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Syrian rebels have reached Damascus, meaning the spillover risks into the Golan have grown.
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN DECEMBER 7, 2024 18:33
Israeli soldiers seen near the Israeli border with Syria, northern Israel, December 7, 2024
(photo credit: AYAL MARGOLIN/FLASH90)
The IDF called up additional forces for defensive missions in the Golan Heights, the IDF said on the morning of December 7. This comes as the situation develops rapidly in southern Syria. Southern Syrian rebels have overrun Syrian regime areas across a swath of territory, including near the Golan border. This means that there could be potential spillover from what is happening in Syria.
It's important to understand the history and context here. When the Syrian Civil War began in 2011, it began in Dara’a in southern Syria. Eventually, the Syrian rebels controlled part of the border with Israel. These rebel groups fought the regime near the border. The regime controlled an area across from Majdal Shams, including the Druze village of Khadr.
This led to controversy in 2015 because some of the groups in southern Syria threatened the Druze in Syria. At the time, some of the wounded Syrians were being given humanitarian assistance inside Israel. When two Syrians were transported by ambulance through Majdal Shams in 2015, a number of young men attacked the ambulance because they believed the men being transported had been fighting in Syria against the Druze.
This illustrated how the Syrian civil war can affect Israel. In other incidents, an ISIS affiliate named Jaish Khaled ibn Walid. This group was only loosely linked to ISIS, though; it was, in general, a local extremist group. It clashed with Israel briefly but, in general, didn’t threaten Israel. It was defeated in 2018.
The Syrian rebel groups who controlled areas around Dara’a had links with Jordan and had backing from the West. This means they generally have better ties to the West than Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Idlib. HTS has led the battle that collapsed the regime in Aleppo and Hama.
Rebels reach Damascus
In the south, the former Syrian rebels returned to the banner of revolt and reached Damascus. It is important to understand that these groups have always said they are more moderate than groups like HTS, and they generally oppose HTS. They are also likely closer to the West. Some of them have positive memories of the days when they received humanitarian support from Israel and the Golan. In general, therefore, these groups may reach Damascus, and their moderation may be an asset. It is also believed that US-backed Syrian rebel groups in Tanf are marching on Damascus.
This is important. The Syrian rebels will likely push aside pro-Iran elements that have established themselves near the Golan. This includes Hezbollah members and militias that have threatened Israel in the past. There will others who want to try to draw Israel into the conflict in Syria. The IDF said on December 7 in the evening that “an attack was carried out by armed individuals at a UN post in the Hader [Khadr] area in Syria.”
The IDF is said to be assisting the UN forces in repelling the attack. This shows that the IDF is ready to assist the UN and has been deployed in force in Golan. Israeli communities in the Golan also have security teams that have been in the army over the past year and have trained for any eventuality. The Golan had been targeted by Hezbollah, so they know the situation is tense. Majdal Shams was also targeted by Hezbollah, killing 12 teens this year. The Golan has faced threats.
The Syrian conflict could affect Israel. Many things are in play, including Druze in Suwayda, who are backing the rebellion this time. This is important. In addition, Iranian assets in Syria, such as Kiswah and other Iranian bases, may be overrun by the rebels. Things are developing so quickly that it will be important to watch this front near the Golan to see who emerges on the other side.
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