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Remnants of Syria’s governance left by the old regime are welcoming new leaders.
By NATHAN KLABIN/THE MEDIA LINE DECEMBER 13, 2024 14:12
Syrian Kurds flash the V for victory sign as they celebrate the fall of capital Damascus to anti-government fighters, in the city of Qamishli on December 8, 2024.
(photo credit: DELIL SOULEIMAN/AFP via Getty Images)
Less than two weeks after the Syrian National Army (SNA) began its latest offensive against then-President Bashar al-Assad, the rebel forces now find themselves as Syria’s new leaders. Led by the former Harakat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) member Abu Mohammad al-Julani, the rebels’ efforts are currently focused on transitioning into the provisional Syrian Salvation Government (SSG). Following the collapse of Assad's regime, Syria has embarked on a political transformation, signaling an opportunity to rebuild the nation after over a decade of civil war.
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As the fighting forces transition to establish a new government for Syria, global leaders have expressed measured optimism while underscoring the challenges ahead. Echoing similar sentiments, governments from the US, France, the UK, Germany, and even Saudi Arabia welcomed the fall of Assad’s regime as a pivotal moment for Syria but also warned of the risks of such a transition, especially since Julani’s HTS is an offshoot of al-Qaeda. Even Turkey has stayed away from normalizing relationships with the SSG, even if, behind the scenes, the NATO member has helped the SNA in multiple ways.
The international community understands the delicate balance required to navigate this historic turning point and the need for stability, political solutions, and protection of civilians and minorities. As Syrians are finding themselves in an internal debate regarding their future, foreign leaders were therefore cautious not to cross certain lines until they understand if the SSG will restore order, peace, and freedom while also cooperating internationally.
Itay Goitman, a Middle Eastern affairs researcher specializing in Syria-related subjects, offered a pragmatic view of HTS. “The SSG functions as a sort of political wing for HTS, but in reality, it operates more as a puppet. Both entities are controlled by the same leadership and do not act independently from the militant side of the organization,” he told The Media Line.
“As for basic government infrastructure and the provision of daily services, those are likely to remain relatively unchanged from the previous regime. However, what will be critical to watch in the coming weeks is the relationship between the Kurds and HTS. The developments during this period could provide significant insights into how the situation may evolve,” Goitman added.
Similarly, Dr. Mohammad Salami, an associate research fellow at the International Institute for Global Strategic Analysis, explained to The Media Line the risks involved in expecting HTS to abandon its radical beliefs in the new Syria. “This group was once a branch of al-Qaeda, and after splitting off, it changed its name to Harakat Tahrir al-Sham. The strategies and goals of a group can easily change, but beliefs rarely do.”
Continued Salami: “The group is made up of Islamist members who have participated in this war with high moral goals and a strong belief in jihad. The pursuit of secularism and action against Sharia disappoints them. On the other hand, this group is not homogeneous, and as the group leader, al-Julani cannot make decisions independently without considering the opinions of others,” he said.
For now, even the UN Security Council seemed to agree on Syria. Diplomats from the US and Russia reported a unified stance on key issues, such as preserving Syria's territorial integrity, protecting civilians, and facilitating humanitarian aid to those affected by the conflict. Meanwhile, Syria's UN Ambassador, Koussay Aldahhak, assured that Syrian missions and embassies would continue operations throughout the transition despite the rebel victory by HTS, a group currently under UN sanctions. At this point, discussions in the Security Council regarding the potential lifting of sanctions on HTS have not yet commenced.
Dr. Steven Terner, the manager of Terner Consulting, a New York-based geopolitical and business consultancy, explained to The Media Line that the fall of the Assad regime, “while certainly conducted by Syrian citizens, on behalf of Syrian citizens, satisfies the interests of regional and global actors that oppose both the Iranian regime and the Russian regime, namely Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Israel, the EU, the US. In this case, the interests of Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Europe, and the United States are aligned, and there is a feeling of immediacy to act due to the upcoming change in the geopolitical position of the US with Trump’s imminent presidency.”
Meanwhile, in Syria, the world is watching attentively as the transition takes place. On Syrian social media news channels, public service announcements have provided much-needed updates to Syrians amid this fragmented landscape of their country.
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The coastal area of Latakia, known for its allegiance to former President Assad, is reportedly in direct communication with the SSG’s Transitional Council in Damascus. The Latakia Council of Elders representing the Alawite community, Assad’s ethnic group, has issued an announcement supporting the SSG.
According to the declaration, the community’s Alawite Council wrote that they supported the new vision for a national Syria and publicly called for “doctors, engineers, and intellectuals, to return to our country so that we can contribute together to building a modern Syria based on harmony and love. Let us and the people in our regions not carry weapons and get involved in shedding Syrian blood. We confirm the unity of the territories of the Syrian Arab Republic and its sovereignty belonging to the motherland Syria.”
Having established a provisional general command for Syria, the SSG announced on social media that “it is strictly forbidden to interfere with women's dress or impose any request regarding their dress or appearance, including requests for modesty. We affirm that personal freedom is guaranteed to all and that respect for the rights of individuals is the basis for building a civilized nation.”
Women’s rights among first targets of Islamists
Considering that women’s rights are one of the first targets of Islamists, Dr. Salami highlighted the importance of this announcement. Despite general skepticism towards the newly formed SSG, he said that “the initiation of a government on women's clothing at least shows their intelligence in how much they want to be recognized internationally. The emergence of the Taliban in Afghanistan is a bad experience for the HTS. The Taliban’s crackdown on women’s rights and their inability to contain ISIS-K have led world powers to view all Islamist groups with suspicion.”
Another statement by the SSG’s general command also declared that “it is strictly forbidden to attack media personnel working in the Syrian TV, Syrian Radio, and social media pages. It is forbidden to make any threats to them under any circumstances.” For those failing to comply, the violators will be imprisoned for a year, according to the SSG.
Similarly, the new provisional Ministry of Information “called on everyone to join their work during the next two days so that the various media outlets can resume broadcasting and issuing documentation of a fateful stage in the history of Syria.” The country’s provisional Ministry of Communications also stated on social media that “the Internet is working normally and an agreement has been reached with HTS to continue communications, and we will return to our work sites within two days.”
Universities are also providing a sense of normalcy amid the fast changes. Tishreen University announced that it had resumed its administrative and academic work with the return of its administrative and academic staff working as usual, with the dates of practical examinations to be determined later.
According to a public statement by the Tishreen University Administration: “The university administration asks all deans, professors, employees, and students to attend the university headquarters tomorrow at ten in the morning for those who can as a volunteer work day to clean the university and protect the gains of the sons of the homeland. We must work as one team to build the homeland and preserve public property from infrastructure, documents, and university certificates that belong to all students. The Syrian people deserve a decent life and a better future, and we ask God that the coming days will bring goodness to all.”
Damascus University’s president issued a similar statement, assuring students and their families that “the educational process will continue, and the deans of the colleges and members of the teaching staff have been directed to exercise their paternal and cognitive role during these days. Damascus University continues to play its role in preserving the gains and rights of our students. We hope everyone will preserve the infrastructure and educational institutions because they belong to the people of Syria.”
The Syrian Central Bank informed on the same media channels that it’s working and “will continue to follow up and supervise the work of banking and non-banking financial institutions operating in accordance with the applicable regulations. The bank demonstrates the continuation of the work of these institutions by providing their services to customers in an appropriate manner. We assure our fellow citizens dealing with all operating banks that their deposits and funds placed with these banks are safe and have not and will not be exposed to any harm.”
While the SSG is projecting a commitment to national unity, personal freedoms, and institutional rule, experts are skeptical, especially regarding the relationship with the Kurdish population in the autonomous regions in northeastern Syria. Having borne the brunt of both ISIS's wrath and Assad’s repression, the Kurds remain cautious about the SSG’s intentions and its ability to safeguard minority rights.
Boaz Shapira, a researcher at the Alma Research and Education Center, explained to The Media Line the Assad family adopted a more secular posture because they were Alawites. He argues that if the SSG were to impose an Islamist way of life, “it would be hard for a lot of people. The HTS and other factions want an Islamic regime and all that comes with it. Some of them are practically the same as ISIS. Meanwhile, you have people like the Kurds, the Assyrians, Sunni Arabs, which are also much less religious.”
For now, HTS and its Islamist allies are being more moderate and talking in ways “that are palatable to Western leaders, like making sure the minorities are protected and we respect everyone. Still, HTS has a complicated history with many allegations of human rights violations. So, the SSG must be tested on what he does, not what it says. This isn’t just about the Alawites. The Kurds control about 30% of Syria, and they want their own country,” Shapira highlighted.
Ehtesham Shahid, an independent analyst based in Dubai, also explained that “given the transformation HTS has brought about in its approach in recent years, it looks like a possibility that HTS could become more moderate. However, it will require an equal, if not more, wiser approach from the other groups that are stakeholders in Syria. Kurds would look at Turkey before formulating a response, while for Alawites, it would be a matter of survival,” he argued.
According to Shahid, HTS “understands that being moderate is their best foot forward, at least for now. So, they would stick to this formula and test the waters on what radical policies they can implement and which ones might face resistance. It is not in their interest to become Syria’s Taliban.”
Still, Goitman also sees problems underway for Syria’s internal dynamics with HTS and the Kurds. According to him, “With Turkish intervention and a lack of Russian and Iranian support, the situation is very tense right. HTS is not fond of the Kurdish idea of a Kurdish state, and the Kurds are scared that HTS is going to continue fighting. During this past week, HTS has been getting confrontational, especially up north, with Kurdish forces. And I think that's something to look out for.”
Shir Mor, a counterterrorism and Middle East researcher at the ITSS Verona, told The Media Line that “the Kurdish community, which had long been oppressed under Assad's rule, saw the regime's collapse as an opportunity to pursue greater autonomy. However, their position remains precarious, with ongoing attacks from hostile factions, such as the recent assault on Kurdish forces in Manbij by rebel groups, heightening their vulnerability. In response, the Kurds have sought international alliances, including with Israel, to secure their communities and stabilize the region.”
Receiving Turkish support, the SNA has been accustomed to getting more support the more anti-Kurd they are. “It's important to recognize that Turkey is fueling an anti-Kurd sentiment in Syria. Turkey doesn't like the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK), and they don't like Kurds in the northeast. So, for HTS, if they want to stay on Turkey's good side, they need to be more anti-Kurdish,” Goitman detailed, adding that the situation could easily derail into violence.
For Israel, the cause of the Kurdish State acts as a counterbalance to Iranian ambitions in Syria and involves humanitarian aid and potential strategic assistance, positioning Israel as a key player in facilitating cooperation among Syria’s fragmented factions. “Through its diplomatic leverage with Western powers, Israel can advocate for frameworks that protect minority groups like the Kurds and promote decentralized governance models that allow for regional autonomy and broader national cohesion,” Mor concluded.
Regarding Russia, after 10 years of war in Syria and involvement in quagmires in Ukraine, the Central African Republic, Mali, and Burkina Faso, Putin’s forces are stretched thin. Dr. Terner explained that Russia’s interests in the Caucasus and Central Asia “are under threat of coming undone due to widespread resentment toward Russian economic and political exploitation in those countries. European countries have been uniting strategically and expanding NATO to counter the Russian threat on the continent. Additionally, the US and EU are likely trying to squeeze Russia on every front before the incoming US administration led by Donald Trump abandons Europe to get closer to Russia,” he added.
For now, the international community will not forget HTS’s less-than-ideal past, including its close ties to the Taliban and al-Qaeda. However, “if the HTS can recognize minority rights, avoid hostility towards the US-backed Kurds, and establish an inclusive government, recognition is possible. Still, adhering to these points with groups fighting across Syria with conflicting goals and intentions is optimistic, at least in the short term. However, it is not impossible,” Dr. Salami said.
Despite all the challenges ahead, Shahid believes the world has already recognized HTS. “For the international community, it is about accepting the lesser evil. The unraveling of the Assad regime has also exposed its brutality, and the new Syrian government would be seen as liberators who ended this decades-old tyranny.”
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