Could the unrest in Syria spillover into Iraq? Iran seems to think so

Iran believes that Iraq is in danger - this means that Iran is worried militias it backs in Iraq could lose influence.

By SETH J. FRANTZMAN DECEMBER 7, 2024 13:23 Updated: DECEMBER 7, 2024 14:10

Members of an Iraqi Shi'ite armed group sit in a vehicle after an attack by a drone strike on an Iran-backed militia headquarters in Baghdad, Iraq January 4, 2024. (photo credit: REUTERS/AHMED SAAD)

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al Sudani recently said that the escalating conflict in Syria has ties to the rest of the region. He argued that it is connected to the war in Gaza and Lebanon.

Baghdad appeared concerned that the conflict could spill over to Iraq. Iraq has grounds to believe this as in 2014 when ISIS was on the rise in Syria, it rapidly spilled over into Iraq and took over a swath of Iraq - leading to a genocide of Yazidis, a minority group, in Iraq.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told the Iraqi Al-Sharqiya channel that the recent developments in Syria “will not be limited to this country, and said that terrorism and developments in Syria also threaten the security of Iraq.”

This is clear messaging from Iraq regarding what is happening in Syria. Reports indicate that the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces have made moves to secure areas in Albukamal on the border with Iraq, and in Deir Ezzor, a city on the Euphrates.

People ride on vehicle with belongings in Hama, after rebels led by HTS have sought to capitalize on their swift takeover of Aleppo in the north and Hama in west-central Syria by pressing onwards to Homs, in Hama, Syria December 6, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/Mahmoud Hasano)

Iraq has deployed border forces to Al-Qaim and the border area with Syria. The Iraq-Syrian border is 370 miles long and most of it consists of desert that is hard to secure and police. The main crossing for extremists who have flooded into Iraq in the past has been from the Euphrates River Valley.

Many of the tribes in that valley in Syria generally felt kinship with Iraq and have ties to tribes in Iraq.

Iraq worries about the future

The meetings in Iraq between Iranian and Iraqi officials clearly show how Iraq is thinking about the future. Sudani met with Aragchi on Friday.

“The events in Syria are inseparable from those witnessed in Gaza and Lebanon, which have threatened the security and stability of the region,” he said.

Iranian-backed militias in Iraq have involved themselves in the war against Israel and have launched drones at Israel.

Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq also killed three Americans in Jordan in January 2024. Thus it is Iraq that involved itself in the war in Gaza already.

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Iraq is also a conduit for Iranian weapons smuggling to Syria and Lebanon. Kataib Hezbollah, for instance, has operated in Iraq and Syria in the past. It is linked to the Iranian IRGC and also Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Iraq says it wants to see a unified, stable Syria. Today the Syrian regime is embattled and losing ground to rebel groups. This has emboldened rebels in southern Syria as well and the SDF in eastern Syria.

Iran believes that Iraq is in danger - this means that Iran is worried militias it backs in Iraq could lose influence. Iran knows that populist leaders such as Muqtada al-Sadr have said Iraq should not be sending forces to Syria.

"After Gaza, they came to Lebanon and then to Syria, and in my opinion this will not stop in Syria and the whole region is facing threats," the Iranian foreign minister added. He says the US and America are behind the attacks in Syria. 

According to Iranian state media, “Araghchi pointed out that before Syria, threats were limited to the Zionist regime, but now the threat of Takfiri terrorist groups has also increased, and it is noteworthy that these armed groups in Syria have been recognized and introduced as terrorist groups by the United Nations.

Iran's foreign minister added that but now the countries that claim to fight terrorism are either silent or supporting the terrorists.”

Close attention needs to paid to how this plays out and Iraq is watching Syria closely.

If the Syrian regime loses more ground then groups in Syria such as the SDF and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham or other rebel groups may come to control the Iraq-Syria border. There are also US forces in Tanf in Syria near the Jordanian and Iraqi borders. They have small Syrian rebel groups and this could also have an affect on the border area. There are also refugees in the Rukban camp in Syria near the Iraqi and Jordanian border. There is also the Druze area in Suwayda, which affects this desert area near the Iraqi border.

This indicates that many processes are in play that could affect the 370 miles of Iraqi border with Syria.

Iraq has a reason to look at developments in Syria as linked to the rest of the region. The weakness of Hezbollah has weakened the Syrian regime.

Iraq’s decision to involve itself in the war in Gaza, via its militias, shows how it is linked to the conflict. Furthermore, the US forces in Tanf and eastern Syria play a key role in securing areas that are close to the Iraqi border. However, Iraq has wanted US forces to leave Iraq, which can lead to less stability.