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No Israeli official will give an exact timeline to how long they will give Trump to reach a new and more acceptable nuclear deal with the Islamic Republic.
By YONAH JEREMY BOB FEBRUARY 13, 2025 20:38 Updated: FEBRUARY 13, 2025 20:45
An illustration of Defense Minister Israel Katz and US President Donald Trump
(photo credit: REUTERS, SHUTTERSTOCK, YONATAN SINDEL/FLASH90)
Israeli officials have made it clear in recent months that the IDF has the capabilities to attack Iranian nuclear sites, but for now, is waiting on US President Donald Trump’s diplomatic opening with Tehran, say top sources.
No Israeli official will give an exact timeline to how long they will give Trump to reach a new and more acceptable nuclear deal with the Islamic Republic.
However, a statement by Defense Minister Israel Katz on January 26, reports on Thursday from the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post, and a report in late January from Al Arabiya have all indicated that potential action could come in the upcoming months.
Katz hinted at potential action versus Iran in the "upcoming months" in his initial congratulatory letter to incoming US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.
"Iran and its partners continue to threaten...regional and global stability. The upcoming months present us with challenges that require military readiness and opportunities that allow us to further our strategic goals. I am confident that together we can succeed, creating long term stability and a better future for the region," said Katz in the letter to Hegseth.
Israel is prepared to attack
On Thursday, both the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post released reports that US intelligence has concluded that Israel is prepared to attack Iran’s nuclear program around the first half of 2025.
On January 20, Al Arabiya reported that a senior European diplomat said that Israel had already decided it would attack the Islamic Republic’s nuclear sites, implying such an attack was not imminent but also not in the distant future.
“We believe Israel has taken the decision to attack following the developments in the Middle East over the last several months,” one senior European diplomat said, according to the report.
Recently, Katz also said that Israel is ready more than ever to potentially attack Iran and its nuclear facilities, something which a number of Israeli and US officials have said more frequently than ever in recent months.
A significant aspect of their statements has noted that since Israel's counterattack destroying Iranian anti-aircraft defenses on October 26 (after Tehran massively directly attacked the Jewish state cumulatively with around 300 ballistic missiles on April 13-14 and October 1), the Islamic Republic's nuclear sites are more vulnerable than they have been in years and the air force has shown it can attack there with deadly precision.
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The Washington Post laid out two possible attacks: one, a distance attack, known as a standoff strike, which involves the launching of air-launched ballistic missiles, or ALBMs, outside of Iranian airspace; the second, arguably riskier option, involves Israeli aircraft entering Iranian airspace, flying near the nuclear sites and dropping BLU-109s, a type of bunker buster.
Notably, the sale of guidance kits for BLU-109s to Israel was approved by the Trump administration last week.
Dug deep under a mountain
All of this is relevant because Iran has one of its key nuclear facilities dug deep under a mountain at Fordow and another potential future facility deep under a mountain near Natanz – this in addition to the existing above ground nuclear facilities at Natanz.
It is unclear that the BLU-109s, which are part of a 2,000-pound package, would be sufficient to penetrate these underground facilities, and as such, Israel has for years requested the 30,000-pound MOAB (mother of all bombs) bunker buster from the US, with Washington always refusing, including in Trump’s first presidential term.
However, the Post and Target Tehran have described methods to damage or cut off access to such facilities without destroying them completely, which could be accomplished even without a MOAB.
Despite Israel’s excitement about its achievements against Iran’s air defenses and about Trump’s perceived support for a grand attack to destroy Tehran’s nuclear program, Trump has sent repeated clear signals since his inauguration that he wants time for diplomacy.
Just last week, Trump wrote, “Reports that the United States, working in conjunction with Israel, is going to blow Iran into smithereens, ARE GREATLY EXAGGERATED,” on Truth Social.
Accordingly, the Post understands that Israel will definitely give Trump some period of months for diplomacy.
The real cut -off may not be the first half of 2025 as much as it is the known October 18, 2025 deadline date for the parties to the 2015 nuclear deal to invoke the global snapback sanctions mechanism.
Israel may feel forced to act if the snapback is not invoked and then expires.
Program possibly set back
While the Washington Post says an Israeli strike might only set back Iran’s nuclear program by months, other top sources believe they could set back the program by one to two years.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian made an unprecedented admission on Thursday that Tehran's enemies may be able to strike the country's nuclear centers but then added his view that they cannot deprive it of its ability to build new ones.
"They threaten us that they will hit nuclear facilities... If you (the enemy) strike a hundred of those, we will build a thousand other ones... You can hit the buildings and the places, but you cannot hit those who build them," Pezeshkian said, according to Iranian state media.
Top sources would acknowledge that one major strike on Iran’s nuclear program would not end the threat, but do say that it would relieve the current threat, impose new costs on continuing the program, and maintain Israel’s success at blocking the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program dating back to the late 1990s.
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