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In some ways, Westminster is Nirvana in comparison to recent years.
We’ve only had two prime ministers in a single year, and the change took place because of a democratic vote rather than chaotic party infighting and backstabbing by MPs.
Best of all, no decaying vegetables were used to measure the length of a leader’s tenure in Downing Street for the second year in a row.
More seriously, the significance and scale of Sir Keir Starmer’s victory in July’s general election should not be underestimated.
Although he was perhaps assisted by Boris Johnson’s thumping of Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour in 2019, Starmer’s work to extract the antisemitic poison that coursed through the party under the veteran left-winger was no mean feat.
Returning to government for the first time in 14 years, Starmer’s party won 411 seats – including marginal constituencies with a substantial number of Jewish voters, such as Bury South, Hendon, and Finchley and Golders Green (whose new MP Sarah Sackman was instantly appointed to ministerial office, first as solicitor general and then as justice minister).
The Rishi Sunak-led Conservative Party suffered one of their worst electoral defeats and were reduced to a rump of just 121 MPs. But despite the Blair-style super-majority enjoyed by Starmer in the Commons, his style of government has been nothing like Labour’s longest-serving PM.
Everywhere there is caution and indecision. Sky News revealed in December that in 149 days in office, Starmer’s government had launched more than 60 “reviews” or consultations. While he talked a great deal about “change” in opposition, the only substantial change we have seen during his time in office is in his approval rating. And it is not a pretty sight for Labour supporters.
The parliamentary press gallery was baffled when, earlier this month, the prime minister decided to set out a “plan for change” and six milestones he wanted the British public to judge him against at the next election (not to be confused with the five missions he set out in opposition).
Although we were assured that this was definitely not an attempt at a re-launch – given the first few months in office saw reports of in-fighting within his top team and the eventual departure of his chief of staff Sue Gray – it very much felt like it was.
Why would a prime minister in such an apparently commanding position project such insecurity? Because they are a government in chaos?
Too often, it has felt like Labour are on the back foot. They are regularly defined by attacks from their rivals, whether on removing VAT exemptions for private schools (to the frustration of many in the Jewish community), means testing the winter fuel allowance or picking fights with Britain’s farmers.
This government at times resembles the dying days of Sunak’s doomed premiership, unsure of itself and (unsuccessfully) trying to appease everyone.
The same baffling approach applied to the party’s controversial call to stop some arms sales to Israel.
In September, Foreign Secretary David Lammy rose in the Commons to announce the suspension of 30 out of a total of 350 arms export licences to Israel, citing concerns over potential violations of international law.
This, in the words of one Labour source, managed to “piss everybody off”.
The pro-Palestine campaigners were enraged because the scope was too limited and the UK did not withhold the export of parts of the F35 fighter jet (something an ex-Labour defence minister told the JC would be a disaster for the UK).
Zionist campaigners were furious because, for all of Starmer’s words about backing Israel’s right to defend itself, he was willing to capitulate under pressure.
It’s worth acknowledging the degree of pressure Starmer has been under on this issue, however. There are the weekly pro-Palestine demonstrations, visible in cities up and down the country since the start of Israel’s war against Hamas, some of whose participants bombard MPs with correspondence on the issue. Also, during the general election campaign, Gaza dominated discourse in the way no foreign issue has since the Iraq war.
Several candidates reported feeling intimidated. Jonathan Ashworth, a key ally of the Labour leader, was quite literally forced to seek refuge in a vicarage after being chased by pro-Palestine campaigners.
In many ways, the pressure worked.
Five independents were elected as MPs on explicitly pro-Gaza platforms – and Ashworth lost his Leicester South seat.
Despite being blocked from standing for his former party and multiple opinion polls suggesting he would lose, Corbyn defeated Labour to retain Islington North.
The Green Party, which also enjoyed victories in four seats, used Labour’s more balanced stance on Gaza to attack it. Their co-leader Carla Denyer was criticised during the campaign for stirring up division by using a leaflet featuring a Palestinian flag and images of destruction in Gaza.
She defeated Labour’s Thangam Debbonaire in Bristol Central and would go on to use her maiden speech in parliament to call for an arms embargo on Israel.
Given this, it is perhaps it should not have been completely surprising when the JC revealed in November that parliament spends more time discussing Israel than it does the NHS.
Since their unexpected defeats (and near defeats) in constituencies with a substantial number of Muslim voters, some Labour MPs have felt the need to be seen to be critical of Israel.
Some commentators have lamented July’s election result as the first to feature sectarian voting on the British mainland. It remains to be seen whether this was a one-off or whether the Palestinian cause is likely to feature in future general elections.
Whether as a direct result of the pressure or not, as well as imposing an partial arms ban, Labour has restored funding to Unrwa and – unlike Sunak’s government who objected to an ICC arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu – its ministers said that they would comply with the ICC’s jurisdiction. In doing so have come up with the slightly odd line that they consider Israel a friend while agreeing that the leader of the country – which has been waging a war on multiple fronts – should be put the dock.
It was no coincidence that throughout their protracted leadership campaign, Conservative candidates were keen to emphasise their pro-Israel credentials, presumably to win back Labour voters with buyer’s remorse. Winner Kemi Badenoch and her shadow foreign secretary Priti Patel have been vocally critical of Labour’s stance on Israel.
But the Conservatives are not the only voice on the right giving Starmer’s team sleepless nights. Reform UK’s Nigel Farage was elected to Parliament for the first time ever in July, along with four other MPs from the party.
The new MP for Clacton clearly also senses Labour’s dilemma when it comes to voters’ anger about their stance on the Middle East. Likely with that in mind, he accused Labour of pandering “to Hamas” and blasted the government for not doing enough to secure the release of British hostage Emily Damari.
Reform UK are surging in recent polls, and their presence in Westminster is not just a threat to the Conservatives on the right – they are targeting those who voted Labour in July but are frustrated by the lack of “change” promised.
It is worth remembering that Labour only won 33.7 per cent of the vote at the general election, just 1.5 per cent more than Corbyn in 2019.
Although 2024 has been a transformative year in British politics, next year – and the reaction of our leaders to Donald Trump’s return to the White House – means that, to paraphrase another US president, we ain’t seen nothing yet.
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