Despite hurdles, inertia could keep Gaza ceasefire, hostage deal going

The UAE, Saudi Arabia, and other Gulf countries are increasingly important in some of this focus on what happens next.

By SETH J. FRANTZMAN FEBRUARY 27, 2025 21:08 Updated: FEBRUARY 27, 2025 21:35

Hamas terrorists stand guard in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip, February 22, 2025 (photo credit: REUTERS/Hatem Khaled)

The first phase of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire appears to be headed for an extension. This is because it is in Hamas's interest to keep the ceasefire going. Now that Hamas has emerged above ground and Gazans are seeking to return to a more peaceful life amid the destruction of the war, many people will want the ceasefire to continue. Hamas has shown flexibility. It always wanted a ceasefire, and it wanted to use the hostage deal to draw it out.

Hamas also faces some diminishing returns in trying to be tough in the deal. It is willing to be flexible because now that there is a deal, it prefers to play for time. It knows voices in Israel want a return to the fighting, and it knows that Israeli politicians continue to promise “victory” and the defeat of Hamas. Hamas assumes that Israel is happy to talk about victory but that achieving it is so difficult that there is inertia against returning to fighting.

Will the ceasefire be extended?

Regional media appear to think the same way. Al-Ain media in the UAE has said that despite Israel’s demands to remain in the Rafah corridor and other issues, the ceasefire is likely to be extended. The report explores several scenarios, such as Hamas withdrawing from the deal or the US finding a way to broker a deal that gets Israel to leave the Rafah area. However, the report seems optimistic that the first phase of the deal will be extended. This is what happened in Lebanon as well, as the 60-day ceasefire was extended.

A Palestinian jumps off a damaged Israeli military vehicle left behind by Israeli forces, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. The vehicle bears graffiti, including the image of a swastika. January 22, 2025. (credit: REUTERS/Hatem Khaled)

The same Al-Ain media is also focused on Israel’s operations in the West Bank, where the IDF is changing the equation. The IDF is remaining in some Palestinian areas, and tanks have been used for the first time in two decades. This is important because the reports believe Israel is now looking to a “day after” scenario in the northern West Bank. The fact that this has gone smoothly for Israel illustrates that countries in the region may now accept these increased Israeli operations. 

The UAE, Saudi Arabia, and other Gulf countries are increasingly important in some of this focus on what happens next. Although so far, they do not seek a larger role in Gaza or the West Bank, their position and how they view these issues are important. For instance, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun recently expressed hope that “the upcoming extraordinary Arab Summit, scheduled to be held next week in Cairo, would yield a unified Arab position to address the region’s current challenges, especially since it targets the joint interests of the brotherly Arab countries.”He was meeting Wednesday with Omani Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Al-Busaidi, who was accompanied by a diplomatic delegation to Beirut. Aoun said that “amid the developments in southern Lebanon, Syria and Palestine, the challenges are significant and ongoing and require a unified Arab stance to face them.” 

Meanwhile Egypt has rejected playing a larger role in Gaza. This was in response to Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid’s suggestion that Egypt could run Gaza. “Any notions or proposals that circumvent the constants of the Egyptian and Arab stance (on Gaza)... are rejected and unacceptable,” the official MENA news agency in Egypt quoted foreign ministry spokesman Tamim Khallaf as saying, Arab News noted.