Is it time to prepare for the fall of Hamas?

No attempt has been made in Gaza to create an alternate authority to Hamas in Gaza, despite the opportunities to do so.

By SETH J. FRANTZMAN DECEMBER 15, 2024 21:38

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar attends a rally marking the 35th anniversary of the movement's founding, in Gaza City December 14, 2022. (photo credit: IBRAHEEM ABU MUSTAFA/REUTERS)

Recent reports have indicated that Hamas may be having an internal crisis at a time when surveys show that there is less support for the group. If the reports are based partly on reality, then Hamas could be at risk of falling apart in Gaza. However, if that is the case, then Israel would need to prepare for the end of Hamas rule. 

A report in Saudi Arabia’s Elaph was referenced in a new report at Israel Hayom. According to these reports, a Hamas official in Turkey said, "Hamas is suffering from a genuine leadership crisis. The Al-Aqsa Flood attack backfired on us, submerging us in a sea of blood and crises. The most recent blow was the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria, with which Hamas had been attempting to rebuild relations."

Another survey being shared online claims to show that only seven percent of respondents think Hamas should govern Gaza when the war with Israel is over. That survey, which was prepared for the Tony Blair Institute, surveyed 1,400 Palestinian adults in the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem in July and August. One question asked, “Which entity would you prefer to govern Gaza immediately after the war?” In Gaza, it seems only seven percent wanted Hamas to stay in charge. In the West Bank, it was more.

What do these small bits of data point to? It’s possible that a deal with Hamas in Gaza could bolster it, but it’s also possible it could be overthrown in a popular uprising, similar to how the Assad regime was overthrown. One thing making it harder to overthrow Hamas is the decision since the war began to move civilians in Gaza into areas controlled by Hamas. There are around 2 million people in Gaza. When they are evacuated, they move to areas run by Hamas. For instance, in October, the IDF launched an operation in Jabalya. The 70,000 people were asked to move from there into areas controlled by Hamas.

Multiple opportunities to test alternative authorities in Gaza 

No attempt has been made in Gaza to create an alternate authority. This is despite the opportunities to do so. For instance, when the IDF cut off parts of northern Gaza from Gaza City in October as it prepared to enter Jabaliya, there was an opportunity to put a new governing authority in charge of Beit Lahiya, Beit Hanoun, and other small areas. This could have provided a test for a new authority. However, it is not clear what authority that would be. Israel appears reticent to rely on the Palestinian Authority because of fears it might unite the Palestinians or lead to Hamas gains in the West Bank.

Palestinian security forces take position during clashes with gunmen in Jenin in the West Bank, December 14, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/RANEEN SAWAFTA)

The Palestinian Authority Security Forces have begun new operations in the West Bank. “Over the past week, Palestinian security forces have intensified operations against terror groups in refugee camps across the West Bank. On Saturday, exchanges of gunfire erupted in Tulkarm between armed groups and Palestinian forces. Meanwhile, both Tulkarm and Jenin saw protests supporting terror organizations, accompanied by tire burnings and demonstrations against the Palestinian Authority's security actions,” Ynet reported.

As the PA pushed forward, it could create a backlash. It’s possible that even if Hamas doesn’t fall, the PA could actually be in jeopardy. Sources also say that Israel is concerned about the fallout from Syria affecting Jordan. Jordan supports the PA and has done airdrops in Gaza to help people. Meanwhile, the US has asked Israel to facilitate the transfer of military equipment to the PA amid its attempt to crackdown on terrorists in Jenin. The PA's success in Jenin could be a model for it to rule Gaza. But Israel doesn’t likely want that. This leaves a big gap in the question of what happens if Hamas falls or if there is an opening to remove it. In the absence of such a plan, it is likely Hamas will continue to rule Gaza.