Israel is reshaping the Middle East as Assad regime crumbles

Amid Syria’s shifting power dynamics, what's next for Israel and the Middle East?

By ZINA RAKHAMILOVA DECEMBER 11, 2024 04:59

SPENT BULLET CARTRIDGES lie on the ground after rebels seized Damascus and ousted Syrian President Bashar Assad this week. Syria has been a complete mess, as a country that failed to take into account the number of different religious minorities and ethnic groups in the territory, says the writer. (photo credit: MOHAMED AZAKIR/REUTERS)

Many of us are watching what is happening in Syria with mixed emotions, unsure of how this will play out and what it means for Israel. Former Syrian president Bashar Assad who, following in the footsteps of his father, Hafez Assad, ruled Syria with an iron fist.

Since its founding in 1946, Syria has been a complete mess. It is a country created by Western powers as part of the Sykes-Picot Agreement that failed to take into account the number of different religious minorities and ethnic groups in the territory, including Sunnis, Shi’ites, Kurds, Assyrians, Druze, Christians, Armenians, and many others.

The civil war in Syria, which began in 2011 against Assad’s regime, has raged for over 13 years, leaving 300,000 dead and more than 12 million refugees. Finally, the regime has been toppled.

On one hand, watching the fall of Assad feels like sweet justice, as both he and his backers in the Islamic regime have once again been humiliated and defeated. He was one of the most savage dictators, a mere puppet of Russia and the regime in Tehran, who slaughtered Syrian children with chemical weapons.

Now that Assad has been defeated, the threat posed by the Islamic Republic and Hezbollah against Israel has diminished, as Syria served as a land bridge for weapon transfers to Hezbollah. The world is undoubtedly a better place now that Assad has lost power and is hiding in Russia.

President Assad meets President Putin in Moscow, July 25, 2024 (credit: SCREENSHOT/X)

Israeli security 

On the other hand, no one fully understands what this could mean for Israel’s security until the dust settles. The rebel groups are primarily led by an Islamist faction called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (THS), initially an offshoot of al-Qaeda.

Immediately after Assad fled, Israeli reporters stated that the Israel Defense Forces began strikes on chemical facilities to prevent them from falling into the wrong hands.

Only when the dust settles will we know what this might lead to.

However, one thing is certain: In the last year, Israel has done more for stability in the Middle East than decades of ineffective UN agencies and Western diplomats.

On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched a barbaric assault on Israeli soil, believing it could achieve a decisive victory with the ideological and financial backing of Tehran and its proxies. The operation aimed to massacre and kidnap as many civilians as possible, hoping to galvanize the regime and its proxies.

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Instead, it triggered a chain reaction that forced Israel to reshape the Middle East and marked the beginning of efforts to confront extremist regimes and organizations in the region.

In the last year, Israel has reduced Hamas and Hezbollah to a pile of rubble and assassinated top leaders such as Ismail Haniyeh, Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, Hassan Nasrallah, and Fuad Shukr. These figures were on the FBI’s Most Wanted Terrorists list, and many thought it would be impossible to eliminate them.

Iran, the mastermind behind these terror networks, already weakened and cornered, has now lost its primary access to Hezbollah. With Hamas, Hezbollah, and Assad gone, the radical Shi’ite regime is in deep trouble.

It would be inaccurate to say that the toppling of the Assad regime by radical Islamist groups in Syria is a better outcome for Israel. However, for decades, the Islamic regime has financed and built up terror organizations under the assumption that they could carry out atrocities without facing consequences. Israel has shattered that illusion and demonstrated that the regime cannot act with impunity, as seen with the events of October 7.

Now is the time to support the people of Iran and the minorities in Syria. The global community must stand united to ensure that this reckoning becomes a turning point – one that ends the cycle of terror and paves the way for a future of security and peace.

The writer is the co-founder and CEO of Social Lite Creative, a digital marketing firm that specializes in geopolitics.