Rushing to Aid Assad, Iran Unable to Recover Hezbollah’s Losses

Photo Credit: Nasser Ishtayeh/Flash90

PA Arabs holding Syrian flags and pictures of President Bashar al-Assad during a march in the city of Shechem, April 9, 2017.

Syrian rebel fighters held their ground in Aleppo on Saturday, after breaking through the city’s defenses, while advancing south toward Hama and seizing control of government-held areas along their route.

The insurgents’ rapid offensive marked one of the most significant challenges to President Bashar al-Assad’s authority in years. In many areas, government forces, despite support from Russia and Iran, appeared to have either retreated or disbanded. Videos shared by rebels and opposition activists reportedly showed captured government soldiers in several locations, including Aleppo, Syria’s largest city, and a military airbase in the northwestern Idlib province.

Syrian rebels recently captured Assad soldiers on the M5 Highway (Aleppo-Damascus). pic.twitter.com/qzLy3TqJWC

— Adil Zd (@adil59516) November 28, 2024

It has not been a good week for the Iranian axis in the Middle East. Just days after Iran and Hezbollah were forced to accept a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon on terms that were inconvenient for them – the reality in Syria has completely changed, to the detriment of the Assad regime.

Tahrir al-Sham, the current incarnation of al-Qaeda in Syria, last week led a surprise attack with Turkish support, from the Idlib region towards the large city of Aleppo, in the northwest of the country. The attack caught the Axis at a weak point: Iran was busy dealing with the damage done to Hezbollah, which will now have a hard time sending its fighters to the aid of the Syrian President. Many have pointed to the ceasefire agreement with Israel as the inspiration for the Rebels’ attack since Hezbollah was no longer able to help Assad.

The regime itself is barely holding on to control, paying starvation wages to its soldiers and busy distributing the narcotics Captagon (a brand name of Fenethylline) to the region and the world. Assad’s troops withdrew from large parts of Aleppo almost without a fight, and will probably need heavy air support from Russia, which is engaged in the war in Ukraine, to regain control of the city.

In a phone call on Saturday, Assad told the President of the United Arab Emirates Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan that his country was capable of defeating terrorists with the help of allies and friends. But such help may not be coming.

Also on Saturday, the Iranian and Russian Foreign Ministers held a telephone call to discuss recent developments in Syria. Abbas Araghchi and Sergey Lavrov vowed their countries’ firm support for the national sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria, including the country’s government and army in confronting “terrorist groups” amid the recent developments.

But the rebels’ pace of advance is exceeding all expectations. The Assad regime is once again in significant danger of its survival. The President himself is in Moscow, and it is unclear when he will return — while rumors are rife in Damascus about an attempted coup by elements in the regime (Attempted Coup D’Etat Taking Place in Damascus).

This is good news for Israel because it will divert Iran’s attention and efforts to an arena relatively remote from the confrontation with Israel in Lebanon. Earlier last week, the Netanyahu cabinet considered the need to exert indirect pressure on Assad, to weaken his alliance with Iran after the fighting in Lebanon ended. Now, the Syrian president’s dependence on the Iranians and Russians is increasing, and Tehran has another reason to worry.

In southern Lebanon, the IDF continues to enforce the new rules of the game. In recent days, several Hezbollah cells have been attacked while attempting to cross to the area south of the Litani River or were engaged in suspicious activity near rocket launchers. Israel is signaling its uncompromising open-fire policy, and if necessary, will also escalate its responses. Several combat teams, based on regular units, remain in the field. Most of the reserve units have been released. If the security situation stabilizes, the IDF will soon consider whether to recommend that residents of the communities evacuated from the second line of the border, who are not under threat from anti-tank missile fire, return to their homes.