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"The Iranians have paid a very high price for operating all their proxies against Israel over the past year," explained Sabati.
By MAYA COHEN DECEMBER 2, 2024 09:25 Updated: DECEMBER 2, 2024 09:26
Members of Syrian opposition fighters walk along a street in Aleppo, after the Syrian army said that dozens of its soldiers had been killed in a major attack by rebels who swept into the city, in Syria November 30, 2024.
(photo credit: REUTERS/MAHMOUD HASSANO)
The surprising offensive by Sunni rebels in Syria reveals a deep crisis in Iran's strategy, Institute for National Security Studies researcher Benny Sabati said in a recent interview with Maariv, arguing that Tehran's efforts in combatting Israel left the Islamic Republic depleted.
"The Iranians have paid a very high price for operating all their proxies against Israel over the past year," explained Sabati.
Iran finds itself significantly weakened
"Their command has been eliminated, their soldiers and field commanders - many of whom are in Hezbollah, Hamas, and other groups," Sabati noted. As a result, "Iran is entering the campaign in Syria in a very weak state; it has no means to help Assad's regime at all."
This double blow is not only about the inability to provide assistance but also about inflicting harm.
"They targeted a general and several IRGC members, killed them, and captured the Iranian consulate. On one hand, Iran is unable to assist; on the other, it has become a target itself.”
Struggling with parallel fronts
According to Sabati, Iran’s problem is compounded by its inability to manage simultaneous fronts.
"The Iranians have an issue. They neither like nor believe in fighting on two fronts. When they’re focused on the Israeli front, that’s all they deal with," Sabati said.
"They likely had to neglect this front of the extremist Sunnis," Sabati added. "They’ve abandoned it for the past two or three years in favor of focusing on Israel."
The consequences of this neglect are now becoming evident, the researcher argued.
"Now the genie is out of the bottle."
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Turning to Russia for help
In search of a solution, Iran turned to Russia, he continued. "Iran's foreign minister spoke last night with Russia's foreign minister, asking for help."
However, even the Iranian foreign minister's visit to Damascus seemed futile, Sabati added.
"He can come to encourage - that’s all he can do. They don't have much in their pocket."
Domestic criticism and regional implications
The situation is escalating amid internal criticism in Iran, as "the public is very angry about the aid provided to regional countries and all the terrorist organizations," said Sabati.
Meanwhile, the regional implications largely depend on Russia's response.
"If the Russians intervene and suppress this rebellion, it's a different story. If they don’t, we will witness a significant weakening of both Iran and the Syrian regime."
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