyahu cannot afford.
Trump respects strength. Weakness, in his eyes, is something he disdains, an attribute of losers. Netanyahu does not want to be seen as weak by Trump.
This isn’t just speculation; the president’s history with the prime minister offers a warning.
On January 3, 2020, the US fired a missile from a drone toward a car in Baghdad carrying Qasem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s Quds Force. Soleimani and the head of an Iraqi militia were killed instantly.
More than three years later, on October 12, 2023 – as Israel was reeling from the October 7 massacre – Trump, speaking at a campaign rally in Florida, said that Netanyahu let him down and did not participate in that attack as promised.
“Israel was going to do this with us, and it was being planned and worked on for months,” he said about the coordination to kill Soleimani. “We had everything all set to go, and the night before it happened, I got a call that Israel will not be participating in this attack.
“They didn’t tell us why,” he said, adding pointedly: “I’ll never forget that Bibi Netanyahu let us down. We were disappointed by that. Very disappointed.”
That incident and Netanyahu’s congratulatory call to Joe Biden after the 2020 presidential election caused tensions between the two leaders while Trump was out of office. However, the warm manner in which Trump welcomed Netanyahu to the White House earlier this month dispelled any indications of lingering hard feelings.
Nevertheless, the phrase “I’ll never forget that Bibi Netanyahu let us down” is not a phrase Netanyahu has likely forgotten either. Obviously, he does not want to let Trump down again or show the president that he is weak or afraid to act.Trump said that he wants to see all the hostages released – something Israel obviously shares.
But it is much easier for Trump to talk about deadlines, ultimatums, and all hell breaking loose. First, because it is not the US that will have to carry out the military action if the deal collapses. Trump is not saying the US will unleash hell on Gaza – only that he will allow Israel to do so if it chooses.
But what if Israel decides it isn’t ready for another major Gaza operation at this moment? What if it doesn’t have the public consensus for it?
If Israel restarts the war after Hamas - in line with the agreement - releases three hostages on Saturday, but not all of the remaining ones in one go, strong public support for a fierce military escalation while the other hostages are still languishing in Hamas captivity isn’t guaranteed. As the polls indicate, many want the first phase to conclude and to move to the second, so it’s unclear whether the public is prepared for an abrupt return to full-scale war.
Also, what happens to the remaining hostages if fighting resumes on Saturday at noon? Of the roughly 35 believed to be still alive, what would their fate be?
This is Israel’s dilemma in a way that it is not Trump’s. Not that he doesn’t care about the hostages – he certainly does – but, rather, because the emotional calculus is fundamentally different, and because the moral weight and societal ramifications of this decision rest much more heavily on Israel’s shoulders.
TRUMP’S DECLARATION caught Jerusalem off guard, which explains the confusion in Israel’s response to it.
Netanyahu, in a video statement Tuesday after a security cabinet meeting and clearly taking his cue from the president, said intense fighting would resume in Gaza if “our hostages” are not returned by Saturday at noon. It was not clear how many hostages Netanyahu had in mind, and an Israeli official told reporters later that Jerusalem expected that all nine living hostages who were to be released in the first stage would be let go in the coming days. Another senior official said that Israel was now demanding that all hostages be released. By Thursday, however, it appeared Jerusalem would suffice with Hamas releasing the three hostages it is committed to release under the agreement.
Once Trump throws down a gauntlet like this, Israel has little choice but to match his rhetoric – at least in declarations.
But one thing is certain: Israel is conveying to the Americans what it plans to do on Saturday, so there are no misunderstandings and no disappointments.
The Trump-Netanyahu relationship has gotten off to a strong start this presidential term. It would be ironic – and a shame – if it hit turbulence now because Trump is outflanking Netanyahu from the Right.
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