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For the US and its allies, preserving Iran’s territorial integrity is not only a strategic necessity but also an investment in long-term regional stability.
By AIDIN PANAHI DECEMBER 15, 2024 01:08
ISLAMIC REPUBLIC leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting with members of Iran’s Basij militia in Tehran, Iran, earlier this week.
(photo credit: REUTERS)
The Middle East stands at a crossroads as Iran’s territorial integrity becomes a subject of growing debate. Within Iran, the vast majority of its people – whether Azeri, Kurd, Lor, Baloch, or Arab – identify as Iranian and remain firmly committed to preserving their country’s territorial integrity. However, a small segment of the population, often influenced by external actors or driven by grievances rooted in systemic discrimination by the Islamic regime in Iran, advocates for federalism or ethnic autonomy. These marginal calls, while enjoying minimal domestic support, are amplified by foreign powers seeking to exploit Iran’s vulnerabilities, leveraging such movements to weaken the country’s sovereignty and further their geopolitical agendas.
Iran’s territorial integrity is not merely a domestic issue but a foundation of regional and global stability. Geographically and geopolitically, Iran occupies a central position in the Middle East. As the guardian of the Strait of Hormuz – a critical choke point through which 21% of global petroleum exports pass; approximately 17 million barrels of oil daily in 2024 – Iran’s stability has a direct impact on energy markets worldwide. Any disruption to this vital flow would send shockwaves through the global economy, destabilizing markets from New York to Tokyo.
A divided Iran risks losing control over this strategic passage to separatist militias, proxy forces backed by regional powers such as Turkey or Saudi Arabia, or extremist organizations like ISIS. These actors could exploit a weakened central authority to disrupt maritime traffic, impose tolls, or use the strait as a bargaining chip to achieve their geopolitical aims, plunging the region into prolonged instability with global ramifications.
Beyond energy security, the fragmentation of Iran would have profound consequences for its neighbors. Turkey and the Persian Gulf states, in particular, would face significant destabilizing repercussions, including increased refugee flow and heightened regional tensions. While Afghanistan is already grappling with its own challenges, the spillover from a fractured Iran could exacerbate instability throughout the broader region.
Additionally, Pakistan’s Balochistan province has experienced a long-standing insurgency by Baloch nationalists, who advocate for an independent Balochistan that spans ethnic Baloch areas in Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan. Such developments would not only ignite new conflicts but also add layers of complexity to the existing wars, proxy battles, and geopolitical rivalries in the Middle East. The disintegration of Iran’s central authority would amplify tensions, creating power vacuums that foster extremism and invite proxy wars, destabilizing the region for decades.
Iran’s territorial integrity is a foundation of both United States and Israeli national security, as its fragmentation would trigger cascading effects across the Middle East. For the US, a stable Iran is essential for countering adversaries such as Russia and China, both of which would exploit a fractured Iran to expand their strategic influence. Russia could entrench its military and political foothold in the region, while China would leverage Iran’s strategic location to advance its Belt and Road Initiative, undermining US efforts to maintain regional stability and secure critical trade routes.
For Israel, the stakes are equally high.
A direct/indirect threat?
While the current Iranian regime poses a direct threat through its proxies like Hezbollah, a fragmented Iran could lead to ungoverned spaces that serve as safe havens for extremist groups, creating unpredictable security challenges. Additionally, a divided Iran would embolden rival powers like Turkey to extend their influence over regions, further destabilizing the regional balance of power.
The preservation of Iran’s territorial integrity does not imply support for its current regime. Division and fragmentation are not viable solutions with which to dismantle the regime’s authoritarian grip. Instead, the focus must remain on empowering the Iranian people in their pursuit of democracy, within a unified framework.
Policymakers in the US and Israel should adopt a dual strategy: intensifying targeted pressure on the regime while amplifying support for democratic movements and civil society. Sanctions must be designed to isolate the regime’s leadership and dismantle its oppressive institutions without inflicting harm on the broader population. At the same time, diplomatic efforts should engage exiled opposition leaders to amplify the voices of Iranians advocating for change. This strategy avoids direct engagement with the regime, while reinforcing external pressure and fostering internal resilience to promote unity.
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For the US and its allies, preserving Iran’s territorial integrity is not only a strategic necessity but also an investment in long-term regional stability.
The Middle East cannot endure another cycle of destabilization, nor can the global economy absorb the shocks of intensified instability in such a critical region.
The writer is an Iranian-American research professor and energy expert, political and human rights activist, organizer of joint events between Iranian and Jewish communities in Massachusetts, and leading the From Boston To Iran Group alongside other fellow activists.
English (US) ·