Israel Preparing for Sudden Attack as Russia-Iran Axis Is Cracking in Syria

Photo Credit: Michael Giladi/Flash90

The border fence between Israel and Syria, seen from the Druze village of Majdal Shams, October 9, 2024.

After the rebels in Syria managed to capture the cities of Hama and Aleppo within a week, the top brass of the security establishment in Israel have been following those developments with concern, Kan11 reported Thursday night citing two sources familiar with the details. The sources said that Israel and the United States are detecting signs of a certain collapse of the Syrian army’s defense lines.

As stated by the rebels themselves, their inspiration for the sudden attack on the Assad regime––as soon as the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah went into effect––was twofold: first, the collapse of Hezbollah in less than two months under IDF pressure; and, second, the success of the October 7 Hamas attack.

In less than a week, the rebels took control of Aleppo, the country’s largest city, and then captured the city of Hama. Iran and Russia will now have to invest a significant military effort to prevent their continued advance southward to Damascus. For the first time in six years, the Assad regime is once again in danger. This was borne by the failure of Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The rebels in Syria recognized the weakness and confusion in the Iranian axis and rushed to strike at the weak point.

The surprise attack, and the brutality displayed by the rebels, many of whom are affiliated with al-Qaeda offshoots – they all recall Hamas’s surprise attack on the Gaza Envelope settlements. Of course, the Hamas attack was inspired by ISIS’ 2014 capture of huge areas of eastern Syria and northern Iraq, driving their white Toyota pickup trucks as a modern-day version of the Arab emergence from the peninsula in the 7th century.

As a result, a scenario that Israel must prepare for with the utmost seriousness includes sudden attacks by terrorist militias, about which military intelligence may have only scant information.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday convened a discussion on the issue with Defense Minister Israel Katz, Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, and senior General Staff officers. The concern in the defense establishment is that the rebels will advance south and reach southern Syria near the Israeli border on the Golan Heights.

The city of Hama has not been captured since 1982, not even during the Syrian civil war. Israel sees this as a dangerous precedent that demonstrates that the rebels are unpredictable. At this stage, Israel does not see any significant resistance from Assad’s army, and there is a growing concern that Syrian army weapons will fall into the hands of the rebels.

IDF fighter jets attacked overnight Friday weapons transfer routes and terrorist infrastructure near the border crossings between Syria and Lebanon which were controlled by the Syrian army and used to transfer weapons to Hezbollah. The attack was intended to damage the capabilities of Unit 4400, Hezbollah’s reinforcement unit responsible for transferring weapons through civilian infrastructure at the border crossings in Syria.

However, the attack also denied the Syrian rebels access to the same weapons, and as the new wave of rebels gets closer to Damascus, we should expect to see IDF attacks on their weapons depots.

THE RUSSIA-IRAN AXIS

In 2016, Russian and Iranian forces, staunchly backing Bashar al-Assad’s regime, waged a relentless year-long campaign of airstrikes, ground assaults, and siege to wrest eastern Aleppo from opposition control. Their victory came at a devastating cost, cementing Assad’s grip on Syria’s fractured landscape.

Fast forward to 2024, and the tables have turned. In a matter of less than four days, anti-Assad rebels achieved what once seemed unthinkable: they liberated Aleppo, Syria’s largest city, along with most of Aleppo Province. Their momentum carried them further, reclaiming swathes of territory in neighboring Idlib Province and advancing southward into northern Hama before the Assad regime could hastily establish defensive lines.

Notably absent from the battlefield were Assad’s powerful backers. Russian forces remained confined to their Mediterranean bases, while Iranian troops and Hezbollah fighters—entrenched in positions in northwestern Syria—found themselves outmaneuvered. Facing swift rebel advances, they retreated, though not without losses, including the deaths of at least two senior commanders.

For Assad, the reversal is a stunning blow. Since 2020, after Russian and Iranian interventions helped his regime claw back significant territory, he had presided—at least nominally—over a fragmented country. The Assad regime-controlled major cities like Aleppo and Damascus, while Turkish-backed rebels governed much of the northwest, and U.S.-aligned Kurdish factions maintained autonomy in the northeast.

Now, Assad’s grasp has slipped further. His hold on Syria’s partitioned territories has weakened to the point of collapse, and his once-dominant allies—Russia and Iran—are too stretched and isolated on the global stage to prop up his faltering rule. The developments leave a seismic shift in Syria’s landscape, upending years of painstakingly built alliances and fragile stability.