Qaani in Baghdad: Mobilizing Iran’s terror axis against Israel

Qaani’s visit to Baghdad, far from signaling strength, reveals the regime’s desperation to cling to its crumbling empire.

By ERFAN FARD JANUARY 6, 2025 12:05 Updated: JANUARY 6, 2025 12:06

BRIGADIER-GENERAL Esmail Qaani, the head of the Revolutionary Guards Quds Force. The Iranian connection should be front and center in Israeli statements, says the writer (photo credit: WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY/REUTERS)

Since the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s brutal regime in Syria, Iran’s Dictator Ali Khamenei has delivered four inflammatory speeches targeting Syria, including two recent direct threats against uprisings in the country. This rhetoric mirrors the era when Khomeini, the founder of Iran’s Islamic theocracy, provoked Saddam Hussein and Iraq’s army after seizing power in 1979. Khamenei, at 86 years old, remains one of the longest-serving and bloodiest dictators in the modern world, masking his tyranny under a veneer of false sanctity. In his worldview, the entire world is misguided, and only he holds the truth.

This duplicitous despot plays a double game, criticizing Trump through hardliners while pursuing new diplomacy through reformists. But the reality is stark: Khamenei’s spiderweb of Islamic terror networks is collapsing. The million dollars spent on Hamas and Hezbollah have been squandered in defeat. He knows that if Israel, under Netanyahu, and the US, under Trump, dismantle his remaining terrorist proxies, like the Houthis, PIJ and Hashd al-Shaabi, the focus will shift to Iran’s nuclear program. More critically, Khamenei understands that if his nuclear ambitions and producing nuclear bomb are curtailed, the Iranian people will rise in a nationwide rebellion, consigning his regime to the ash heap of history.

While global diplomatic norms often temper such blunt assessments, most Middle Eastern leaders, particularly in the Persian Gulf, recognize the truth. The criminal ayatollahs in Iran came to power through the chaos of 1979’s revolt, riding on a wave of Islamic and Marxist terrorism. They have maintained their grip on power through violence, barbarism and coercion, devoid of legitimacy or popularity at home or abroad. Western diplomatic overtures to Iran betray a fundamental misunderstanding of history and the destructive ideology of Khomeinism.

Today, Esmail Qaani’s arrival in Baghdad has once again dominated headlines across the Middle East. Despite rumors about his fate, Qaani remains a delusional and destructive figure, isolated yet dangerous. Unlike his predecessor, he has yet to earn Khamenei’s Medal of Conquest. His deputies, Iraj Masjedi and Mohammad Reza Fallahzadeh, share his commitment to expanding Islamic terrorism within the Shia crescent. These three men, notorious for their crimes against Israeli and American forces, remain fugitives from justice. But what is Qaani’s true mission in the aftermath of Iran’s repeated failures in the Middle East?

Iranian flag flies in front of the UN office building, housing IAEA headquarters, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, in Vienna, Austria, May 24, 2021. (credit: LISI NIESNER/ REUTERS)

Qaani’s multi-faceted mission

From an intelligence perspective, Qaani’s mission appears to have several dimensions, none of which have escaped the vigilance of Mossad, the CIA, or allied intelligence agencies in the region.

Reinforcing the proxy network in Iraq

Qaani seeks to revive and consolidate control over Iraq’s Shia terrorist groups. These militias, whether Arab, Sunni, or Kurdish (including the Barzanis and PKK), maintain close ties with the IRGC. Qaani aims to exert more direct influence over groups like Hashd al-Shaabi, preventing the collapse of Iran’s proxy network in Iraq. Figures like Ali Sistani, who shares Khamenei’s vision of a Shia crescent, are unlikely to oppose these efforts.

Provoking anti-Israel forces

Qaani’s strategy includes mobilizing Iran’s proxies against Israel to redefine their roles in the regional equation. For Qaani, his deputies, and even Iran’s ambassador to Iraq—a Quds Force operative using the pseudonym Al-Sadeq—every proxy must be weaponized as a tool against Israel. Groups like Hashd al-Shaabi, equipped with missiles, drones, and intelligence from Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and IRGC, are being primed to pressure Israel.

Restoring Influence in Syria

Qaani’s ultimate goal is to reestablish Iran’s waning influence in Syria. For Tehran, Syria has long served as a vital corridor connecting it to Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad, preserving its strategic position against Israel. However, relentless Israeli strikes on Iranian positions in Syria have turned this once-reliable card into a liability, creating a nightmare for Tehran’s military and security apparatus.Strategic Adjustments and Regional Risks

Qaani’s mission also involves mitigating regional pressures. For instance, he may seek to use Hashd al-Shaabi to shield the Houthi terrorist rebels, who are under increasing pressure from U.S. and allied forces. Simultaneously, Iran is investing in local and ethnic groups like the Kurds and PKK, attempting to establish new axes of influence. Yet, such maneuvers are unacceptable to Israel and its allies.

From a strategic standpoint, Qaani’s presence in Baghdad signals a potential effort to redeploy Shia forces or pivot strategies to maintain Tehran’s regional influence. However, these actions underscore the regime’s inherent instability and belligerence rather than any meaningful strategy.

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The bigger picture

Accompanied by his deputies Masjedi and Fallahzadeh, Qaani’s Baghdad mission revolves around preserving and rebuilding Iran’s proxy terror network, escalating pressure on Israel, and coordinating regional operations in Syria. These objectives highlight Khamenei’s determination to maintain his destabilizing role in the Middle East. Yet, given mounting internal and international pressures, these desperate attempts to salvage Iran’s terror network are fraught with challenges.

The CIA’s new leadership, John Ratcliff, in collaboration with the Pentagon and Israel, will likely block Tehran’s ambitions to rebuild its aggressive influence. The reality is that Iran’s regime is weaker than ever, grappling with repeated defeats on regional and international fronts. Khamenei’s fragile spiderweb is unraveling, and the forces arrayed against him are growing stronger.

Qaani’s visit to Baghdad, far from signaling strength, reveals the regime’s desperation to cling to its crumbling empire. For Tehran, the clock is ticking, and the stakes have never been higher.