Iran faces setbacks in Syria as proxies weaken, struggles to support Assad regime

Iran is clearly trying to shore up support for the Assad regime after the regime suffered setbacks at the hands of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an opposition group.

By SETH J. FRANTZMAN DECEMBER 4, 2024 14:10

Smoke billows near residential buildings in a picture taken from a drone in Aleppo, Syria December 3, 2024. (photo credit: REUTERS/Mahmoud Hasano TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)

Iran has admitted that the current setbacks to the Syrian regime are a challenge for its "axis of resistance" in the region. Iran's Axis consists of Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, Iraqi militias, the Syrian regime, and other groups.

Iran has mobilized the Axis to attack Israel since the Hamas attack on October 7. For instance, Hezbollah began attacks on Israel on October 8, 2023. The Houthis have been attacking ships in the Red Sea. Militias in Iraq have used drones to threaten Israel. Now, the "axis" has faced setbacks.

Iranian state media IRNA said on December 3 that "Iran's top general has warned that the recent surge of terrorist activities in Syria is part of an American-Israeli scheme to weaken the Syrian government and its allies in the Axis of Resistance." This is a major admission of failure by the Iranian regime.

Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Major General Mohammad Bagheri made the comments in phone calls this week, according to Iranian media. He called Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, as well as his Iraqi and Syrian counterparts, Major General Yahya Rasool and General Abdul Karim Mahmoud Ibrahim, respectively.

Iran is clearly trying to shore up support for the Assad regime after the regime suffered setbacks at the hands of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an opposition group. HTS took over Aleppo in late November and now threatens to march on Hama, another major city in Syria.

ISLAMIC REPUBLIC leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting with members of Iran’s Basij militia in Tehran, Iran, earlier this week. (credit: REUTERS)

The US-backed SDF is also clashing with Syrian regime forces in the Euphrates River valley. A US A-10 warplane was spotted supporting the SDF. The US backs the SDF in the war on ISIS. However, it looks like these clashes could also weaken the regime's grip on the Euphrates River valley as well.

Iran struggles to support Syrian regime

Iran's backing of the Syrian regime is now at risk because Iran's other proxies in the region are weak. Hezbollah is taking part in a ceasefire with Israel after being hammered by Israel in two months of heavy fighting. Hezbollah may have lost more than 3,000 fighters. These are men who can't help the Syrian regime now. In 2012, Hezbollah was instrumental in helping the Syrian regime against Syrian rebels.

Iran is now blaming Israel and the US for the setbacks to the regime in Syria. Iran sent its top diplomat to Damascus and Ankara this week to discuss the situation. Now, the Iranian military is reaching out to Russia and others in the region.

"The discussions centered on the resurgence of terrorism in northwestern Syria, where government forces are battling a lightning offensive by foreign-backed militants who have captured swathes of Aleppo and moved as far south as Hama since Wednesday," the Iranian reports say.

"General Bagheri emphasized that the coordinated timing of these attacks with a fragile ceasefire in Lebanon indicates a dangerous scenario orchestrated by Americans and Israelis aimed at undermining Syria and its allies in the Axis of Resistance."

---

---

Iran's top general clearly understands the bad situation Iran is in. Iran does not want to deploy troops abroad. It prefers that proxies will die for Iran's cause. The proxies are now weakened. Iran could ask Kataib Hezbollah, an Iraqi militia, to go into Syria. Iran is concerned that HTS will receive military support in its offensive against Hama.

"Javad Ghaffari, a senior figure in Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), was reported to have arrived in Damascus on Tuesday, Iran's state-run Al-Alam news website reported, hours after Iran's foreign minister said Iranian forces could be deployed to Syria if requested by Assad," Iran International reported this week. Iran International is an independent media that is critical of the Iranian regime, as opposed to the Iranian state media reports that had discussed how the Iranian military sees the situation.

Nevertheless, the two reports appear to dovetail with one another and paint a picture of Iranian desperation in trying to save Assad.

Ghaffari has served in Syria before, and he is under US sanctions. "Previously, Ghaffari spent several years in Syria leading forces, including Hezbollah fighters and the Afghan Fatemiyoun militia, in campaigns to reclaim key central and Eastern cities Palmyra, Deir ez-Zor, and Al-Bukamal from opposition groups," the report said. It's not clear if the reports about Ghaffari's current deployment can be confirmed. However, the report shows how Iran may be scrambling and grasping to see what support it can send.

Assad's regime doesn't have many troops or reserves to send into the fight. Iran and Russia will not want to send troops either. The Iraqi militias may not want to be seen as intervening in a major way. This will require some quick footwork by the IRGC to see if it can save the frontlines that are forming around Hama and push back HTS. Absent that, Iran will need a deal with Turkey to get it to stab HTS in the back in Aleppo.