Oct. 7 intel. failure due to psychological blindness of Israeli leaders, expert says

“A fixated mind can make one believe black is white,” he explained.

By SHERRY MAKOVER-BALIKOV DECEMBER 4, 2024 18:33 Updated: DECEMBER 4, 2024 18:39

Charred building in Kibbutz Nir Oz (photo credit: YAEL YOLOVITCH/IAA)

Dr. Ofer Grosbard, a clinical psychologist whose award-winning books have been translated into several languages, attributed the October 7 intelligence failures to the psychological blindness of Israeli leaders in an interview with Maariv partially published on Wednesday.

In the interview, he discussed the personalities of Israel’s adversaries and its leaders, emphasizing the role psychologists play in countering repression.

“A fixated mind can make one believe black is white,” he explained. “Even residents of kibbutzim and moshavim, who witnessed Hamas’s training, heard tunnel activity, and experienced rocket fire, convinced themselves Hamas was deterred. Many believed financial aid would pacify Hamas, as they assumed everyone seeks a better life."

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

“Netanyahu is both a skilled orator and a habitual procrastinator. At critical junctures, he avoided action. During Operation Protective Edge, the cabinet advised continuing the campaign, yet he stopped it. He also hesitated to eliminate Qassem Soleimani. Presented with the ‘grand plan’ to attack Lebanon at the war’s outset, he chose smaller-scale operations. This indecision continued, delaying Gaza entry for weeks and northern operations for months. His tenure has been marked by avoiding military solutions.”

National Unity Head Benny Gantz

“Gantz speaks in a measured tone but misunderstands the enemy. He assumed economic improvements would stabilize the situation and that a small, technologically advanced army and a security fence would suffice.”

National Unity head Benny Gantz speaks at the Knesset in Jerusalem. November 25, 2024. (credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM)

Opposition leader Yair Lapid

“Lapid’s Western, democratic perspective prevents him from grasping the need to dismantle Hamas and Hezbollah. He offered economic recovery plans to Hamas and brokered a gas deal with Hezbollah, granting Nasrallah a symbolic victory.”

Naftali Bennett

“Bennett’s Western optimism, rooted in his background as a commando and tech entrepreneur, blinds him to the enemy’s mindset. Although he advocates a hardline stance, he did not prioritize dismantling Hamas or countering Hezbollah’s buildup.”

Ex-Defense Minister Yoav Gallant

“Gallant, a courageous warrior, led efforts against Gaza rocket fire but failed to understand the enemy. He supported economic aid for Gaza, assuming it would promote calm. He overlooked his own contradictions.”

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich

“Smotrich lacks analytical independence, relying on rhetoric like ‘Hamas is an asset.’ While he supports a strong stance against Israel’s adversaries, his religious worldview hinders objective assessments.”

IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi

“Halevi, a modest and principled individual, suffers from the same cultural blindness. His Western mindset led him to mistakenly believe that deterrence and calm were achievable.”

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Mossad head David Barnea

“Barnea’s ambition prevents him from grasping Iran’s collective, messianic thinking. This perspective prioritizes harming enemies regardless of the internal cost.”

Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar

“Bar believed Hamas shared Israel’s desire for quiet and a better life, focusing on cyber intelligence at the expense of actionable human intelligence. He ignored clear signs of an impending attack.”

'We do not understand the enemy'

Two years before the October 7 attack, Dr. Grosbard was invited to provide consultation to the Research Division of Israeli Military Intelligence (Aman).

At the time, he was teaching cross-cultural psychology at Bar-Ilan University’s Department of Political Science.

Drawing from academic research, he noted that “we do not understand the enemy.” Grosbard cited “cultural blindness,” a psychological phenomenon in which individuals from one culture struggle to comprehend those from another due to differing thought processes.

“When I arrived at Aman, I was handed a massive intelligence manual, mostly filled with flowcharts,” Grosbard said.

“The word ‘emotions’ didn’t appear. I asked researchers, ‘How can you analyze Nasrallah’s strategy with flowcharts while ignoring his sense of self-respect?’ They laughed, but the October 7 attack, like past disasters including the Yom Kippur War, reflects a failure to integrate psychology into Aman’s Research Division. The focus remains on rational analysis, yet humans are irrational, driven by emotions.”