Can Israeli strikes in Syria undermine Iran-backed militias?

4 weeks ago 47

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Iran, a key backer of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government, has built a significant military presence in Syria in recent years, supported by dozens of proxy groups, including Hezbollah and several Iraqi militias.

By Sirwan Kajjo, Middle East Forum

Strikes carried out by Israel in recent weeks in Syria have significantly weakened Iranian-backed militias, though they continue to pose a threat, experts say.

Since the start of the war in Gaza in October 2023, and the ongoing hostilities between Israel and the terrorist group Hezbollah in Lebanon, Israeli strikes in Syria have become more frequent, according to monitoring groups.

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which has researchers across Syria, reported last week it has documented over 150 Israeli strikes in Syria so far in 2024.

The strikes have hit targets belonging to Iranian-backed militias in several Syrian provinces, according to SOHR.

Last week, the Syrian government blamed Israel for an attack in the ancient town of Palmyra in central Syria that killed at least 36 people and wounded 50 others.

SOHR, which gave a much higher figure on casualties, said one of the strikes targeted a meeting involving some commanders of Hezbollah and the Iraqi group al-Nujaba.

Both Hezbollah and al-Nujaba are U.S.-designated terrorist organizations.

The Israeli military declined to comment on the attack, but it has previously acknowledged conducting strikes against Iranian-linked groups in Syria.

Phillip Smyth, an expert on Iranian-backed militias, said the Israeli strikes “are demonstrative of their goals to degrade the leadership elements within Lebanese Hezbollah” and other pro-Iranian terrorist groups in Syria.

“This would include those in Lebanon and Syria, particularly the latter, given how Hezbollah still needs to command its 3,000-7,500 [militants] that currently occupy the country,” he told VOA.

“These types of strikes eliminate people who are irreplaceable in other respects,” Smyth said. “They are loyal, are part of the early generations of leadership and have a good amount of control over a very closed organization.”

Another Israeli strike earlier this month hit a suburb near the Syrian capital, Damascus, killing at least 15 people, according to Syrian state media.

The Israeli military said the Palestinian Islamic Jihad group was the target of that attack, adding that it “inflicted significant damage to the terrorist organization’s command center and to its operatives.”

Ahmed Rahal, a former Syrian military general who defected from the army in 2012, stated that such attacks have created new dynamics for Iran and its proxies in Syria.

“Iran has moved some of its military advisers out of Syria,” he told VOA, noting that, “recent strikes against Islamic Jihad and even elements of the Syrian military show that Israel isn’t only targeting Iranian and Hezbollah forces but anything it deems a threat.”

Local media reports in Syria last week said that amid increased Israeli strikes, Iran transported some of its proxies from Syria to Iraq, including at least a dozen high-ranking military advisers who had been deployed in Damascus and Palmyra.

Seth Frantzman, an adjunct fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, offers a different explanation for the movement of Iranian proxies in the region.

“Iran may be moving proxies around Iraq and Syria in order to threaten Israel and may feel the need to move them more often so that they preserve operational security in case of Israeli retaliation,” he told VOA.

“Iran also likely wants to mobilize proxy forces in case of a ceasefire in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah so it can increase threats to Israel on other fronts,” Frantzman said.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry recently said there has been no change in the status or number of their military advisers in Syria.

Other experts argue that as long as pro-Iranian militias control the Iraq-Syria border, Israeli strikes are unlikely to prevent Tehran from sending weapons to Hezbollah and other proxies.

“These strikes may briefly disrupt the transport of men and weapons between Iraq and Syria, but these groups have shown their ability to adapt and resume their activities quickly,” said Omar Abu Layla, director of Deir Ezzor 24, a news and research network focused on eastern Syria.