'Gazafication': The terror threat in northern West Bank is growing

Weapons are flowing to the West Bank and enabling the growing terrorist threat, the building blocks of a kind of “Gazafication” are now in place.

By SETH J. FRANTZMAN DECEMBER 25, 2024 10:31

Gunmen stand during the funeral of Palestinian Ribhi Shalabi, who was killed in clashes with Palestinian Authority forces, in Jenin camp in the West Bank, December 10, 2024. (photo credit: REUTERS/RANEEN SAWAFTA)

Israel and the Palestinian Authority are facing growing terror threats in the northern West Bank. This has been the case for the last two years; however, several recent incidents have pointed to a disturbing trend.

The PA has attempted to carry out an operation in Jenin to clear the Jenin camp of terrorists. Israeli troops have clashed with Palestinians in Nur Shams Camp in Tulkarm. Taken as a whole, the operations in the northern West Bank illustrate how the terror threat is growing and shifting.

First of all, the threat requires Israel to use more drone strikes in the West Bank. This has also become a new phenomenon in the last two years.

Overall, it means that the threat on the ground is growing so much that it is preferable to use drones and airstrikes rather than send troops into areas. It also speaks to a decision to rely on air assets and surveillance functions they bring in order to neutralize threats.

While this can work, history has shown that precision air strikes and drones don’t usually win conflicts. What drones can do is reduce some friction or keep enemies in check. They are not a substitute for boots on the ground.

A man walks with a weapon, amid clashes between Palestinian security forces and terrorists, in Jenin camp in the West Bank, December 15, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/RANEEN SAWAFTA)

A report at Maariv overnight noted that, according to the IDF, “an Air Force aircraft recently attacked a terrorist cell in Tamun, in the Jordan Valley, who had planted explosives against the forces operating in the area."

Tamun is a Palestinian village 10 miles northeast of Nablus in the Tubas governorate of the West Bank. It is near the top of the Wadi al-Faria, a large valley that flows down to the Jordan River. Terrorists have tried to infiltrate this area over the last year, resulting in clashes in the summer with the IDF in this area and in Tubas.

In addition, there have been clashes in Fara camp, which is not far from here. This area should be seen as a belt of villages that are now being used by terrorists, from Balata in Nablus north via Fara to Tubas, Tamun, and other villages on the line of hills overlooking the Jordan Valley.

Concerning developments

More concerning is a report from the IDF overnight that “during an IDF counterterrorism operation in the area of Tukaram, a David APC was hit by an explosive device. The Commanding Officer of the Judea and Samaria Division, Brig. Gen. Yaki Dolf and the Commander of the Menashe Regional Brigade, Col. Ayub Kayouf, were in the vehicle.” The report goes on to note that “the Commander of the Menashe Regional Brigade was moderately injured and was evacuated to receive medical treatment. His family has been notified.”

The battles in Tulkarm included airstrikes on terrorist cells and the discovery of explosives. Ynet reported that six terrorists were eliminated. Al-Quds Palestinian media claims eight people were killed in Tulkarm. However, the fact that a vehicle was hit with an improvised explosive device is concerning.

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It is a reminder that three IDF soldiers were killed in Beit Hanoun in Gaza by an IED this week as well. It appears the terrorists are shifting tactics. This has also been a slow process going back two years in the northern West Bank. The enemy appears to be maturing in their capabilities.

The overall picture emerging in the West Bank is concerning. Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad are seeking to inflame local populist sentiment against the Palestinian Authority. They may hope that the recent victory by the opposition in Syria could pave the way to a new kind of Arab Spring.

In essence, they want populist rage to grow against the PA. It appears that Doha-linked media, such as Al-Jazeera, may also be fanning the flames. In addition, UNRWA in Jenin has not helped the matter by waiting days to mention that terrorists took over a medical facility and refusing to condemn or name the “armed groups” that are responsible for the growing chaos. The building blocks of a kind of “Gazafication” are now in place in Jenin and other areas in the northern West Bank.

Hamas is likely biding its time in Gaza, refusing to do a hostage deal, hoping that it can utilize the West Bank clashes for its benefit. These are concerning signs. The IDF raid in Tulkarm, the use of IEDs by terrorists, and the attempt by Hamas and PIJ to exploit the PA raid in Jenin are all part of a growing trend that should be seen as more than the sum of its parts.

In addition, the frequent images of young men, including teens, with M-4 and M-16 type rifles is also a major concern. Many of the rifles have modern sights and accessories, indicating they have been recently smuggled. The weapons are flowing to the West Bank and enabling the growing terrorist threat.