Don’t Let Assad’s Exit Introduce New Dangers from Erdogan’s Turkey

Photo Credit: www.tccb.gov.tr

Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati meets Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul, November 25, 2023.

The Middle East is at a pivotal moment in history, and Israel is uniquely positioned to shape its future for the better. The dramatic shifts in regional dynamics, coupled with Israel’s victories against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, create opportunities to ensure a safer, more secure, and more stable region. Among these opportunities, the fall of Assad’s Syria stands out as a defining moment (a side effect of Israel destroying Hezbollah)— one that Israel must seize to fortify its borders and influence the path of a new Middle East.

The Syrian Opportunity: Security and Sovereignty

One of the most significant developments is the IDF’s peaceful and strategic advancement into the Syrian side of the Hermon mountain and the Golan Heights. Without firing a single bullet, we’ve reinforced our presence in a critical area that has long been a security concern. But we cannot stop there. Actively maintaining control over the Syrian Golan Heights will help prevent chaos from spilling over into Israel and deter hostile forces from establishing themselves on our border.

The Syrian Rebels are a mixed bag—some are Islamic Jihadi extremists, while others are simply ordinary citizens of various ethnic groups seeking freedom from tyranny. Their uncertain future presents both a challenge and an opportunity. We hope for a federation of ethnic regions within Syria, which could pave the way for a more decentralized and stable government. Most importantly, New Syria must keep both Iran and Turkey’s influence at bay while limiting Russian involvement.

Erdogan’s Turkey: A Growing Threat

While Iran has been weakened, Turkey under Erdogan presents a more insidious and immediate challenge. Erdogan is no friend to Israel, and his growing influence in Syria is deeply concerning. There is reason to suspect that Syrian rebel leaders have been planning Assad’s overthrow with Turkey, positioning Erdogan as the patron and benefactor of the new order.

Turkey is actively influencing the Rebels, especially against the Syrian Kurds, and this is unacceptable. The Kurdish people, who have been one of the most effective forces against ISIS, find themselves under relentless pressure from Turkey. Erdogan’s agenda is clear: to crush Kurdish autonomy, expand Turkey’s regional—and yes, global—influence, and position himself as a key player in the Middle East and even Europe.

It is important to note that Erdogan has been a military supporter of Ukraine in its war against Russia, supplying drones, while maintaining economic ties with Russia – playing all sides. He will certainly attempt to leverage this support to bolster his influence and relevance with the West, particularly with a Trump administration, as a major player in both Europe and the Middle East.

Turkey’s presence in Syria threatens to destabilize the region further. Erdogan’s ambitions extend beyond Syria—his active interference in eastern Jerusalem – in an attempt to diminish our sovereignty over the city, economic maneuvers against Israel, and alignment with anti-Israel diplomatic efforts show that his goals are fundamentally opposed to ours. His moves aren’t merely tactical; they are strategic. Allowing Turkey to fill the power vacuum in Syria would be a grave mistake, one that Israel must actively work to prevent.

The Decline of Iran: A Window of Opportunity

Iran’s proxies have been largely decimated. From Hamas in Gaza to Hezbollah in Lebanon, Israel has dealt decisive blows to the forces that once surrounded us with their ring of fire. Iran has retreated from Syria (for now), with the rebels effectively cutting off Tehran’s critical land corridor to the Mediterranean. This isolation comes as Iran potentially faces renewed sanctions, courtesy of newly re-elected President Donald Trump. The regime in Tehran is weaker than ever, and the Iranian people’s growing discontent raises the possibility of an uprising. While we cannot count on regime change, we must capitalize on Iran’s current vulnerability, even as we face increased risk that Iran will take even more dangerous steps in the nuclear and ballistic arena.

Lebanon, Gaza, and Sovereignty: Securing Our Borders

Israel’s victories must translate into long-term strategic gains. In Lebanon, we must maintain a security zone up to the Litani River, while encouraging the Lebanese people to take action against Hezbollah throughout their country. In Gaza, rebuilding Jewish communities and promoting voluntary emigration via Egypt should be central to our efforts to stabilize the region.

Above all, Israel must apply sovereignty over Judea, Samaria, and Gaza. The idea that territorial depth and sovereignty is outdated, as once espoused by Shimon Peres, has been thoroughly discredited. October 7th reminded us of the stark reality: territorial depth is not just relevant—it is essential to our survival.

Reshaping the Region: Israel’s Leadership Role

Israel’s strength, resilience, and moral clarity must now be directed toward reshaping the region. This includes not only securing our borders but also influencing our neighbors to adopt governance models that prioritize stability, moderation and coexistence. A weakened Iran and a fragmented, or rebuilt New Syria offer a rare chance to achieve this. With the right actions, we can ensure that the Middle East moves toward a future where Israel is safer, our neighbors are less hostile, and the forces of chaos and extremism are kept at bay.

Erdogan’s Turkey, however, stands in stark opposition to these goals. Countering his influence—whether through diplomatic channels, partnerships with allies, or strategic action—must be a priority for Israel. The Kurdish issue is not just a Syrian or Turkish problem; it’s a moral and strategic test for the region. We cannot allow Turkey’s unchecked ambitions to destabilize our borders or compromise the future of a Middle East aligned against Islamic extremism.