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Whatever path forward is chosen, the Houthis will need to suffer more serious blows because, currently, they feel emboldened.
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN DECEMBER 24, 2024 14:46
A Houthi pictured at a rally to show support for the Gaza Strip, in Sanaa, Yemen December 20, 2024.
(photo credit: REUTERS/KHALED ABDULLAH)
Overnight, the Iranian-backed Houthis launched a ballistic missile at Israel. This is the fourth attack in two weeks. There were also Houthi missile attacks on December 21, December 19, and December 16. The Houthis are increasing their attacks and showing they are not deterred by Israel’s strikes or Israel’s rhetoric.
Defense Minister Israel Katz visited the Arrow air defense battery that intercepted the missile overnight. “We will not accept the fact that the Houthis continue to fire at the State of Israel: we will deal with the heads of the Houthis in Sana'a and everywhere in Yemen,” he said.
Katz made similar comments on December 23, when he vowed that Israel would severely weaken the Houthis. He compared Israel’s actions on this front with the way Israel had fought Hamas and Hezbollah. He noted that Israel had eliminated Hamas leaders Ismail Haniyeh, Yahya Sinwar, and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Katz was clear on his vow regarding the road ahead. “We defeated Hamas, we defeated Hezbollah, we blinded the defense systems in Iran and damaged the production systems, we toppled the Assad regime in Syria, we severely wounded the axis of evil - and we will also severely strike the terrorist organization The Houthis in Yemen who are left standing last.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also vowed to increase retaliation against the Houthis. He said Israel would act with force, determination, and sophistication in comments on December 22.
The Houthis are not deterred by these words. They have shown that not only are they not deterred, but the more Israeli officials make bold statements, the more the Houthis will launch missiles to show that it has no effect on them. The Houthis understand the strategic and tactical picture. They have been attacking ships for a year and received only a very modest response from the US naval forces, which have been deployed as part of an operation designed to protect shipping.
It's important to understand that what the Houthis are doing is relatively new in the region. They are not a state seeking to blockade a waterway, but rather, they are a terrorist group acting as if they are a state. They have succeeded in cutting down the ability of many firms to ship via the Red Sea. They also attack Israel with relative impunity. Israel has carried out three rounds of airstrikes against the Houthis, one in the summer, one in the fall, and one recently in December. However, the strikes have no deterred the Houthis. This is because they steeled themselves in war against Saudi Arabia for years after Riyadh intervened in Yemen in 2015. Saudi Arabia had many of the latest warplanes and technology thanks to close ties with the US, and yet Riyadh could not defeat the Houthis.
The Houthis are dug in on the high ground of the mountains of Yemen. They have had Iranian backing and advice for years about constructing tunnels to hide missiles and how to deploy missiles quickly. The Houthis have developed a more sophisticated missile and drone program than Hamas and Hezbollah. Hamas hides underneath civilians to launch rockets and attacks. However, it has to exist in a relatively small area of Gaza. Hezbollah carpeted southern Lebanon and the Bekaa with weapons and missiles, but it was not able to hide its long-range missiles, and it is so close to Israel that it is much easier for Israel to strike Hezbollah. The Houthis are 2,000km away from Israel, requiring complex planning to strike them.
There is another fact in this war, which is not one that most of those making statements want to acknowledge. Precision air strikes usually do not win wars. Precision firepower on warplanes is not a magic wand, and it often deceives militaries into thinking they can accomplish things that cannot be accomplished solely with warplanes.
This is clear from the failure of the US-led coalition against Saddam Hussein to stop the Scud attacks on Israel during the Gulf War. That was called the “great Scud hunt,” and it wasn’t so great, nor did it achieve the intended results. Saddam’s regime was deploying Scuds in Anbar province, in the desert. The Houthis are rolling missiles out of tunnels in the mountains, and it is incredibly difficult to pre-empt or predict. It may be even harder to find the stockpiles and eliminate the Houthi leadership.
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This does not mean it is impossible to defeat the Houthis. However, Israel would do well to be careful about learning the wrong lessons from Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Iran. Israel’s war in Gaza has gone on for a year and two months and Hamas is not defeated. Hamas controls most of Gaza and holds 100 hostages and continues to dictate terms in the hostage talks. Even in northern Gaza where the IDF’s 162nd Division has been unleashed for two months to hunt down terrorists in Jabaliya, Beit Lahiya and Beit Hanoun, the terror threat continues. On Monday, the IDF said three soldiers were killed by an IED in Beit Hanoun. There are still terrorists in Beit Hanoun, near the border with Israel, despite a year of operations.
Lessons from other fronts may not be applicable in Yemen
In Lebanon, Hezbollah has been weakened, but it still exists. It may have lost leaders and weapons, but it would be wise not to think that it has vanished. Is Hezbollah weaker today than in 2006? It may regrow itself.
Similarly, Israeli officials have taken credit for the fall of Assad, but the reality is that Assad fell because of his own hollow regime and the ability of the opposition to mobilize and take advantage of the weakening of Hezbollah. Lastly, the lessons of Israel’s strikes on Iran are not yet clear. The Houthis present a challenge, and the lessons from other fronts may not be applicable in Yemen.
Clearly, whatever path forward is chosen, the Houthis will need to suffer more serious blows because, currently, they feel emboldened. The fact that millions of Israelis in central Israel are now forced into shelters every two nights is not an acceptable way to live. Rather than boasting about defeats of the enemy, it would be better to consider that Israel has been put in a vulnerable situation because of the increased power of its enemies.
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