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Top officials also say Oct. 7 probes are overdue
By YONAH JEREMY BOB DECEMBER 3, 2024 20:11
Director General of the Israel Defense Ministry, Maj. Gen. (Res.) Eyal Zamir (right), signing an ammunition deal with CEO of Elbit Systems Bezhalel Machlis (left) on July 31, 2024
(photo credit: ISRAELI DEFENSE MINISTRY )
Defense Ministry Director-General Maj, Gen. (res.) Eyal Zamir should replace current IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi, and soon, senior defense officials told the Jerusalem Post on Tuesday.
“14 months have passed…the IDF chief needs to take the decision [to resign] relatively soon, and it needs to be a rapid process to replace him because of the continuing war and because of the broader situation,” said the officials.
They added that “the October 7 probes must be published soon…and there must be a proper transition period” to allow the incoming IDF chief to get used to the role before Halevi leaves, even if the process will need to be shorter than the several months normally allocated for the transition.
Next, the officials cited Zamir’s current role as the top non-political official of the defense ministry, his former role as deputy IDF chief, his experience in a range of other top military roles, and that he managed to work as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s military secretary without getting enveloped politically.
Their comments come after several days of renewed speculation that Halevi will step down in the coming months which has reset the debate about who should and will replace him.
Debate returns to the table
Why has this debate returned to the front lines now after two to three prior rounds of speculation which led to dead ends, given that Halevi decided to stay on?
On November 26, Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire.
Although there is no ceasefire with Gaza, Hamas has been largely militarily beaten since June, Yahya Sinwar was killed in mid-October, and there is also very little fighting there. Also, the longer the Lebanon ceasefire holds, the more likely that Iran, the Houthis, and others will think twice about trying to reignite a major fight.
This means that Halevi is closer to a point where he can declare a sort of post-October 7, 2023 victory and go out with more honor and closure than at earlier points when other military or political officials were trying to push him out.
What seems to remain is he wants to manage the rollout of the IDF probes of October 7 to put his stamp on them and prevent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from placing all of the blame on the military.
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He also had wanted to make key appointments in the military among officers in his camp to set the IDF in the direction he believes it should go.
While he has had a good deal of success in this area, recently appointed Defense Minister Israel Katz has blocked two appointments, connecting their fates to Halevi publicizing the October 7 probes.
A letter Halevi publicized at the end of last week said that the IDF was going to move forward soon with the probes after having paused their progress in August.
This past Spring, Halevi had promised to publicize all of the probes over July-August and did publicize the Beeri battle probe in July.
But a mix of pushback from field commanders that they were being criticized without the higher military echelon taking responsibility for their failures, as well as a recognition that Netanyahu would not budge even post-war on allowing a neutral state inquiry that might harshly criticize his role in October 7, led Halevi to delay the other probes until now.
Some observers now speculate that the IDF probes will be published in February and that this will mark the time period when Halevi will resign, fulfilling a repeat promise he has made since early in the war to take personal responsibility for October 7.
Following these developments, there were leaks that Strategic Affairs Command Maj. Gen. Eliezer Toledano, who also served as Netanyahu’s military secretary and was viewed by some as closer to him personally then Zamir, might vie for the post.
Toledano himself ended these rumors, saying that he will not seek to be IDF chief and that his next plan will be to retire from the IDF.
At earlier stages, there was speculation that almost the whole top military and political echelon would collectively resign over the October 7 failure.
This might have broadened the race to replace the IDF chief even to more junior major generals of the IDF high command, and some even thought to brigadier generals.
However, to date, only top officials in IDF intelligence have resigned. Not a single political official has resigned over October 7, no military officials outside of intelligence have resigned, and no top Shin Bet officials have resigned.
Sources told the Post that this means that the race will likely be a traditional race between the only two men who are serving or have served as deputy IDF chief: Zamir and current Deputy IDF Chief Maj. Gen. Amir Baram, as well as with a slightly weaker chance Northern Commander Maj. Gen. Uri Gordin.
Gordin has a storied career, and is being given significant credit for the campaign against Hezbollah in the current war, and has served in other high command positions, but has not yet been a deputy IDF chief.
Both Zamir and Baram have served in roles equal to what Gordin has, plus they have the extra position of deputy IDF chief over him, and Zamir also has his current defense ministry position over both of them.
Other outside shots could be former major generals like Nitzan Alon, who has run the war’s hostage rescue and negotiation efforts for the IDF, or even having a former IDF chief temporarily return.
But many other top IDF officials in one way or another are implicated by October 7, so the list of possibles is not as long as one might think.
“It is not clear that there will be tolerance,” for such more creative approaches said sources.
Further, the last race for the IDF chief was limited to three top major general candidates, and the competition is usually limited to the very small number of top officers who have held both top field command and top headquarters positions.
Possibly the only matter which could derail Zamir is the fact that he was also a Southern Command Chief, which could allow some to try to tar him with the October 7 failure.
However, Zamir was in that position 2015-2018 – meaning five years before the invasion, and with three other Southern Commanders coming after him and separating him from the failure.
Also, sources noted that when Zamir left the position of deputy IDF chief, he warned that the military was too small to handle its full defense roles, an that the infantry was too small within the military.
Sources said that, “we saw parts of this and the results on October 7,” when only 600 soldiers were guarding the border with Gaza from an onslaught of 6,000 Hamas and other terrorist invaders.
In terms of Gordin, he could also be appointed the next deputy IDF chief to replace Baram, who might become the next IDF chief after Zamir.
Outgoing IDF Land Forces Command Maj. Gen. Tamir Yadai could also become the next deputy IDF chief, though for now he is retiring from the military.
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