8 hours ago
8
ARTICLE AD BOX
Sources have indicated that the E-3 is still concerned that Israel or Trump may only push Iran over the nuclear weapons line.
By YONAH JEREMY BOB JANUARY 13, 2025 12:03
Iranian centrifuges are seen on display during a meeting between Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and nuclear scientists and personnel of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), in Tehran, Iran June 11, 2023.
(photo credit: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS)
Iran and various European powers are meeting in Geneva on Monday and Tuesday in last-minute nuclear talks right before incoming US president Donald Trump enters office in the US on January 20.
The E-3 powers (England, France, and Germany) are trying to get new concessions from the Islamic Republic before Trump enters and throws his own aggressive style into the standoff, while Tehran is trying to insulate itself from Trump's most bombastic possible moves by positioning itself as open to cooperation.
However, if after the sides spoke in December, there had been some potential anticipation of significant moves or even a new interim understanding before Trump entered office, that possibility seems to be recording with only a week left.
Rather, it appears both sides are merely trying to feel out the other side to best position themselves once Trump does take office, including threats from France to restore full sanctions on the ayatollahs if there is no deal in the near future.
The negotiations also come against the backdrop of increased discussion, in concrete terms, of a potential Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear sites, given that Jerusalem already destroyed Iran's best air defenses this past April and October and given escalating hints that the Trump administration may provide the Jewish state with weapons to carry out the attack which the US had refused to provide until now.
Going a little bit further back, on November 22, the IAEA Board of Governors condemned Iran for its nuclear violations for the second time in 2024, following a condemnation in June and another condemnation back in 2022.
This came shortly after Israel's October 26 attack, which disabled most of Tehran’s key anti-aircraft systems that protect its nuclear facilities, after Donald Trump emerged as the new president-elect and as the E-3 were about to meet with the Islamic Republic about renewing nuclear negotiations.
There are additional reasons why the West may be more ready for confrontation with Tehran. Not only have Iran’s nuclear violations continued and escalated since 2019 and in a very dangerous way since 2021, but around October 2025, the ability for the West to use the UN global snapback sanctions weapon against Iran will finally expire.
This weapon was a part of the 2015 nuclear deal, which, while reduced to being on life support, still has a provision that allows the US or the E-3 to snap back full global sanctions on Tehran with no chance for a veto by Russia or China.
At the same time, invoking the snapback sanctions weapon could lead Iran to take more aggressive moves with its nuclear program in retaliation.
Stay updated with the latest news!
Subscribe to The Jerusalem Post Newsletter
In fact, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said explicitly in November that his country could decide to cross the 90% weaponized uranium threshold or even cross the entire nuclear weapons threshold if the West tried to use the snapback against it.
And this might be no idle threat.
When the IAEA condemned Iran in June, the Islamic Republic increased its uranium enrichment program, and it did so again following the November 22 condemnation.
In fact, since Trump pulled the US out of the nuclear deal and reimposed at least American sanctions in 2018, Tehran has continually matched any penalty or condemnation with moving its nuclear program forward.
It is exactly for this reason that the E-3 and the Biden administration have been reluctant to initiate a showdown with the Islamic Republic any sooner than the October 2025 expiration date might require.
But this dynamic may have changed lately.
Israel’s attack on 20 Iranian sites on October 26 (following the ayatollahs’ attack on the Jewish state on October 1) both disabled the country’s defenses of its nuclear facilities and destroyed one of its secret weapons group activities for potential nuclear detonation at Parchin.
Trump entering office means that the ayatollahs face an impending economic and diplomatic maximum-pressure campaign and less maneuvering room than they have had under Biden.
Some were even worried that Iran would try to break out to a nuclear weapon before the election, but the Post has no indications from top Israeli defense officials that that is realistically in the works.
This would seem to have made it in Iran’s interest to reach a deal with the E-3 and the Biden administration before Trump takes office.
It would not have bound Trump – he already exited the 2015 nuclear deal – but it would, to some degree, have limited the effectiveness of any new pressure campaign he might try.
As all of this is happening, Iran is also in the process of a broader rethinking of its regional strategy, having lost Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Assad regime in Syria as three major proxies who could deter Israel from striking its nuclear program.
One sign that the Islamic Republic may try to cut a deal in the near future is that Araghchi explicitly said that it is still open to talks even after he felt that IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi and the E-3 betrayed a small initial deal he thought had been made.
Days before the IAEA Board condemned Iran, Grossi revealed that he had offered Tehran to avoid a condemnation if it agreed to freeze its 60% uranium enrichment and started the process of bringing back some of the nuclear inspectors that it expelled in early 2023.
Tehran agreed and thought it had dodged a condemnation and that it would have already cornered Trump a bit with a positive diplomatic process.
It turned out that Grossi could not “deliver the goods,” and the E-3 stuck to the condemnation, saying the Islamic Republic would need to do more to return to a more positive standing with them.
After all of these zigzags, the Post understands that the E-3 is still open to a deal with Iran which could help them deal with Trump, and that Israel’s successful attack on Iran and Trump’s election has not brought them to be steadfastly opposed to talks or to feeling overconfident.
Rather, sources have indicated that the E-3 is still concerned that Israel or Trump may only push Iran over the nuclear weapons line.
English (US) ·