Can any of the plans for Gaza prevent a Hamas takeover?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flew to the US  this week for a meeting with US President Donald Trump. Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff met with four of the released hostages prior to the trip. The four IDF women soldiers had been freed in the hostage deal that Witkoff played a key role in sealing before Trump took office.

With the hostage deal continuing, there are questions about the future of Gaza. Trump has floated an idea for Palestinians in Gaza to move to Jordan, Egypt or other countries. It is not clear if he thinks they would relocate temporarily while Gaza is rebuilt or if this is a longer-term plan. Either way, the Arab states reject this idea and Palestinians are not likely to take the offer.

Nevertheless the concept of moving Gazans may not be really about actually moving abroad, it may be about creating creative ideas so that Arab states will step up to help reduce the conflict and invest in Gaza. The way Trump has crafted a doctrine in the past in many of his foreign policy dealings is to lay out large demands and then come to an agreement.

As Trump and his team float various ideas, Israel is focused more locally. These are complex days in Israel. While many Israelis are anxiously awaiting who will be released next from Gaza, they also know that eventually the hostage deal will face hurdles. The hurdles are multi-faceted. They include the fact that the deal was created in phases – the first part of the deal began in mid-January and is expected to last until the end of February. In this phase, 33 hostages are supposed to be released. However, it is known that not all the hostages are alive. Once Hamas begins handing over the dead bodies of hostages, many Israelis may not be as keen to continue the deal into subsequent phases.

On the other hand the hostage deal has given a much- needed respite to a long, gruelling war. The war that began on October 7 with the Hamas massacre of more than 1,000 people and the kidnapping of 250 is Israel’s toughest war in history. It is much more difficult than the Yom Kippur war, which lasted a small fraction of the time of this war. The war has also occurred on up to seven different fronts; in Gaza, Lebanon, the West Bank, Yemen, Syria, Iraq and Iran. Iran launched two large-scale attacks on Israel in 2024.

Israel continues to face threats on multiple fronts. However, some of these have been reduced. Israel’s new incoming IDF chief of staff Eyal Zimer has said that 2025 will continue to see the IDF fighting in various places. This is a hint that while Israel has ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon, it faces challenges on both fronts, as well as in the West Bank.

That leaves questions about the path forward in Gaza. Gaza was devastated by 15 months of war. Many areas have seen heavy fighting. However, not all of Gaza was affected in the same way. While Jabaliya and parts of northern Gaza were badly damaged, Gaza City and many central areas of the Strip did not see heavy fighting. The IDF never sent large forces into central Gaza and Hamas continued to control this area, which consists of four urban areas – Nuseirat, Deir al-Balah, Maghzai and Bureij. However, in Khan Younis and Rafah in southern Gaza the situation is more difficult for Gazans who want to return home. This mixed picture of Gaza means that reconstruction, if it happens, will take a long time in certain areas.
Over the years there have been many proposals for Gaza. This small area is heavily populated with around two million people and it has a high rate of demographic growth. What this means is that even without the disaster of Hamas misrule over the past two decades, and the disaster of the recent war, the area would face challenges.

The question that now faces the world is how to affect change in Gaza while Hamas continues in power. Hamas was not fully defeated in the 15 months of fighting since October 7. This may be because Hamas was holding hostages, which meant it could use them as shields to remain in power. However, that’s not the only reason Hamas remains powerful on the Strip.

It has also recruited new fighters since October 7. It has support from outside countries such as Qatar, which hosts Hamas leaders, and Turkey, whose government has backed Hamas for more than a decade. Turkey and Qatar are both Western allies. This means that Hamas has friends in high places.

It appears unlikely Hamas will be removed from Gaza. A more likely scenario is that Hamas might be convinced to play a part in some kind of unity government with other Palestinian factions or that it might surrender some aspects of its control over the borders or civil administration in Gaza. How might Hamas be convinced to do that? Clearly the only way for that to happen would be for US pressure to mount on Qatar to get Hamas to agree to some kind of power sharing.

Power sharing in Gaza wouldn’t be a magic wand to success though. Hamas may welcome power sharing in Gaza if it thinks it can get the same deal in the West Bank and use this as leverage to infiltrate the Palestinian Authority. That means Hamas may be looking to play a complex game going forward.

In the past Hamas often benefited from reconstruction, rebuilding its tunnels and terrorist infrastructure by siphoning off building materials and cash.

The international community, including various groups such as Unrwa and other institutions active in Gaza have never figured out a way to stop Hamas from benefiting and entrenching.The only way forward in Gaza is to find a way not to repeat the mistakes of the past, such as what happened after the 2009 and 2014 wars. For that to happen various ideas may be floated, but in the end they require a clear goal in mind for what will become of Gaza. So far no clear idea has been floated that explains how Gaza will be governed or function successfully in the future and not pose a threat to Israel or other countries. However Trump’s talks with Netanyahu went, that remains an issue.