IDF seeks US sign-off on continuing war with Hezbollah citing ceasefire violations

To date, the IDF has killed around 50 Hezbollah fighters since the ceasefire, but almost all of those occurred within the first month.

By YONAH JEREMY BOB JANUARY 22, 2025 20:51

Israeli army forces stand outside a house that was hit by rockets fired by Hezbollah from Lebanon in the northern Israeli border town of Kiryat Shmona on Nov. 26, 2024. (photo credit: JALAA MAREY/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES)

The IDF is hoping that the government and key Western powers like the US will support it being able to extend its stay in southern Lebanon beyond the January 27 deadline to around another 30 days to ensure that more Hezbollah weaponry concealed in border villages is destroyed.

However, the IDF told the Jerusalem Post that Hezbollah had committed dozens of violations of the ceasefire deal, but they would be considered short of significant, given that Hezbollah has not fired into Israel since late November.

While there aren't specific classifications of ceasefire violations, some would be considered more egregious than others, such as firing into Israel and trying to hit something or firing into an open field.

Significant violations short of firing into Israel could include moving weapons and armaments around.Most minor violations consist of actions like approaching close to an IDF defense line suspiciously but not actually doing anything.

It was unclear if these violations would be enough to convince the US and others to allow the IDF to stay in southern Lebanon for a temporary longer period and whether the whole situation could blow up into a return to a larger war.

Already in late December, around 30 days after the November 27 ceasefire, the IDF said that Hezbollah had carried out around 120 very minor ceasefire violations, with a small number of those also involving attempts by Hezbollah to move some of its rockets from one location to another, and the IDF generally attacking cells involved in this activity. 

In the one instance that Hezbollah fired into Israel during the first week of the ceasefire after the IDF had killed a number of Hezbollah fighters, the group merely fired two mortars into an open area of the Golan Heights.

To date, the IDF has killed around 50 Hezbollah fighters since the ceasefire, but almost all of those occurred within the first month, with much less friction between the IDF and Hezbollah during the month of January.

Pushing to maintain ceasefire

The Biden administration and sources close to the Trump administration have emphasized that the ceasefire with Hezbollah must not collapse.

Hezbollah has said it will reignite the war with Israel if the IDF does not withdraw on day 60.

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France and other international parties also want the IDF out and have accused the military of dozens of its own violations of the ceasefire.

Seemingly to try to support its narrative of needing more time to destroy Hezbollah weapons which it says that the Lebanese army has been too slow to eliminate itself, the IDF also announced on Wednesday that it had found an entirely new stash of concealed Hezbollah weapons near the border.

Another difficult issue on Day 60 will be how the IDF handles unarmed civilians returning to their villages if it has not yet withdrawn.

During the 60-day ceasefire period, the IDF warned that it would fire on anyone approaching its defense lines under suspicion of being Hezbollah fighters.

But it will be harder to make this argument after Day 60, especially if there is little outside global support for Israel remaining in southern Lebanon.

Although this has not been publicly discussed, another option would be for Israel to continue to carry out air strikes periodically against Hezbollah weapons, even if it does withdraw on Day 60.

But if the Lebanese army does not keep Hezbollah out of southern Lebanon, the IDF could consider returning to a larger conflict.