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Parts of Syria remain in stasis despite the country's recent massive upheaval.
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN JANUARY 1, 2025 17:21
Syria's de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani speaks during an interview, after the ousting of Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus, Syria, December 28, 2024.
(photo credit: AL ARABIYA TV/Handout via REUTERS)
Three weeks before the new year, Syria’s Assad regime, a regime had been in power for fifty years, fell. While this means that Syria has an unprecedented opportunity to turn a new page and begin 2025 with a fresh start, not everything in Syria will get one.
While Damascus has been taken by Syrian opposition groups and the new leader of Syria, Abu Mohammed al-Julani (Ahmed al-Shara’a), appears to be trying burnish his image as an inclusive leader, there are parts of Syria that are in stasis.
What this means is that parts of northern Syria is still occupied by Turkey and the Ankara-backed Syrian National Army.
The SNA is a group of militias, many of them made up of Sunni Arabs or Turkmen, who Turkey has backed. Many of these groups are known for committing crimes against locals.
Turkey does not look ready to withdraw from Syria. That means that the areas it occupies, such as Afrin and Serekaniya, may continue to suffer under oppressive rule.
Ankara’s policies against the Kurdish minority
Afrin, for instance, was once a Kurdish area. The Kurds, though, were forced to flee in 2018, and other Syrians have been settled in their areas.
This is part of Ankara’s policies against the Kurdish minority. Turkey claims to be fighting “terrorism” but there is no evidence there are terrorist groups in Syria threatening Turkey to the degree that Ankara claims.
Another part of Syria that enters 2025 with the same problems it faced in 2024, is eastern Syria.
This is an area where the US has forces that are backing the Syrian Democratic Forces fighting ISIS.
The SDF was formed in 2015 and it has been a success. However, Turkey views the SDF as linked to “terrorism” because it claims it is linked to the YPG and PKK, which Ankara views as terrorist groups.
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This puts the SDF in the crosshairs. It also means eastern Syria is always at risk of a new conflict. Meanwhile the new government in Damascus likely wants to incorporate eastern Syria into its new administration.
The government in Damascus is moving slowly to try to figure out what to do with eastern Syria and the Turkish-occupied parts of Syria.
It would like to bring SNA groups into a new unified armed force. It’s unclear how it would also incorporate the SDF, because Ankara has close ties with Damascus and would not want to see the SDF involved in the new Syria.
This means there are many bridges that are difficult to cross for Syria.
Where the new administration in Damascus has excelled is in trying to bring together existing opposition groups and sit down with minorities such as the Christians and Druze, and appear to want to build an inclusive Syrian government.
However the authorities also say it will take years to write a new constitution and hold elections.
In addition, Syria lacks the arms and defense weapons to build a strong new cohesive military.
On another level, the administration has appeared to appoint loyalists from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the group that led the march on Damascus in early December.
Among those appointed to new ranks are some foreign volunteers. This illustrates that while foreigners who fought as part of HTS may get benefits, there are swaths of Syria that still are not being represented. This means that the new administration may be showing one face to the public in terms of inclusion, but have other ideas when it comes to practical appointments.
What matters is that Syria is hopeful. New Years celebrations went off well in Syria. People are hopeful.
This is especially true in Aleppo, Homs, Hama and Damascus. It is less clear in places like Manbij, Afrin, and eastern Syria.
Are they hopeful for what 2025 may bring? In eastern Syria, the US may want to withdraw its forces. US President Donald Trump tried to do this during his first term. However when he left office there were still between 600-2,000 US troops in eastern Syria.
Trump may be flexible when he looks at Syria this time. However, he may judge that the new government in Damascus can do the job.
Turkey and Qatar both have close ties with Washington as allies and they have contacts with the incoming US administration.
They may suggest the US wrap up its role in Syria. This could produce chaos, or it could produce opportunities for unity. It depends a lot on how countries act to make sure there is a transition.
While many European countries are engaging with the new administration in Damascus, Israel is more wary.
Israeli officials have gone on record discussing the importance of protectingSyrian minorities such as the Kurds and the Druze. Israel currently operates along the Golan border in some Syrian villages.
This could turn tense if Syrians grow tired of the IDF presence or if enemies exploit this situation. There are many questions about what Israel will do in the next year in Syria.
Another question revolves around the Islamic State in Syria.
ISIS has some men in the Syrian desert between Palmyra and Albukamal. It may want to exploit the situation to carry out attacks.
The US also has a garrison at Tanf in Syria. The garrison in this area of southern Syria supports the Syrian Free Army, a small group of former Syrian rebels who may want to play a larger role as well.
These are all areas of importance and should be closely monitored.
English (US) ·