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Egypt's demographic and economic challenges have weakened its position, creating a vacuum that has been filled by an increasingly assertive Saudi crown prince.
By ELIE PODEH, ONN WINCKLER JANUARY 31, 2025 19:27
FOREIGN MINISTERS and other delegates participating in a meeting on the future of Syria pose for a group photo, in Riyadh, earlier this month. Saudi Arabia has assumed a prominent role under the leadership of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, say the writers.
(photo credit: SAUDI PRESS AGENCY/REUTERS)
On January 12, two seemingly unrelated events took place in Saudi Arabia. In the first, Real Madrid faced Barcelona in the final of the Spanish Super Cup in Jeddah. Thousands of Saudis filled the stands to witness a thrilling 5-2 victory for Barcelona. The game served as a preview of the FIFA World Cup, which will be hosted by Saudi Arabia in 2034.
On the same day, in Riyadh, the foreign ministers of the United States, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and Turkey, along with the secretary general of the Arab League and representatives from the European Union and 11 Arab states, convened to discuss developments in Syria. A few days later, the Saudi foreign minister visited Syria.
This rapid response highlights the immense importance Saudi Arabia places on developments in Syria for the future of the region, particularly in light of the active involvement of Turkey and Qatar. It also reflects Saudi Arabia’s readiness to offer humanitarian and economic assistance if the new Syrian regime adopts a balanced policy – one that ensures the country’s territorial integrity, protects ethnic and religious minorities, and distances Iran’s proxies.
The two events mentioned above clearly demonstrate the prominent role Saudi Arabia has assumed under the leadership of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), a role also evident during the Israel-Gaza War. For instance, on November 11–12, 2023, following a summit of African states, Saudi Arabia hosted a summit bringing together the Arab and Muslim worlds to discuss the wars in Gaza and Lebanon.
This summit convened both the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation – marking the first time in history that these two organizations met simultaneously in the same location. This move by the Saudis served as a clear statement of their intent and their leadership role in the Arab, Islamic, and African spheres.
However, it appears that the crown prince’s ambitions are not confined to the region but are also global, relating to both the diplomatic and economic spheres, as well as to softer areas such as sports and media.
DIPLOMATICALLY, SAUDI Arabia has established, in partnership with the European Union, the Global Alliance for the Implementation of the Two-State Solution, an international coalition with some 90 member states. The Saudi declaration that normalization with Israel will not be pursued without a Palestinian state – a significant change of position by the Saudis in the wake of the war – indicates their desire to lead an international process to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
In the economic sphere, Saudi Arabia is the largest economy in the Middle East. Its Vision 2030 development plan was designed to reduce the country’s dependence on oil incomes by developing new areas of economic activity. The Saudis want to develop other economic areas apart from oil, gas, and petrochemicals, and become a country that attracts tens of millions of tourists every year, with sports – and especially football – an important tool for advancing this policy.
Saudi Arabia has three key advantages in this regard. First, it holds the largest oil reserves in the world, producing approximately three million barrels a day, with the capacity to quickly increase production. In the event of a disruption to global oil supply, Saudi Arabia, alongside the United Arab Emirates, could produce an additional four million barrels daily, rapidly compensating for the shortfall.
Equally important, Saudi Arabia can do so at a relatively low cost, as its cost of producing a barrel of oil is the lowest in the world at just $10. The second advantage is its strategic location, allowing it to serve as a key transport hub between India and Europe, with Israel potentially playing an important role in facilitating this connection.
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Saudi Arabia also serves as an important economic anchor for Egypt and Jordan. The tens of billions of dollars these countries have received over the last decade have played a crucial role in maintaining the stability of their regimes. One notable outcome of this economic aid was Egypt’s return of the Sanafir and Tiran islands to Saudi Arabia in 2017.
Additionally, Saudi Arabia’s economic leverage is expected to bolster its efforts to gain influence in Syria and Lebanon, particularly after the election of a new president in Lebanon who is not aligned with Hezbollah. It is no surprise that the Saudi foreign minister was quick to visit Lebanon after Joseph Aoun’s election on January 9.
In addition, Saudi Arabia plays an important role in terms of media in the Arab world, with its Al Arabiya network being no less popular than the Qatari Al Jazeera.
LAST BUT not least, Saudi Arabi enjoys a unique status in Islam due to the location within its borders of the holy cities of Mecca and Medina, to which more than two million Muslims make the Hajj pilgrimage each year.
Despite its relative military weakness – which it is supposed to overcome thanks to an American air defense umbrella – Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic, economic, religious, and media capabilities, alongside the charismatic leadership of MBS, position it as the natural leader of the Arab world.
These capabilities now face a new American president who seeks to economically pressure Iran while keeping oil prices low. If Trump aims to achieve his vision of resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, he will need full cooperation from Saudi Arabia. The first step in any process will, of course, be an agreement for the complete release of hostages and the end of the war, which would establish a post-conflict framework for governance in Gaza that is acceptable to both the United States and the Arab world, particularly Saudi Arabia.
For years, Egypt has been seen as the leader of the Arab world, or at least considered the “key player,” a term coined by Egyptian journalist Muhammad Husayn Haykal. While Egypt remains an important regional actor, particularly in relation to Gaza and Arab-Israeli relations, its demographic and economic challenges have weakened its position, creating a vacuum that has been filled by an increasingly assertive Saudi crown prince.
Prof. Elie Podeh teaches in the Department of Islamic and Middle Eastern Studies at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and is a board member of Mitvim – The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies. Prof. Onn Winckler is head of the Department of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies at the University of Haifa.
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