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Is PA crackdown on terror too little, too late; Jewish extremist violence still high; confronting the Iranian smuggling threat from Jordan
By YONAH JEREMY BOB DECEMBER 19, 2024 18:01 Updated: DECEMBER 19, 2024 18:02
IDF soldiers from the Central Command carry out operational activities in the West Bank
(photo credit: IDF)
Palestinian terror from the West Bank is at lower levels than it was during the Second Intifada despite the IDF having much smaller forces there and an environment of a continuous regional war, the IDF said on Thursday.
During the Second Intifada, the IDF Central Command had several full size divisions to try to end years of terror, whereas currently there are only 19 battalions in the West Bank.
Divisions often incorporate between 15-25 battalions, such that the current forces are much smaller than what the IDF Central Command had at its disposal during those years.
At the height of 2022-2024 during the increased terror wave and current war, there were up to 30 battalions in the West Bank. Prior to the 2022 terror waves, there were around 11 battalions.
Also, while all IDF soldiers are a significant part of the military, many of the units in the West Bank currently are from less elite units than what was available to IDF Central Command during the Second Intifada.
While the total number of terror incidents for the current war and the Second Intifada period were comparable, many more Israeli civilians were killed by West Bank terror during that earlier period. Around 450 Israelis were killed during a comparable Second Intifada period whereas 2024 saw around 40 killed Israelis – very high for the last decade, but much lower than the Second Intifada.
All of this comes in the context that the IDF has viewed the West Bank terror threat as at most the third most threatening front, after Gaza and Lebanon, with it sometimes falling to fourth behind Iran, Syria, or others.
In addition, although terror levels are far above where they were in 2021 and the years immediately prior, the IDF said that there is a downward trend compared to most of the rest of the war and also that public riots are extremely rare even compared to those earlier years.
Public riots
Rather, the IDF said that in prior years, public riots were accepted by the military as a standard way of life which were unavoidable and at most could be managed and prevented from getting too large.
According to the IDF, the stark reduction in public riots was achieved without changing military rules of engagement, but just by a general policy of more regular and aggressive raids against those provoking those riots.
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Also, the IDF said that six additional battalions that it received over time to guard the “border” areas between Israel and the Palestinians mostly eliminated what had been a phenomenon of tens of thousands of Palestinians crossing illegally into Israel on a regular basis.
IDF sources said that a recent meeting with Israeli Judea and Samaria regional council leaders led to overall positive feedback about the relative level of security their residents feel, given the still unstable region.
Despite those positive aspects, terror in 2024 is still far above pre-2022 levels.
2024 has seen 253 Palestinian terror incidents, which is lower than the 847 spike in 2023 and also lower than the 2022 waves of terror spike of 342, but still far above the earlier years of 91 in 2021, 50 in 2020, and 48 in 2019.
The numbers are better for lower grade Palestinian violence, such as lower grade rock throwing with 1,188 incidents in 2024, which is lower than all of the years of 2019-2023, with a high during those years of 8,633 incidents and a low of 1,350 incidents.
Around 800 Palestinians have been killed by the IDF since the start of the current war with the military saying that 96% were fighters or terrorists, and around 30 civilians who were mistakenly caught in the crossfire.
By year, the IDF said it has killed 479 Palestinian terrorists in 2024, 504 in 2023, 155 in 2022, 77 in 2021, 20 in 2020 and 27 in 2019.
Comparatively, 37 Israelis were killed by Palestinian terrorists in 2024, 41 in 2023, 32, in 2022, and only between two to five per year between 2019-2021.
Around 6,000 Palestinian terror suspects have been arrested since the start of the war, with 2,350 connected to Hamas. 2,400 of them have had indictments filed against them.
3,700 Palestinians are being held in administrative detention, a number dwarfing the number of Palestinians held during the Second Intifada by around three times, when the numbers only broke the 1,000 level.
Even during the later years of the Second Intifada and during the Knife Intifada of 2015-2016, the number of administrative detainees was more in the 700 range.
In quieter years over the last two decades, the numbers were usually down closer to 200-300 at a time.
Another major change has been the number of air strikes, which is now at 100 for the current war. In contrast, there were essentially no air strikes in the West Bank from 2005-2023.
Palestinian Authority
IDF sources complimented the Palestinian Authority for its latest operation this week in the Jenin refugee camp against other Palestinian terror and lawless groups.
However, the same sources noted that the PA has only killed three and arrested only a few dozen Palestinians in around over a week and a half.
This means, said IDF sources, that the PA is likely moving too slowly and allowing certain pockets of terror to remain concealed or to escape to other areas.
Also, while the PA has invested around 300 of its forces in getting Jenin under control, this leaves it exposed in other areas.
The IDF said it has paved the way for the PA to receive upgraded weapons and force protection to fight against Palestinian terrorists in Jenin, though with some limits so as not to endanger IDF troops in the future should some of the PA forces at some point change sides.
Finally, IDF sources hope the PA will show a more sustained determination this time against lawlessness in Jenin, but have doubts whether the PA security forces, especially at the rank and file level, will have staying power.
IDF sources noted that only after Jenin terror groups stole three PA vehicles and attacked a PA police station with a bomb, did the PA finally take more serious action to crack down on them.
Iran smuggling weapons into West Bank via Jordan
The IDF is concerned about ongoing Iranian efforts to incite West Bank Palestinians into a new terror wave, including with deadlier and higher quality weapons smuggled in from Jordan, and especially due to Tehran’s losing of proxy power in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza.
Part of the IDF’s conceptual shift to cope with the issue is viewing the Jordanian border not as a law enforcement standard border issue, but as a full-fledged military front.
This is a confusing conceptual framework given that Jordan is an ally at peace with Israel, but the IDF views this shift as necessary because the Jordanians are not capable of fully blocking Iran’s clever smuggling attempts.
The IDF is also trying to avoid either a “Lebonization” or further “Gazaization” of West Bank terror. The idea is to be active enough against Palestinian West Bank terror, such that groups will neither be able to use powerful weapons like Hezbollah in Lebanon, nor will they be able to organize into larger military operating units, like Hamas in Gaza.
Despite some successes in this respect, the IDF is concerned at the volume of improvised explosives constantly flowing through the West Bank.
The view on Jewish extremist violence against Palestinians is very mixed.
In 2024, there have been 663 incidents, in 2023 there were 1,045, and in 2022 there were 947, seeming to show an improvement, but 663 is still far above prior years when there were 446 in 2021, 353 in 2020, and 339 in 2019.
The IDF said that Jewish extremist violence against Palestinians had increased correspondingly to increased Palestinian terror, but does not really have an answer yet for bringing down the levels to pre-2022 levels.
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