Syria’s collapse: An opportunity and a risk for Israel – editorial

With Syrian rebel forces rapidly advancing south toward Damascus after already taking Aleppo and Hama, the ground in Syria is shifting.

By JPOST EDITORIAL DECEMBER 8, 2024 09:42

An anti-regime fighters stands in front of a damaged portrait of Syria's President Bashar al-Assad spread on a government building in Hama, a day after rebels captured the Syrian central-west city, on December 6, 2024. (photo credit: MOHAMMED AL-RIFAI/AFP via Getty Images)

The fall of Assad, an implacable foe of Israel who turned Syria into a staging ground for Iranian threats and weapons transfers to Hezbollah, is not something Israel would lament.

With Syrian rebel forces rapidly advancing south toward Damascus after already taking Aleppo and Hama, the ground in Syria is shifting.

This shift is due in no small measure to the twin blows Israel dealt Hezbollah and Iran since the launch of Operation Northern Arrows in mid-September, aimed at returning displaced Israeli residents to their homes along the northern border.

In its war in Lebanon, Israel decapitated Hezbollah’s leadership, killed and wounded thousands of its fighters, and significantly degraded its missile and rocket capabilities. Hezbollah, which once fought in Syria to prop up the dictatorial regime of President Bashar al-Assad, is in no position to help Assad today as his regime has crumbled.

Nor, for that matter, is Iran, Assad’s chief backer alongside Russia.

Syrian anti government fighters celebrate as they pour into the captured central-west city of Hama on December 6, 2024. (credit: MUHAMMAD HAJ KADOUR/AFP via Getty Images)

Iran also suffered blows at the hands of Israel – most notably the destruction of much of its air defense network and critical missile manufacturing infrastructure during Jerusalem’s retaliatory raid on October 26.

With Hezbollah severely weakened and Hamas in Gaza also no longer an effective proxy, Iran – which has made an art form of sending others to be killed to further its own interests – finds itself unable to provide Assad with the same level of assistance it once did. It also struggles to project the same regional power if wielded just a few months ago.

Assad’s other ally, Russia, whose intervention in the civil war in 2015 tipped the scales in his favor, is also unable to give Assad what it did in the past, preoccupied and overextended with its own war in Ukraine.

With Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia weakened – two of them due to Israeli action – Syrian rebels seized the opportunity to advance, launching their offensive on the same day a ceasefire was implemented in Lebanon. Hezbollah, weary and depleted, was in no position to counter the rebel advance.

Fall of Assad

The fall of Assad, an implacable foe of Israel who turned Syria into a staging ground for Iranian threats and weapons transfers to Hezbollah, is not something Israel would lament. However, the composition of the rebel forces threatening Assad’s regime is not an alliance that the Jewish state can applaud.

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They are led by Sunni jihadists recently aligned with al-Qaeda and who remain on America’s list of terrorist organizations and also include Turkish-backed Islamists.

Israel has a clear interest in seeing Syria removed from Iran’s  “Axis of Resistance,” ending its role as a host for Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps operatives and Iranian-sponsored militias and as a potential launchpad for attacks against Israel.

Syria under Assad was a crucial pillar of Hezbollah’s strength in Lebanon, serving as the main conduit for smuggling missiles and advanced weaponry into the country. If Syria is taken out of the equation, Hezbollah – already reeling from Israel’s onslaught – will face even greater difficulties rebuilding.

This would be welcome news for many in Lebanon seeking freedom from Hezbollah and Iran’s stranglehold. One significant side effect of Assad’s fall could be a chance for the Lebanese to finally regain control of their own country.

Developments along with complications 

While these developments are largely positive for Israel, they come with complications. Jerusalem has no interest in seeing its neighbor to the northeast taken over by Sunni jihadists of the al-Qaeda ilk or Turkish-backed Islamists. Israel’s experience with such groups – like Hamas in Gaza – has been anything but encouraging.

What happens in Syria will most definitely have an impact on Israel in the future, which is why Jerusalem must keep a vigilant eye there, sending messages to all concerned that there are two developments it will not tolerate. The first is chemical weapons depots falling into the hands of jihadist or Islamist rebels, and the second is the mass deployment of Iranian troops into the country.

Those are redlines that, if crossed, would severely compromise Israel’s national security and would necessitate immediate Israeli action to prevent.

Beyond these redlines, however, Israel can do little to positively impact developments inside Syria, other than working behind the scenes with the US to establish channels with more moderate elements in the opposition, hoping they will emerge as a constructive force in shaping Syria’s future if and when Assad falls.