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As the PA intensifies its military operation against Islamist fighters in Jenin, experts warn that its weakening authority could create a dangerous power vacuum in Judea and Samaria.
By AMINE AYOUB JANUARY 10, 2025 17:29
PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY head Mahmoud Abbas meets with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in Rome last month. With Abbas’s leadership in decline and the PA losing its legitimacy among its people, Israel must prepare for the aftermath of Abbas’s era, says the writer.
(photo credit: Guglielmo Mangiapane/Reuters)
As the Palestinian Authority escalates its crackdown on Islamist fighters in Jenin, there are growing warnings about the imminent collapse of the PA and the instability this could bring to the region. This marks a critical turning point not only for Palestinian politics but also for Israel’s security.
With Mahmoud Abbas’s leadership in decline and the PA losing its legitimacy among its people, Israel must prepare for the aftermath of Abbas’s era. In a post-Abbas world, the fragile balance of power in Judea and Samaria could collapse, creating a dangerous power vacuum with far-reaching implications for Israel and the broader region.
The PA’s military operation in Jenin, which began in December 2024, aims to suppress the growing influence of Islamist militants in the area. This crackdown has intensified resentment among the Palestinian population, further undermining the PA’s authority. The authority is now facing increasing pressure to balance its cooperation with Israel’s security needs and maintain its standing among its own people.
The PA’s failure to secure lasting peace or stability in the region has contributed to growing dissatisfaction among Palestinians, making it more difficult for them to view the PA as a legitimate governing body.
For Israel, the implications of this situation are profound. While the Israeli government has supported the PA’s operations to curb rising violence and contain Islamist militancy, there are significant concerns about the PA’s ability to continue functioning as a reliable security partner.
The fact that the PA’s efforts in Jenin have been unable to decisively dismantle armed groups in the region highlights the fragile nature of its governance. This growing weakness opens the door for more radical groups, including Hamas, to exploit the situation and fill the void left by a weakening PA.
Should the PA’s power continue to fade, Israel could face a situation where radical groups such as Hamas or Islamic Jihad gain strength and influence in Judea and Samaria. This would create a direct security threat to Israel, as these groups are committed to the destruction of the Jewish state.
Should the PA collapse entirely, the created power vacuum would be ripe for exploitation by Hamas or other militant factions, threatening to further destabilize the region and pose a direct challenge to Israel’s security.
Some analysts argue that Abbas’s crackdown in Jenin is an attempt to demonstrate the PA’s continued relevance, especially in the eyes of the international community, particularly the United States.
However, this strategy is a dangerous gamble for the PA. By using force against Palestinian fighters, the PA is attempting to prove its capacity for governance, but this is unlikely to result in long-term stability.
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Resistance movements in Jenin and across Judea and Samaria are deeply entrenched, and the PA’s efforts to quell these groups have been largely ineffective. This points to a broader issue: The PA’s ability to maintain control in the face of mounting opposition is increasingly in doubt.
Israel has a vested interest in supporting the PA’s security efforts, but it is clear that this will not be enough to ensure long-term stability in the region. The failure to decisively dismantle the armed groups suggests that the PA’s governance is faltering.
Should the PA be unable to maintain control, the resulting instability will create fertile ground for radical groups to flourish. Israel must be prepared for the worst-case scenario, where a complete collapse of the PA could lead to the rise of more dangerous political forces that could directly threaten Israeli security.
To safeguard its interests, Israel must develop a proactive strategy in the face of a possible PA collapse. This should include reinforcing Israel’s security measures to ensure that any attempt by Hamas or other militant groups to seize control of Judea and Samaria is swiftly countered.
Additionally, Israel must engage diplomatically to prevent international recognition of any extremist factions that might try to replace the PA. By working with moderate Palestinian voices and strengthening regional alliances, Israel can help mitigate the destabilizing effects of the PA’s potential collapse.
Israel’s concern about the potential collapse of the PA is not just hypothetical; the PA’s inability to quell the violence in Jenin and elsewhere suggests that its days as a stabilizing force in the region may be numbered.
The PA’s failure to maintain control could lead to greater instability in Judea and Samaria, with radical factions poised to take advantage of the power vacuum. The prospect of extremist groups filling this void presents a significant security risk to Israel, one that cannot be ignored.
The writer, a Middle East Forum fellow, is a policy analyst and writer based in Morocco.
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