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Iran is pushing several narratives via state media, including blaming US and Israel for toppling Assad regime, and turning to Russia and other countries.
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN DECEMBER 9, 2024 21:08
Portraits of ousted Syria's President Bashar al-Assad (R) and Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stand as Palestinians sit at the entrance of the Yarmuk camp for Palestinian refugees, south of Damascus, on March 26, 2024.
(photo credit: LOUAI BESHARA/AFP via Getty Images)
Iran knows that it lost a lot of influence in the region when the Assad regime fell in Syria. Now, the Iranian regime is scrambling to shore up its image. How is Iran doing this? Iran has several narratives it is pushing via its state media.
The first narrative is to try to spin the Syria crisis as something to do with Israel. Iran has blamed the US and Israel for helping topple the Assad regime. Iran does not blame Turkey even though Turkey also played a role. Iran is spinning the story to make it seem that Israel benefits from the fall of Assad and that Israel might even use the Syria crisis to distract from the war in Gaza. Iran wants the region to hate Israel, so Iran is not pleased.
Iran is also portraying itself as flexible. It says it is flexible in dealing with the West. This is because it senses that the West might see it as weak. Iran may like to work with the West as it seeks to break out toward a nuclear weapon in secret, for instance. Iran is trying to portray a “this is fine” sense after the Assad regime’s fall. It is also putting out talking points about how it had warned Assad.
The Iranian regime also wants Syrians to determine their future, Iranian officials have said. This could mean Iran is trying to salvage its influence in Damascus. Iran will want to accommodate the new officials there and find a way to continue to smuggle weapons to Hezbollah.
Iran says it is “sparing no effort” to bring calm to Syria. This is ironic since Iran’s policies brought suffering and chaos to Syria over the years. In addition, the Iranian-backed Palestinian Islamic Jihad group has also spoken out. “Ziyad al-Nakhalah, secretary general of Palestinian resistance movement Islamic Jihad, says the recent developments in Syria are an ‘internal matter’ for the Arab country.”
Russia and Iran
Iran is turning to Russia and to other countries. It wants to shore up economic ties with Russia and the BRICS countries, including China and India. Iran also is open to working with the Taliban.
Iran signaled this on December 9 when its Afghanistan envoy met with the Taliban, according to Iranian state media. “The Embassy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Afghanistan wrote in a message on its official page on the X social network that Ali Reza Bekdali, the new head of the Embassy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Kabul, has met with Amir Khan Muttaqi, the Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs of Afghanistan,” Iran’s IRNA said.
Iran is also trying to project strength in its armed forces. Iran didn’t send troops to help Assad, and it wants countries to know that this is not because its army is weak.
One aspect of working with Russia is a new focus on trade. “Iran and Russia have initiated two major transit-logistics projects to enhance connectivity and trade efficiency. The projects include the Ulyanovsk-Astara rail route and the Volga-Caspian Sea river corridor, expected to slash transit times from 21 days to just seven,” Iran’s IRNA said.
Lastly, Iran is open to continued talks with Russia and Turkey regarding the Astana process. Iran and these countries had recently met on this process that goes back to 2016 and was designed to end the Syrian civil war.
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In Doha this week, Iran met with other countries and discussed Astana. It’s not clear what role this will have with the new government in Damascus.
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