Netanyahu’s 'temporary ceasefire' strategy: a calculated pause or a risky gamble?

Netanyahu’s “framework, not a deal” narrative faces political and strategic tests from inside and outside Israel.

By AMICHAI STEIN JANUARY 18, 2025 22:35 Updated: JANUARY 18, 2025 22:36

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a plenum session on the state budget in the assembly hall of the Israeli parliament, December 16, 2024. (photo credit: Chaim Goldberg FLASH90)

"Describe it as a framework, not a deal." This directive, sent to Israeli ministers by the cabinet secretary ahead of media interviews, encapsulates Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's current strategy.

With the agreement to release 33 hostages in exchange for over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, coupled with a ceasefire in Gaza and the withdrawal of IDF troops from certain areas, Netanyahu is striving to frame this development not as the conclusion of the war but as a strategic pause. In his Saturday night statement, he emphasized, "This is a temporary ceasefire."

However, Netanyahu faces skepticism from his political base and members of his own coalition. Many of his voters and allies doubt the claim that this is merely a temporary measure.

After nearly a year and a half of fighting Hamas, the prospect of halting operations for 42 days, allowing civilians to return to northern Gaza, and pulling the IDF out of Gaza's urban areas appears, to some, like the war's end rather than an intermission. Critics argue that resuming combat will be nearly impossible once the ceasefire sets in and normalcy returns to Gaza, especially with US President Donald Trump's influence looming large.

Netanyahu sought to reassure his cabinet, reportedly stating during Friday’s government meeting, "I insisted that we could return to war with the backing or lack of opposition from the US president." He added, "Trump has given his support to this approach, and if they tell us 'no,' we will do it anyway." These remarks reflect Netanyahu's attempts to assert that Israel retains its autonomy and resolve, even under the watchful eye of its most important ally.

PRIME MINISTER Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump, during his first term as US president, arrive to deliver joint remarks on the ‘Deal of the Century’ proposal, at the White House in 2020. (credit: JOSHUA ROBERTS/REUTERS)

Political risks 

The true test of this framework will come in six weeks. Netanyahu will need to demonstrate whether Israel can credibly resume military operations if the conditions on the ground demand it.

Yet, there are significant political risks. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who resigned from the government, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who has threatened to follow suit, have drawn a hard line: without a return to war, the current government will lose its legitimacy to govern.

The uncertainty extends beyond Israel’s borders. President Trump's dual personas—as the self-proclaimed "deal maker" who seeks to end wars and as an ally to Israel’s military objectives—could influence the decision-making process. Will Trump support a full-scale operation to dismantle Hamas, or will his aversion to prolonged conflicts prevail?

As the ceasefire takes hold, Netanyahu's government stands at a crossroads. The coming weeks will determine whether this "framework" will lead to a resumption of hostilities or mark the end of Israel's military campaign in Gaza. What is clear, however, is that the stakes for Netanyahu, his coalition, and Israel’s security are higher than ever.