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Intelligence suggests that Iran could produce a crude nuclear device that could act as an immediate deterrent rather than an offensive threat.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFF FEBRUARY 4, 2025 08:49 Updated: FEBRUARY 4, 2025 08:55
Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei over an Iranian flag.
(photo credit: Canva, OFFICIAL KHAMENEI WEBSITE/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS, SHUTTERSTOCK)
A recent intelligence assessment has led American officials to believe that a covert team of Iranian scientists is exploring a more rapid, though less advanced, route to developing a nuclear weapon, The New York Times reported Monday.
The intelligence, reportedly collected in the final months of the Biden administration and shared with the Trump administration during the transition, suggests that Iran may be seeking a shortcut to turn its growing stockpile of enriched uranium into a functional weapon within months rather than a year or more, according to the report.
However, US officials maintain that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has not made a final decision to pursue a nuclear bomb, The New York Times said.
The intelligence assessment comes as Iran’s regional influence is reportedly at its weakest in years, the report noted.
American and Israeli officials believe that Iran’s key proxy forces, Hamas and Hezbollah, have suffered significant setbacks, while Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has fled to Moscow, limiting Iran’s ability to move weapons through Syria.
Additionally, an Israeli strike in October targeted Iran’s missile defense systems and unofficial parts of its nuclear infrastructure, further impacting the country’s military capabilities.
Some US officials now believe that Iran may view nuclear capability as a necessary deterrent against potential military action from the US or Israel, The report noted.
While Iran has amassed enough enriched uranium to build multiple nuclear weapons, developing a functional warhead remains a complex process that would require additional time and resources.
Diplomatic implications and the Netanyahu-Trump meeting
The issue is expected to be central to Tuesday’s meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump.
Meanwhile, Iran’s newly elected president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has signaled an interest in negotiations with Washington. However, experts cited by The New York Times suggest that Pezeshkian and Iran’s foreign ministry may have limited knowledge of the country’s nuclear activities, as much of the program is overseen by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
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The US approach: Diplomacy or military action?
Despite concerns over Iran’s nuclear advancements, Trump has previously indicated a preference for diplomacy, stating, “Hopefully, that can be worked out without having to worry about it. It would really be nice if that could be worked out without having to go that further step."
While the intelligence assessment suggests that Iran has the technical ability to build a crude nuclear device, such a weapon would not be sophisticated enough to be deployed via missile, making it more of a strategic deterrent than an immediate offensive threat, the report said.
Iran has long denied that it is pursuing nuclear weapons, maintaining that its nuclear program is solely for civilian purposes. However, past intelligence—such as Israel’s 2018 operation that uncovered Iranian nuclear documents—has cast heavy doubt on these claims.
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