Syria’s Earthquake and the Aftershock in Lebanon

Photo Credit: Tasnim News Agency

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi meets with Syria's President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus, Dec. 1, 2024

he collapse of Assad’s regime in Syria was celebrated with jubilation and huge mass demonstrations in Lebanon, especially in the Sunni-dominated areas such as Tripoli, Sidon, and parts of the capital, Beirut.

However, after the first celebrations, the Sunni-led Islamists, and, first and foremost, the deeply-anchored Jamaah Islamiya who had joined Hizbullah in the conflict against Israel, turned their attention toward the Lebanese state and demanded the release of Sunni prisoners incarcerated in state prisons, sometimes waiting years for trial. Eying the release of Islamists in Syrian prisons following the collapse of the Assad regime, the Lebanese Islamists demanded amnesty for all Islamists and jihadists. Their December 10 protest was led by Sheikh Ahmad Shemali from Tripoli who, facing the notorious prison of Roumieh, called for immediate amnesty, claiming that “this is the beginning of the escalation and we shall continue,” promising further steps and protests.

It is noteworthy that the Sunni community in Lebanon has awakened from its lethargy into a proactive movement encouraged by the takeover of Syria by the jihadi Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). They mean to reassert Sunni dominance over the weakened Shiite Hizbullah following the heavy blows dealt to the movement by Israel and the Alawite/Shiite defeat in Syria.

Since amnesty is a prerogative of the speaker of the Lebanese parliament, it seems unlikely that the present speaker, Nabih Berri, leader of the Shiite Amal movement and actually an ally of Hizbullah, would initiate a political move and grant amnesty for the hundreds of Islamists incarcerated under the accusation of terrorism. Such a step would mean that the Lebanese body politic is willing to lay the ground for the renewed historical hegemony of Syria on Lebanon, this time through the channels of the Lebanese Sunni community opening towards the sister Sunni regime in Syria.

No doubt that the whole Lebanese political system is in turmoil. The Shiite community is trying to cope with the weakness of Hizbullah following its poor campaign against Israel. Heavily bruised by Israel and losing its popular support with the fall of Bashar Assad, Hizbullah is trying to survive as a military force and a central political player in Lebanon.

The tempestuous December 6 meeting between  Lebanese Armed Forces Commander General Joseph Aoun, and Hizbullah’s Wafiq Safa, the coordinator between Hizbullah and the army, has proven that the movement will face dire times to maintain its military presence in south Lebanon. Aoun, supported by the United States, is considered a leading candidate for president.

Aoun and Safa met to discuss the implementation of the ceasefire agreement south of the Litani River. Safa apparently refused to surrender all weapons to the army.  Aoun responded:

The Army had insisted that all members of the Lebanese government sign the ceasefire agreement – including Hizbullah ministers. Accordingly, the Army will fully implement the agreement and will confiscate weapons and storage sites in both the South and North of the Litani, as well as any other weapons caches, regardless of their type.

The tension might force a compromise on the identity of the next president to be elected on January 9, 2025, which could be an anti-Hizbullah candidate.

The Christian community is still divided and desperately trying to find a candidate of compromise who could be elected president in January. The Free Patriotic Movement headed by Jibran Bassil, President Michel Aoun’s son-in-law, is accused of collaborating with Hizbullah and the Assad regime. Michel Aoun signed the historic agreement with Hizbullah in 2006, an agreement which opened the presidency for him while allowing Hizbullah to tighten its grip on Lebanon and build itself into a sophisticated military machine that controlled Lebanon.

Facing Jibran Bassil are:

1. The leader of the Lebanese Forces, Samir Geagea
2. The head of the Kataeb Party, Samy Gemayel
3. The leader of the Constitutional Bloc, Camille Chamoun.

Together, the three do not represent the biggest Christian party; they are not strong enough to impose their candidate for president.

Finally, the Sunni community is awakening to a new reality. Lebanon’s neighbor is now a Sunni regime, a situation that could cause irredentist currents and create a state of instability in Lebanon. Lebanese politicians are expressing their fears about the possibility of contagion in the Sunni areas. The conquest of the border town of Arsal by ISIS in 2013 and the battle that followed are still vivid in the Lebanese collective memory. The unrest manifested in the Sunni areas is being interpreted as a warning sign that might indicate a readiness from the Lebanese jihadists to import the Syrian upheaval into Lebanon.

Events in Lebanon will be influenced by events in Syria. Ahmad al Sharaa (aka Abu Mohammed al-Jolani), the leader of the anti-Assad campaign, openly supported Lebanese army chief Joseph Aoun for the presidency. Meeting with journalists, Jolani said, “We have no plans to interfere in Lebanon. If the Lebanese agree on Joseph Aoun as president, we will support him.” He added, “We have no issues with Lebanon. On the contrary, we do not want to intervene or pressure this country as happened in the past.”

This leads to the assessment that the new Syrian regime has no intention to lead subversive activities against Lebanon for the time being.

However, as long as the new Syrian regime is busy consolidating its positions and finding a common denominator with the different factions and communities that took part in ousting Assad, the side effects on Lebanon will be limited even if this means instability in the short- and medium-range.

{Reposted from JCPA}