Cost of ceasefire with Hezbollah: Senior defense official lays out terms for Lebanon truce

The terms will likely include a US letter of guarantees to Israel and American supervision of UNIFIL, among other protections.

By YONAH JEREMY BOB NOVEMBER 21, 2024 16:03

Smoke billows over Khiam, amid ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as pictured from Marjayoun, near the border with Israel, Lebanon October 30, 2024. (photo credit: REUTERS/KARAMALLAH DAHER)

A ceasefire with Hezbollah and Lebanon will most likely include a phased 60 day withdrawal by the IDF from southern Lebanon, with no leftover security perimeter, a senior defense source said on Thursday.

Additional likely ceasefire terms listed off by the source included: a US side letter of guarantees to Israel and American supervision of UNIFIL and empowering ot the Lebanese army enough to truly take and keep control of southern Lebanon from Hezbollah.

All of these terms would be in addition to Hezbollah's already accepting a withdrawal of its own forces to points North of the Litani River and the US, France, and others committing to help guarantee that Hezbollah will be unable to resupply itself with rockets and other weapons from land, air, or sea.

More specifically, the defense official said that the US letter, while it will not likely be made public, will delineate between different scenarios: where Israel is entitled to act against Hezbollah violations without checking in with any third party and in what situations would it need to first complain to an international body before acting.

For example, the official said that the IDF and security forces could act immediately against any immediate threat, but would need to first lodge a complaint if it noticed Hezbollah starting the process in southern Lebanon of manufacturing new rockets, digging a new tunnel, or organizing some other new military site - and in some cases even North of the Litani River, though this element is more ambiguous.

Illustrative image of U.S. special envoy Amos Hochstein. (credit: ING IMAGE, REUTERS, REUTERS/THAIER AL-SUDANI)

Israel is expected to receive in the deal with Hezbollah-Lebanon or in the side deal with the US, the right to continue to collect intelligence on threats within Lebanon from the air, stated the source.

In addition, though the Lebanese military, with additional help from the US and others, is expected to take over southern Lebanon from the IDF and Hezbollah, UNIFIL will remain in the picture in some kind of limited coordination capacity.

The role of UNIFIL

While generally Israel views UNIFIL as somewhat useless in stopping Hezbollah, its presence can still add to stability factors in the area, along with more robust guarantees from the IDF's own actions and the Lebanese army, said the defense official.

While the exact parameters of the staged 60-day IDF withdrawal may still be up for debate, noted the defense official, the idea would be that the splitting into stages would allow Israel to evaluate using benchmarks at multiple points whether Hezbollah was complying with the agreement.

Still, the source said the most important item was that Israel will act to enforce the agreement regardless of what the deal itself says.

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In contrast to 2006, where Israel felt that it was lucky in some ways to get any improved deal on paper, which also meant it was somewhat fearful about enforcing the deal, the defense source said that now the IDF feels that it is in the driver's seat, and that added leverage, will likely both discourage Hezbollah from near-term violations of the deal, as well as leave the IDF more ready to enforce it.

Broadly speaking, this means that Israel views a ceasefire as having three components: 1) its' right to attack Hezbollah when it violates the deal without checking with anyone; 2) side guarantees from the US; and 3) the deal itself.

The defense official acknowledged that unarmed Hezbollah fighters could return to villages in southern Lebanon like Kfar Kilah, and that there could be complex circumstances where it might be harder to evaluate whether they were acting militarily or not.

But generally the source appeared confident that Israeli defense and intelligence activities would be able to manage such challenges.