Despite a 'dramatic downturn' the war on terror in the West Bank never ends

Statistics show that the change of tactics – taking the offensive and being more proactive – has made a difference.

By HERB KEINON JANUARY 6, 2025 21:10

Palestinian gunmen hold weapons during the funeral of Palestinian terrorist, Ahmed Abu al-Foul, who was killed by Palestinian Authority forces in Tulkarm camp, in the West Bank, May 2, 2024. (photo credit: REUTERS/RANEEN SAWAFTA)

“Curbing terror” was the headline of a Yediot Aharonot report two weeks ago on end-of-the-year IDF figures showing a dramatic downturn in West Bank terrorism.  

One of the subheadlines read: “254 terror attacks took place in Judea and Samaria in 2024, less than one-third the number in 2023.”

Yet there was a caveat, and this appeared in the very first paragraph of the story. “Although the numbers speak for themselves and demonstrate a decrease in terror in Judea and Samaria, we need to add an asterisk: everything in this region is temporary,” the story read. “This is a front where everything can escalate in a second as a result of an attack, a military operation, or some kind of diplomatic development.”

The terrorist murder Monday of Rachel Cohen, Aliza Reiss and Elad Yaakov Winkelstein near Kedumim – two sisters-in-law in their 70s and a 35-year-old off-duty policeman taking his son to school – is just the type of attack this asterisk warned about. It is the type of well-planned, organized attack – at least three terrorists were believed to be involved – that will raise concerns in the security establishment of an organized network re-emerging that will raise public fears that the West Bank is on the brink of explosion.

Weapons uncovered in the West Bank as part of a smuggling operation from Iran into the West Bank, November 27, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT)

Iran flooding the West Bank

Since October 7, Hamas and Iran have been trying to spark just such an explosion by flooding the West Bank with cash and smuggling in sophisticated weaponry across the Jordanian border.

One of the failures of Hamas and Iran since then has been their inability to ignite the West Bank. This has also been one of the IDF and Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet)’s significant achievements during the war: keeping the West Bank from exploding.

But, Monday’s attack is a reminder of the constant need for vigilance and proactive measures to prevent the terrorists from rebuilding an infrastructure able to gather the intelligence and plan these types of attacks. This was not a “lone wolf” attack, but had the markings of one that was carefully planned and executed.

That the various Palestinian terrorist organizations have been unable to carry out more attacks like the one on Monday is not for lack of trying. Rather, it is because of the actions taken day in and day out by the security forces to thwart these attempts.

According to military figures released at the end of the year, the number of significant terror attacks in Judea and Samaria declined from some 847 in 2023 to 254 in 2024, a drop of some 70%. At the same time, the number of IDF soldiers and civilians killed in these attacks did not decrease proportionally, with 41 killed in 2023 and 37 in 2024. Significant attacks include shootings, stabbings, bombings, and car rammings.

Less lethal attacks – such as rock throwing and petrol bomb attacks – declined significantly as well, from 3,256 to 1,188.

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End-of-year figures released by the Shin Bet showed that the agency thwarted 1,040 significant attacks in 2024, including 689 shooting attacks.

What these numbers indicate is that, were it not for continuous operations by the security services, attacks like the one witnessed on Monday would happen daily, as they did almost unimpeded during the first half of the Second Intifada, from 2000 to 2002.

The turning point in the Second Intifada came after the Passover Eve massacre in Netanya in March 2002, when the IDF launched Operation Defensive Shield and reentered Palestinian cities – despite Oslo Accord restrictions – to dismantle the terrorist infrastructure that had developed there and grown unchecked.

From that time on, it took two decades of vigilance – of IDF soldiers returning to the cities and towns week after week, sometimes night after night – to prevent that infrastructure from being reestablished.

Toward the end of the last decade, however, terror activity noticeably resurged in refugee camps in places like Jenin, Tulkarm, and Nablus. Israel did not take strong enough measures to stamp it out, partly due to a security doctrine that sought calm above all – similar to the mindset that prevailed before October 7 and kept Israel from taking more strenuous measures against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

As West Bank terrorism intensified, policy shifted. In July of 2023, Operation Bayit VeGan marked the first significant IDF mission inside the Jenin refugee camp in years, signaling a more aggressive posture.

That was a few months before October 7. After that date, alongside fighting in Gaza and Lebanon and dealing with other fronts – Syria, the Houthis in Yemen, and Iran – the IDF stepped up its actions inside the West bank to more thoroughly confront developing terrorist networks there.

The IDF deployed various tactics to this end, including increased drone strikes and no longer waiting on the roads for something to happen, but rather acting on a daily basis inside various Palestinian towns and villages to keep terrorists preoccupied with having to deal with the IDF daily so that they were unable to have the time or the freedom of movement to plan larger attacks.

Since October 7, according to IDF numbers, some 6,000 wanted Palestinians have been arrested in the West Bank, including 2,350 who are affiliated with Hamas. More than 800 Palestinians have been killed, the vast majority identified as terrorists.

Statistics show that this change of tactics – taking the offensive, being more proactive – has made a difference. Monday’s attack, however, underscores tragically that it will not prevent every attack.