NSA Sullivan Warns Trump a Plummeting Iran Would Speed Up Nuclear Program

Photo Credit: Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz / Flickr

President Joe Biden working with National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, during a train ride from Poland to Ukraine, February 19, 2023.

The Biden administration has expressed growing concern over the potential for a weakened Iran to develop a nuclear weapon, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Sunday. Sullivan also revealed that he had been briefing President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team on the looming threat.

Iran, Sullivan noted, has faced significant setbacks to its regional influence, particularly following Israel’s military actions against its allies, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, coupled with the weakening of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a key ally in Tehran’s regional network.

The report comes amid growing speculation that Trump is weighing the possibility of airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities after he is sworn into the presidency.

Sullivan cautioned that the risk of Iran reneging on its pledge not to develop nuclear weapons has grown. “It’s a risk we are working hard to monitor. It’s a risk I’m personally briefing the incoming team on,” he said, noting that he had also consulted with Israel on the matter.

Given Iran’s “weakened state,” Sullivan suggested that President-elect Trump could potentially leverage this position to compel Iran to dismantle its nuclear capabilities. However, according to the Wall Street Journal, Trump and his team have been closely evaluating Iran’s diminished regional standing and are now contemplating airstrikes on the country’s nuclear facilities.

Opportunities for Pres.-elect Trump on Ukraine, China and defense budgeting: part 2 of my exclusive interview with outgoing US Nat’l Security Adviser @JakeSullivan46 pic.twitter.com/7UAIAm2Dot

— Fareed Zakaria (@FareedZakaria) December 22, 2024

Sullivan told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria on Sunday that “it was Trump who pulled out of the last nuclear deal, but maybe he can come around this time with the situation Iran finds itself in and actually deliver a nuclear deal that curbs Iran’s nuclear ambitions for the long term.”

Zakaria: “Iran is now weak, much weaker than it’s been for decades. But that could produce a kind of defensive mentality that it’s not, you know – dealing with countries that are weakened can also sometimes be a tough problem. What is your view of where is Iran and what are its likely actions?”

Sullivan: “You know, dealing with strong enemies is one thing. Dealing with weak enemies is another. And what I found over the last four years is that when good things happen, like Iran being weaker than it was before, there are frequently bad things lurking around the corner.

“One of those things is, if you’re Iran right now and you’re looking around at the fact that your conventional capability has been reduced, your proxies have been reduced, your main client state has been eliminated, Assad has fallen, it’s no wonder there are voices saying, hey, maybe we need to go for a nuclear weapon right now.”

Zakaria asked, “There are obviously opportunities in the Middle East, but it’s also a pretty dangerous situation. Turkey might invade parts of Syria. The Israelis have taken a beachhead. When you look at Syria now, what are you worried about?”

Sullivan: “The single biggest concern I have is the resurgence of ISIS. ISIS loves vacuums. And what we see in Syria right now are areas that are basically ungoverned because of the fall of the Assad regime, and ISIS is doing everything it can to try and take advantage of those, to regrow its capability, to threaten Europe, threaten the United States, threaten Americans all over the world.

“But each of the pieces you just described are connected. So, for example, if Turkey attacks the Kurds – the Kurds are our best partner to fight ISIS. They would be distracted from that fight. The Kurds are the ones who are guarding the prisons where there are thousands of ISIS fighters and tens of thousands of ISIS radicalized family members currently being held in detention. If all those folks got out, you’d be talking about a serious threat to the United States and our friends.

“So, our goal is to ensure that we support the SDF, the Kurds, and that we keep ISIS in check. And that’s why President Biden, right after Assad fell, ordered airstrikes against ISIS positions because we are determined not to let them reestablish the kind of position they had 10 years ago.”