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If these steps are not taken, Egypt is heading toward a catastrophic fate beyond any rational imagination.
By MOHAMED SAAD KHIRALLA JANUARY 18, 2025 10:59 Updated: JANUARY 18, 2025 11:01
TURKISH PRESIDENT Recep Tayyip Erdogan meets with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on the sidelines of the D-8 Summit in Cairo last month. Egypt risks becoming a backyard for Turkey, joining the Syrian backyard, the writer warns.
(photo credit: Turkish Presidential Press Office/Reuters)
Will Egypt follow Syria’s path? This question is increasingly being raised in research centers and discussion forums across the Middle East and beyond.
In Egypt, it has become the talk of the hour – or rather, the trending topic dominating discussions.
The debate intensified after Ahmed al-Mansour, a former fighter and leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) – the main force ousting Syria’s Bashar al-Assad – called for protests in Egypt.
Mansour, who founded the “January 25th Revolutionary Movement,” released several videos threatening Egypt’s president while promoting a widely shared hashtag: “Your Turn Is Coming, Dictator,” hinting that the Egyptian president would meet the same fate as Assad.
Who is Ahmed Mansour?
Ahmed Mansour was born in Alexandria and belongs to the Al-Awadhia tribe in Sohag, Upper Egypt. He left Egypt to join Jaish al-Fatah in Syria, where he was responsible for planning and oversight. He later joined HTS but resigned after the fall of Assad’s regime in Damascus.
Muslim Brotherhood platforms widely promote his biography, portraying him as a heroic figure to be emulated. A closer analysis of his rhetoric, however, reveals clear allegiance to extremist jihadist ideologies, with the Muslim Brotherhood serving as his primary intellectual inspiration.
These protest calls from his movement emerge amid rising public discontent in Egypt over government policies, reflecting growing political and social tensions.
Widespread reports have recently emerged claiming that Mansour has been detained in Syria. A statement from the verified account of the movement’s official spokesperson, Hazem Mansour, on X/Twitter confirmed the detention.
It clarified that their leader had disappeared along with some of his companions on Tuesday. They were on their way, in response to an invitation from the General Security, to meet with Syrian Defense Minister Maj.-Gen. Murhaf Abu Qasra, who had been the movement leader’s commander on the Syrian revolution fronts.
The statement highlighted the bond of shared struggle and blood between the Egyptian and Syrian brothers. It also emphasized their desire not to cause any embarrassment to their Syrian brothers in their international relations. Furthermore, the statement demanded Mansour’s immediate release.
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As of now, no official statement has been issued by the Syrian side.
Senior media figures within the Muslim Brotherhood state that handing over Mansour to Egypt would be a betrayal of the sacrifices made by the Syrian revolution fighters and that such an act would be an unforgivable mistake if it were to happen.
Ahmed al-Sharaa is the leader of what is called the Syrian revolution and the man who currently controls everything inside Syria. If Mansour were to be assassinated, it would give some of Sharaa’s men a justification to rebel against him.
The crisis in Egypt: public discontent
One of the primary drivers of public anger is the publication of images showing President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi inside the new presidential palace in the New Administrative Capital.
These images sparked widespread outrage due to the palace’s massive size, dwarfing even the White House several times over. This palace adds to the 25 other palaces, villas, and resorts linked to the presidency, all constructed before Sisi assumed power.
Despite this, new palaces, retreats, and presidential villas continue to be built as if Egypt were among the richest countries in the world. Notably, Sisi once justified these constructions with a now-famous statement: “I’m building presidential palaces, and I will continue to build them – not for myself, but for Egypt,” as if Egypt itself had pleaded for or benefits from more of them.
This outrage compounds years of frustration among Egyptians, especially upon learning that their president – who frequently advocates austerity – uses an ultra-luxurious Boeing 747-8i “Queen of the Skies,” one of the most expensive presidential aircraft in the world.
At the heart of Egypt’s crisis lies a military that has entirely lost its functional role. It has suppressed politics, monopolized the economy, and seized all resources. Consequently, Egypt now ranks among the lowest globally in terms of per capita income.
Indicators for education, healthcare, housing rights, judicial fairness, press freedom, civil liberties, and the role of NGOs are also alarmingly low. Egyptian prisons reportedly hold at least 70,000 political prisoners, some of whom were arrested merely for liking a post on Facebook or X/Twitter.
At the same time, domestic debt has reached 13 trillion Egyptian pounds ($257 billion), while external debt is nearing $154 billion.
It is worth highlighting the importance of listening to prominent Middle Eastern stakeholders, such as Egypt’s opposition leader Hisham Kassem – a liberal politician and publisher who remains inside Egypt and is a staunch advocate of peace.
The extent of the economic crisis was underscored in December 2024 by Mohamed el-Etreby, CEO of the National Bank of Egypt, who revealed that approximately 2,360 companies exited the Egyptian market during the first half of the year.
Economists attribute this exodus to several factors, including difficulties in repatriating profits due to the severe dollar shortage in Egyptian banks, high borrowing costs, and stagflation.
Will Mansour’s protest call succeed?
The likelihood of him succeeding is minimal. His movement lacks the basic tools and mechanisms for effective ground mobilization. Most likely, this call will join a long list of initiatives launched by the Muslim Brotherhood over the past decade, which have only served to strengthen the authoritarian military regime. Such calls are more likely to result in increased arrests and crackdowns.
However, despite the potential failure of Mansour’s attempt, future calls may succeed as public anger grows day by day. The question is not whether an explosion will happen, but when.
What would the success of the calls for protests on January 25 mean?
It would mean that Egypt risks becoming a backyard for Turkey, joining the Syrian backyard. We must consider that several thousand members of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood residing in Turkey have obtained Turkish citizenship, thus doubling their allegiance to the so-called caliphate state and its “caliph,” Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
These individuals are less concerned with Egypt’s future than with reviving Ottoman aspirations in a new guise for the sake of the larger Islamic project and global dominance. This specific point has not been addressed before, and I felt it necessary to document it.
Can Egypt avoid collapse? Yes, but only if the following steps are implemented immediately:
1. Returning the Egyptian army to its barracks, abolishing mandatory conscription, and reforming military curricula to promote humanity.
2. Ensuring the immediate withdrawal of the army from politics and the economy.
3. Placing the military under strict civilian oversight through a national police force.
4. Reforming the judiciary and guaranteeing its independence.
5. The immediate release of all prisoners of conscience who have not participated in or incited violence.
6. Launching genuine democratic reforms that allow youth to participate in shaping the country’s future.
7. Fully opening the public sphere and guaranteeing civil liberties, freedom of the press, and the unrestricted operation of NGOs.
8. Removing religious institutions from public life and limiting their role to spiritual guidance only.
9. Restoring Egyptians’ sense of ownership of their country’s resources, ensuring that every citizen feels like a partner in protecting and preserving the nation.
10. Dismantling hate speech directed at Jews and Israelis in educational curricula and religious institutions. It is time to stop practicing contradictions.
The Egyptian state presents itself to the world as committed to the peace treaty with Israel, while state institutions simultaneously incite against the Israelis day and night, which charges society with an energy of hatred and hostility.
If these steps are not taken, Egypt is heading toward a catastrophic fate beyond any rational imagination. I conclude my article with the timeless words of Martin Luther King Jr.: “Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.”
The writer is a political analyst specializing in Middle East affairs and Islamic movements, an opinion writer, and a member of the Swedish PEN Association. He lives in Sweden.
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