Netanyahu likely to choose IDF intel over Mossad on Houthis, delays direct strike on Iran

If there is a major Iranian strike or counter-strike against Israel, the IDF is on the hot seat for failing to prevent hits.

By YONAH JEREMY BOB DECEMBER 22, 2024 21:42

download high resolution download low resolution add to lightbox file name: F241218MA52 File Size: 6139 KB caption (en): Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrives to the courtroom at the Distrcit court in Tel Aviv, before the start of his testimony in the trial, December 18, 2024 (photo credit: Miriam Alster/Flash90)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will likely accept what appears to be an IDF intelligence recommendation to respond to the latest Yemen Houthi ballistic missile attack with a direct counterattack against them over what appears to be a recommendation by Mossad Director David Barnea to respond by attacking Iran directly.

Barnea has been among the country's leading hawks on Iran throughout his term and has tended to advocate hitting Tehran more often and harder, whereas IDF intelligence has tended to be more conservative about direct attacks on the Islamic Republic in light of the potentially grave consequences.

Also, Barnea and the Mossad frequently view Iran through a general strategic prism of needing to weaken the broader long-term threats it poses, whether through its nuclear program, its conventional weapons, and its terrorism worldwide.

In contrast, the IDF is responsible not only for Israeli offense but also for air defense.

This means that if there is a major Iranian strike or counter-strike against Israel, the IDF is on the hot seat for failing to prevent hits, such as that occurred on Saturday morning in Jaffa.

Mossad chief David Barnea seen during a ceremony held at the Yad Vashem Holocaust Memorial Museum, May 5, 2024 (credit: Chaim Goldberg/Flash90)

Where does Netanyahu stand?

At this time, it appears that Netanyahu favors the IDF intelligence approach because he wants to hold out for potentially attacking Iran at some later date, likely not until after Donald Trump has taken office on January 20.

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Friday, Netanyahu defied any attempts to pin him down about attacking Iran, suggesting that no attack is imminent but that such an attack is also part of Israel's long-term thinking.

Although Netanyahu knows that Iran can pressure the Houthis, it appears that he would prefer to separate those fronts at this point in order to achieve different goals as well as to not disturb movement toward a potential hostage deal with Hamas.

Past exchanges with Iran have delayed hostage negotiations, sometimes for extended periods.

Katz's position remains unclear 

It is unclear what Defense Minister Israel Katz's position is on the issue. To date, he has not taken any significant positions different from Netanyahu, whereas his predecessor, Yoav Gallant, sometimes agreed with Netanyahu but was also ready to disagree on critical policy decisions.

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In Netanyahu's public comments, he asked for patience, which also supports a narrative of needing more time to gather intelligence for hitting the Houthis in a more effective manner, whereas Israel already has a huge target bank for Iran.