Central Asia’s water crisis: A global problem requiring global solutions

The region’s vital water resources – such as the Caspian Sea, Aral Sea, and the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers – are rapidly depleting.

By GENEVIEVE DONNELLON-MAY DECEMBER 16, 2024 03:37

KAZAKH PRESIDENT Kassym-Jomart Tokayev delivers a statement during the UN Climate Change Conference, COP29, in Baku, Azerbaijan, last month. (photo credit: MAXIM SHEMETOV/REUTERS)

Water scarcity, affecting over two billion people worldwide, is one of the most pressing challenges of the 21st century. Climate change, population growth, and poor resource management exacerbate the crisis, threatening food security, public health, and economic stability. By 2050, water stress could reduce GDP in affected regions by up to 8% and heighten resource disputes, increasing conflict risks.

Central Asia is particularly vulnerable due to severe water scarcity and its global implications. The region’s vital water resources – such as the Caspian Sea, Aral Sea, and the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers – are rapidly depleting.

Over 82 million people across Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan rely on shared water for agriculture, industry, and daily life. Rising temperatures accelerate glacial melt in the Pamir and Tian Shan mountains, threatening long-term freshwater availability for upstream nations such as Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Outdated Soviet-era water infrastructure worsens the crisis, causing significant losses in irrigation and drinking water supply. 

The crisis extends beyond the region. The shrinking Caspian Sea, for example, threatens biodiversity and disrupts economic stability, including the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route – a key trade link between Asia and Europe.

Why it’s a global problem

Central Asia’s water crisis is a global issue with serious implications for trade, food security, migration, and geopolitical stability. As a key producer of crops such as wheat and cotton, disruptions to its water supply could drive up global food prices and worsen food insecurity worldwide. Competition over shared water resources, particularly between upstream and downstream nations, also raises the risk of conflict, threatening regional peace.

People attend the United Nations climate change conference COP29 opening in Baku, Azerbaijan November 11, 2024. (credit: MAXIM SHEMETOV/REUTERS)

This crisis poses a geopolitical threat with global ramifications. Instability in Central Asia could disrupt trade routes and security across the region. Neighboring China, a major trading partner, could face potential supply chain disruptions, rising food costs, and intensified competition for water, all jeopardizing its economic growth.

The situation is worsened by dwindling water supplies and increasing desertification, which could lead to mass migration, straining neighboring regions and threatening Eurasian stability.

Urgent, coordinated action is critical to managing Central Asia’s water resources and mitigating global impacts. Regional collaboration and international support are essential to ensuring long-term stability for Central Asia and beyond, as highlighted by initiatives like the recent One Water Summit in Riyadh, which seeks to accelerate action on Sustainable Development Goal 6 (clean water and sanitation) and discuss solutions to water challenges in preparation for the 2026 UN Water Conference.

Co-organized by France, Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia, and the World Bank, this summit brought together leaders of the three countries, as well as other government representatives and stakeholders to advance sustainable water management.

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev outlined Kazakhstan’s approach to tackling global and regional water challenges. Highlighting Kazakhstan’s commitment to universal access to clean water, he announced the country’s participation in the global Freshwater Challenge, focused on ensuring universal access to clean water for all, and proposed a Partnership for Global Glacier Research, emphasizing the vital role glaciers play in the water cycle and the need for collaborative action to prevent their disappearance. Additionally, Tokayev announced plans to host a UN-supported Regional Climate Conference in 2026.

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By providing a platform for dialogue and action, the One Water Summit emphasized the need for coordinated efforts to address water insecurity in Central Asia and beyond. While these efforts are a positive start, they must be expanded and strengthened to address the complexities of water scarcity, safeguarding both regional and global stability.

Potential solutions

Kazakhstan, the most industrialized nation in Central Asia, has taken a proactive role in addressing environmental and water challenges. Its Green Economy Plan, adopted in 2013, aims to generate 50% of energy from renewable sources by 2050, while its carbon neutrality strategy targets a 15% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2060. These efforts are complemented by a goal to increase the share of renewables in the energy mix from 3% to 15% and reduce coal’s share from 69% to 40%.

Additionally, Kazakhstan’s tree-planting campaign has seen 843 million trees planted between 2021 and 2023, with plans for 2 billion more by 2027. Such initiatives demonstrate how integrated approaches can align water management with environmental sustainability.

However, modernizing Central Asia’s water infrastructure is essential to resolving its water crisis. Tackling non-revenue water (NRW) – losses from leaks, illegal use, or unbilled consumption – is critical, as up to 60% of water is lost due to aging systems and poor management. Manila Water reduced NRW from 63% in 1997 to 12.69% by 2022 through upgrades, leak detection, and repairs, offering a model for Central Asia.

Agriculture, using 80–90% of the region’s water, must adopt sustainable practices. Crops like cotton, wheat, and rice dominate, employing over 10% of Kazakhstan’s population and 60% of Tajikistan’s. Technologies such as drip irrigation and infrastructure upgrades can improve water efficiency without reducing productivity.

Initiatives like China’s irrigation project in Kyrgyzstan, completed in 2021, demonstrate solutions, benefiting 20,000 people and improving irrigation across 11,100 hectares. Transboundary cooperation under frameworks such as the Water Convention is crucial for equitable water sharing as climate impacts intensify.

However, fragmented data hinders effective responses. Enhanced real-time data sharing through regional initiatives can address immediate challenges and build long-term resilience. Public-private partnerships and institutions like the Asian Development Bank and World Bank play key roles in supporting water-saving technologies and empowering local authorities for sustainable water management.

The One Water Summit has demonstrated the potential of international collaboration to tackle water crises, but stronger global engagement is required. 

Water scarcity is a shared challenge, and its solutions must be equally shared.

The writer is a researcher at the Oxford Global Society and an analyst for The Red Line podcast. She is interested in regional resource conflict and environmental governance in Asia and Africa.