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While Israel is pleased to see the weakness of the Iranian-backed axis, it’s worth pausing and noting that celebrations should be tempered by reality.
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN DECEMBER 8, 2024 17:29
Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani attends a meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer (not pictured) at Downing Street, in London, Britain, December 4, 2024.
(photo credit: REUTERS/HANNAH MCKAY/POOL)
The Iranian-backed axis in the region is suffering repeated blows. Hezbollah lost thousands of fighters during a two-month Israeli campaign that ended on November 27.
The Assad regime fell on December 8. This has potentially broken Iran’s ability to smuggle weapons to Hezbollah and leaves Iran cornered. However, even as Iran suffered losses, it appears that Qatar is moving to benefit. It’s important to understand this intersection in the region because Qatar hosted Hamas on October 7 when the group massacred and kidnapped Israelis.
While Israel is pleased to see the weakness of the Iranian-backed axis, it’s worth pausing and noting that celebrations should be tempered by reality. Hamas continued to control central Gaza, and it holds 100 hostages. Hamas continues to be backed by Doha and also by Turkey. At the recent Doha Forum, Qatar projected its influence and power.
It hosted numerous representatives of countries in the region. These included foreign ministers of Iraq and Turkey as well as those of Egypt and Jordan. In addition, the top diplomats of Iran, Turkey, and Russia were present. “Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Prince Faisal bin Farhan took part on Saturday in a high-level meeting on Syria involving regional and international stakeholders in Qatar,” Arab News reported.
Even as the Syrian regime was falling apart, key countries in the region were meeting in Qatar to discuss the future. It’s worth noting that Iran, Russia, and other countries that backed Assad are now pivoting. They will be willing to work with Qatar and other countries.
This means that while Iran may appear cornered, there are many wheels in motion in the region. Doha will benefit from Iran’s weakness because it gives it even more influence over groups such as Hamas and also potentially over the new rulers emerging in Damascus.
Doha and Turkey exploit Iran's weakness
It's important to understand how this works. Iran has backed various groups in the region over the years. Its usual role is to hollow out countries, weaken them, and then fill those countries with militias. In Iraq and Lebanon, the militias are Shi’ite, like Iran’s regime. In Yemen, they are also a local sect. The Assad family are Alawites, a minority group. Thus, Iran fed off working with non-Sunni groups in the region. The exception to that rule was Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Iran thus gained significant influence over Palestinians via backing Hamas. This enabled Iran to escape what was partly a sectarian ghetto.
For Doha, things are different. Doha has backed the Muslim Brotherhood in the region, which is rooted in Sunni Islamic politics. What that means is that Doha has often found influence in civil conflicts on a different path than Iran. This was the case in Libya and Syria and with Hamas.
Doha lost out at times, such as when the Brotherhood was overthrown in Egypt in 2013. Doha even suffered some isolation when Saudi Arabia led several Arab countries to break ties in 2017. However, Qatar and Turkey have formed an iron bond. Turkey and Qatar have both done outreach to Iran. Turkey, Iran, and Russia were all part of the Astana process on Syria. Turkey, Iran, Russia, and Qatar all back Hamas.
It's important to understand how Doha will now benefit from Iran's weakness. While Israel will gain from Iran’s weakness, this should not be seen as a complete victory because Hamas continues to control Gaza and is angling for influence in the West Bank, and it holds hostages.
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The Iranian threat was one part of the deadly chessboard of the region. However, a new threat will emerge. Israel has always faced new threats. In the 1950s and 1960s, it was led by Arab nationalist regimes. Later it was the Brotherhood and Hamas, which is rooted in the Brotherhood.
Turkey, whose leading party has origins in the Brotherhood, is one of the most vicious critics of Israel. Make no mistake, the end of the Assad regime will not likely solve all of Israel’s challenges. Doha is angling to make itself more important, and its historic hosting of Hamas presents a challenge.
Hamas massacred more Jews in one day than at any time since the Shoah. While Iran and its axis are a threat, they were not able to massacre 1,000 people and kidnap 250. Israel prevented Iran and its allies from such massacres. Preventing Hamas and its backers in Ankara and Doha from exploiting the situation in Syria and elsewhere is now key.
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