Likud drops by one seat following Lebanon ceasefire, survey finds

The Religious Zionist Party strengthened the coalition bloc by one mandate, compared to the previous poll, granting it 51 seats. 

By MOSHE COHEN NOVEMBER 29, 2024 09:53

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at a Memorial Ceremony for people who were murdered during the October 7th Massacre, at the Knesset, the Israeli parliament in Jerusalem, October 28, 2024. (photo credit: Chaim Goldberg/Flash90)

The Likud party would garner 24 seats, dropping by one mandate,  if elections for the Knesset were to be held today, according to a Friday poll published by Maariv, after the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon came into effect earlier this week. 

The Religious Zionist Party gained a seat and crossed the electoral threshold. As such, it strengthened the coalition bloc by one mandate, compared to the previous poll, granting it 51 seats. 

When respondents were asked, "If elections for the Knesset were held today, who would you vote for?"  the results indicated that Likud would secure 24 seats, followed by National Unity with 19, and Yesh Atid with 15. Yisrael Beiteinu was poised to win 14 seats, while the Democrats would yield 11, dropping one seat in comparison to the previous poll.

Shas was projected to earn nine seats, while Otzma Yehudit and United Torah Judaism would garner seven seats, respectively, losing a mandate apiece.

Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am were projected to win five seats a piece, while Religious Zionism would garner four seats. 

Former prime minister Naftali Bennett seen in an illustrative (credit: FLASH90)

Balad and the New Hope-United Right, however, fell below the electoral threshold. 

What would happen if Bennet runs?

When asked for which party they would vote for if former prime minister Naftali Bennett would form a party to join the electoral race, respondents granted such a party 24 seats. 

In such a case, the Likud would decrease to 21, National Unity would drop to 13 seats, and Yesh Atid would garner 12 mandates. 

The Democrats would drop to nine seats, Shas and United Torah Judaism would each hold eight seats, Yisrael Beiteinu and Otzma Yehudit would secure seven seats each, and Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am would maintain five seats each. 

In this scenario, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition would hold 44 mandates, similar to the previous poll, while the opposition and Bennett would have 66, and Arab parties 10.

---

---

The poll was conducted by Lazar Research, led by Dr. Menachem Lazar, in partnership with Panel4All.