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An exclusive look at the Southern Syria former rebels who were key to defeating Assad and who met with Syrian leader Jolani on December 11.
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN DECEMBER 11, 2024 21:26
A man walks on a poster of Bashar al-Assad as a sanitation worker removes it from the street downtown, after Syrian rebels announced that they have ousted Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus, Syria December 10, 2024.
(photo credit: REUTERS/AMR ABDALLAH DALSH)
Leaders of armed groups from southern Syria who helped overthrow the Assad regime met with Abu Mohammed al-Julani, according to photos and reports posted online of the meeting. This is important because the southern Syrian groups were a key part of the Syrian revolution and rebellion. They were forced to agree to terms set by the Assad regime in 2018 under bombardment from Damascus and Russia. However, they reappeared on December 6 and helped march on Damascus.
Mohammed al-Julani is the head of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Julani’s real name is Ahmed al-Sharaa. He has been making the rounds in Damascus, visiting mosques and meeting with people to cement his leadership. He faces many challenges, but he is overcoming the initial hurdles. For instance, Syria has a new prime minister named Mohammed al-Bashir.
A key factor in Julani’s success will be how he manages ties to other groups in Syria. He has helped consolidate control of Deir Ezzor already and managed relations with the Turkish-backed SNA near Aleppo.
In southern Syria, he now appears to be meeting the leaders who have held sway there for years. According to reports, he met with leaders from the Dara’a governorate. These included Ahmed al-Audeh as well as his close associate Ali Al-Sabah al-Muqdad. In addition, Muayad Al-Aqra, who is also known as Abu Hayyan, attended the meeting. He is from the town of Hayt near the southern Golan. The men represent areas often known as Busra al-Sham, which is near the Jordanian border. The wider region in this area is called the Hauran.
Ahmed al-Audeh, whose name is sometimes spelled Oda or Awda, was a key leader of the Syrian rebels in southern Syria until 2018, when the groups were forced to come to terms with Assad’s army. They were “reconciled” and joined a military formation known as the Russian-backed Fifth Corps. Audeh came to command its 8th Brigade. His role over the next several years was complex, and his reputation suffered due to perceptions that he was collaborating with Russia.
Audeh comes from the town of Busra al-Sham and was a commander of a group called Shabab Ahl al-Sunnah back in 2015. He worked with and then opposed other groups, such as Al-Muthanna and Jubhat al-Nusrah. Nusrah later became HTS.
Audeh became closely connected to the Operations Center in Jordan, which ostensibly gave him and the southern Syrian rebels connections with the US, UK, and other western and Gulf states. Now, he is back in the spotlight. It appears his close associate Ali Bash, also known as Ali Al-Sabah Al-Muqdad, is also key to what happens next. Muqdad is also from Busra al-Sham and has studied economics in Dara’a.
These former 5th Corps reconciled rebels continue to be the main group. They claim to have been the first to have entered Damascus on December 8. They entered in the morning, and they also helped take Assad’s prime minister out of his house to a hotel to help with the transition. Most of them returned to Dara’a after December 8. Although Audeh has control of his factions, there is another officer named Naseem Abu Ara who held a rank of colonel and defected years ago from the regime army.
Audeh’s group and those of smaller factions such as Abu Hayyan are thought to be the strongest group in southern Syria, including in areas near the Golan. It is assumed they will have a role in the future government of Syria.
Meanwhile, in Maghawir al-Thawra, a US-backed group that was trained in Tanf near the Jordanian border, also has several hundred fighters. It tried to advance toward Damascus and took some areas in Homs governorate. However, it does not seem this group has been able to leverage this operation to get a place in the new Syrian system that is emerged. This remains to be seen.
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What do Syrian groups think about Israel?
What do these groups in southern Syria think about Israel? It should be recalled that some factions in this area once received humanitarian aid from Israel. Medical volunteers were also evacuated through Israel to Jordan in 2018.
The issue of Israel and the Golan does not seem to be a priority in Damascus. They are focused on stability and seizing power in other regions in Syria. According to sources, this depends on Israel’s behavior as well. Many people may resent Israel, but they are more angry at Russia and Iran’s harm to Syria over the last decade. They are seen as having used the Palestinian cause to oppress people in Syria. It will depend on Israel’s next actions, a source says.
Meanwhile, there is the question of what happens in Albukamal, the town on the border of Iraq on the Euphrates River. On the Iraqi border, it is of strategic importance. Iranian militias previously held influence in this area. In the past, ISIS and extremist groups also transited this area. It is believed this could be a flashpoint.
The SDF has withdrawn from Deir Ezzor and Albukamal after having taken these areas on December 7. It is unclear which group will control Albukamal. This is a key region because ISIS has cells in the desert here, and Iran has some influence as well.
ISIS is still a threat as well. They exist in the desert between Deir Ezzor and Homs. If there is no stability in Syria, then ISIS will exploit it, sources say.
HTS is concentrating on stabilizing the situation. Another key area is Suwaida, the Druze down. This mountainous area is important, and it is different from the desert to the east and the areas near Jordan and Golan.
The Druze have come to oppose the regime in the last several years after feeling oppressed, despite some of them having been conscripted and served with the regime during the civil war. The question is how HTS will work with this area to provide some kind of agreement and autonomy.
Many things are up in the air. The collapse of the regime happened faster than many observers expected. This also shifted the developments regarding the SDF moving into areas such as Deir Ezzor and Albukamal, as well as the US-backed Maghawir al-Thawra being able to advance. Because of this, any Western plans about what might come next in southern Syria were shelved.
The result was a short bombing campaign by the US-led coalition against ISIS to strike ISIS cells in the desert and a multi-day bombing campaign by Israel to destroy regime military assets.
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