Southern Syria's resurgence brings Jordan and Iraq back in key roles

Jordan seeks to ensure regional security and stability, including in Syria, including by involving the international community in these prospects.

By SETH J. FRANTZMAN DECEMBER 14, 2024 15:45

Damage around Qamishli International Airport area, in Syria, December 10, 2024 (photo credit: REUTERS/Orhan Qereman)

King Abdullah II of Jordan is concerned about developments in southern Syria. He knows very well the issues involved there because Jordan hosted many Syrian refugees after the Syrian civil war broke out in 2011. In addition, Iranian-backed gangs in Syria have been involved in the smuggling of captogon and other drugs that threaten the Kingdom. Southern Syrian rebel groups were also closely connected to Amman and Western backing via Jordan from 2014-2018.

According to an article in Anadolu in Turkey, the king of Jordan “emphasized on Friday that guaranteeing Syria’s security strengthens the region’s overall stability and urged coordinated international efforts to achieve this goal.” The King made the comments during a call with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. They discussed "regional updates, particularly the situation in Syria," according to a Jordanian Royal Court statement.

Jordan wanted to ensure security and stability in Syria. The kingdom seeks to “reinforce security and stability across the region.” It hopes the international community will be involved. Jordan has close ties with Western militaries, including the US and UK. However, US forces in Jordan have also come under attack from Iranian-backed militias in Iraq. In January, Kataib Hezbollah killed three Americans at a site called Tower 22 in eastern Jordan. The US also has backed a Syrian rebel group at Tanf in Syria near the Jordanian border. The Kingdom of Jordan is also close to the Gulf states. Some Gulf states had reconciled with the Assad regime, and the Kingdom had also sought better ties with Assad, only to watch him collapse.

The south Syrian rebel groups are important to Jordan. They rolled into Damascus on December 8. Ahmed Audeh and other South Syrian rebel commanders are well known to Amman. They had reconciled with the regime in 2018 and now have returned to helping overthrow Assad. Their future remains uncertain. In 2018, when the rebels collapsed, Jordan helped medical volunteers from southern Jordan flee via Jordan to northern Syria. The volunteers initially went via Israel and then via Jordan, showing the shared concerns the Kingdom and Israel have in this matter.

The Kingdom is also laser-focused on the Gaza war and the West Bank. The king told the Greek leader that “the first step to de-escalating tensions in the region is an immediate halt to Israel’s war on Gaza.” He also discussed the ceasefire in Lebanon.

Jordan's King Abdullah II ibn Al Hussein addresses the 79th United Nations General Assembly at UN headquarters in New York, US, September 24, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/BRENDAN MCDERMID)

Meanwhile, the US and Iraq discussed Syria as well. United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken was in Baghdad on Friday and met with Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani of Iraq. “We spent time talking about, understandably, the situation in Syria and the conviction of so many countries in the region and beyond that as Syria transitions from the Assad dictatorship to, hopefully, a democracy, it does so in a way that, of course, protects all of the minorities in Syria that produces an inclusive, nonsectarian government and does not in any way become a platform for terrorism,” Blinken said.

Controlling borders 

Iraq shares a long border with Syria. Part of the border is held by the US-backed SDF. Another part of the border was controlled by the Assad regime up until December 8. When the regime collapsed, the SDF took control briefly of Albukamal in Syria on the border. Now, it appears that HTS-backed forces will control that part of the border. HTS is the main group that overthrew Assad. However, US-backed forces who operate from Tanf called the Syrian Free Army may also have a role to play in this area. There are many things in flux, and Southern Syria is very important in this regard. This area was a transit point for Iranian weapons going to Hezbollah via Albukamal. It was also a transit point for insurgents entering Iraq from 2004 to 2011, therefore the corridor along the middle Euphrates river valley must be stabilized. The SDF, HTS, the US, Iraqis, and Jordanians all have a possible role to play.