Hamas making substantial comeback in the Gaza Strip

New estimates gauge that Hamas's forces are up to between 12,000-23,000.

By YONAH JEREMY BOB JANUARY 1, 2025 21:37

HAMAS MEMBERS in Gaza. (photo credit: REUTERS)

Both The Jerusalem Post and Channel 12 have received information indicating that Hamas is making a substantial comeback by recruiting new forces.

Along with Islamic Jihad together, Channel 12 said on Wednesday night that Hamas was up to between 20,000-23,000 fighters.

Information received by The Post in the recent period indicated numbers closer to around 12,000.

The wild fluctuation in numbers becomes even more stark when compared to previous numbers put out by the IDF or Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The latest numbers publicized were that the IDF has killed between 17,000-20,000 Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists over the course of the war.

There has been a gulf of a few thousand between the IDF and Netanyahu throughout the war, drawing some of the estimates into question.

IDF operational activities in Gaza, 26 July (credit: IDF)

In June, the IDF said that already between 14,000-16,000 Hamas fighters had been wounded.

Further, The Post has learned that over 6,000 Gazans have been detained by the IDF during the war, with at least 4,300 remaining in custody and at most 2,200 being returned to Gaza as less dangerous.

Numbers don't add up

Given that at the start of the war, the IDF said Hamas's full forces were 25,000, the numbers do not come close to adding up unless one takes into account that Hamas has recruited almost an entirely new force, fully replacing its old force.

Another alternative is that despite IDF estimates at the start of the war of a Hamas force of 25,000, earlier estimates before the war started estimated numbers of 30,000 or even up to 40,000

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The Post was told Wednesday night that the 40,000 number was more accurate.

This could suggest that a majority of the Hamas fighters are still from their original force, while they have undoubtedly added thousands of new recruits.

June heralded the first reports of a large Hamas comeback on the heels of the IDF having withdrawn from northern Gaza in January-February and having withdrawn from Khan Yunis on April 7.

If the Channel 12 reporting is correct, that report said that around 9,000 Hamas forces are split between northern and southern Gaza, that Islamic Jihad has another 4,000 fighters, and that there are another 7,000-10,000 disorganized, more local clan-style fighters spread out throughout the Strip.

These numbers would seem to contradict recent iDF briefings to the Post and others indicating that much of northern Gaza has been cleared of fighters.

Alternatively, the Hamas numbers are closer to 12,000, with more fighters in southern Gaza than in northern Gaza.

However, sources on Wednesday night backed up Channel 12's numbers.

Still, even Channel 12's numbers had a significant gap and spectrum, such that IDF estimates may simply be more limited in a time period when most of Gaza's 2.3 million people are shoved together in a few small humanitarian areas, with little ability to distinguish between terrorists and civilians.

Another source told The Post that the total numbers were unclear but that the quality of new Hamas fighters who the terror group is giving weapons to was far inferior to earlier in the war, given that many of them are untrained minors.